Bilal-Sattar

Gold is no longer rising quietly. With prices now pushing toward the $4,900 level, the move has become impossible to ignore. But this is not a rally driven by inflation alone or a simple flight to safety.
As outlined in a recent thread by Aakash Group, gold is being pulled higher by three powerful forces acting at the same time; a combination that has rarely occurred in modern financial history.
Each of these factors would normally support higher gold prices on its own. Together, they are changing how the market views the metal entirely.
Force 1: The Greenland Tariff War and a New Kind of Geopolitical Risk
The first catalyst is geopolitical, and it is unusually direct.
President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on imports from eight NATO allies, including Germany, France, the UK, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, and Finland. Those tariffs are set to rise to 25% by June if negotiations fail.
The demand behind this move is extraordinary: the “complete and total purchase” of Greenland.
This is the U.S. threatening its closest military partners with economic pressure over an Arctic territory that holds strategic and resource importance.
France has already pushed the European Union to consider deploying its Anti-Coercion Instrument, a legal mechanism that could trigger up to €93 billion in retaliatory tariffs against U.S. goods.
Markets are responding quickly. Gold rose roughly 10% in the first three weeks of January alone, as investors began repricing geopolitical risk not as distant or theoretical, but immediate and systemic.
Gold thrives when alliances fracture and trade rules are weaponized, and this situation fits that pattern perfectly.
Everyone is missing what’s actually happening here.Gold isn’t surging because of one thing. Three simultaneous forces are converging for the first time in history, and none of them are stopping.Force 1: The Greenland
Force 2: The Fed Independence Crisis
The second force is institutional and far more dangerous for financial markets.
On January 9, the U.S. Department of Justice opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over renovation costs. Powell responded publicly, making it clear that political pressure was colliding with central bank decision-making.
Soon after, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly defended the investigation, while Trump openly attacked Powell, stating that he would “be gone soon.”
Powell is now involved in Supreme Court proceedings tied to whether Trump can remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook; a case that directly touches the question of whether the Federal Reserve can remain politically independent.
Markets are no longer assuming that Fed independence is guaranteed.
Once that assumption weakens, the dollar weakens with it. And when confidence in monetary governance erodes, gold becomes a default hedge not just against inflation, but against institutional instability itself.
This is not a typical rate-cycle story. It is a credibility story.
Read also: Here’s Why Bitcoin (BTC) Price Could Rally After Gold
Force 3: The Central Bank Stampede
The third force is monetary and global.
China’s central bank has now completed 14 consecutive months of gold purchases, adding an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 ounces per month. These are not tactical trades. They are strategic reserves.
More importantly, estimates suggest China’s true gold holdings may be closer to 5,411 tonnes, compared to the officially reported 2,304 tonnes.
At the same time, China launched mBridge in partnership with the UAE; a digital settlement platform that allows countries to trade directly without using the U.S. dollar. This is not symbolic. It is the construction of a parallel monetary system.
Western capital is following a similar path. In 2025 alone, gold ETFs attracted a record $89 billion in inflows. The SPDR Gold Trust now holds over 1,073 metric tons, a three-year high.
These buyers are not chasing short-term momentum. They accumulate regardless of price, because their objective is protection, not speculation.
Read also: Forget Gold? Why You Need to Consider Copper as an Investment Bet
The Bigger Picture
Gold at $4,800 is not pricing one risk. It is pricing three structural shifts at the same time:
• The breakdown of trans-Atlantic political cohesion• The politicization of monetary authority• The slow construction of a post-dollar reserve system
This is why major institutions are adjusting their long-term outlooks.
JP Morgan has set a $5,000 target by Q4 2026. Goldman Sachs has stated that if just 1% of the $27 trillion U.S. Treasury market rotated into gold, prices would move well beyond $5,000.
Predictions of gold hitting $5,000 within days may be exaggerated. But reaching those levels over the next year is grounded in capital flows and market structure.
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