Paxton_

Back when I first entered crypto, I thought investing was simple.
Find a great project.
Buy it.
Wait.
Make money.
Turns out, markets don’t work like that.
In fact, some of the best assets in history spent years making their investors miserable.
Amazon lost around 95% after the dot-com bubble. Bitcoin has crashed more than 80% several times. Ethereum fell more than 90% after the 2018 cycle.
None of those projects were broken.
Yet their prices certainly looked broken.
That distinction matters more than most people realize.
People often assume markets reward quality. I don’t think they do. At least not immediately. Markets reward expectations. And expectations are strange things.
A mediocre project with low expectations can surprise everyone.
A great project with impossible expectations can disappoint everyone.
That’s why price and quality are cousins, not twins.
Take $BTC
Every bear market feels different while you’re living through it. Looking back, they all look strangely similar.
Prices collapse. Confidence disappears. People begin questioning things they believed six months earlier. Critics come out of hiding and explain why Bitcoin was always doomed.
And then something boring happens.
The network keeps running.
Developers keep building.
New investors slowly arrive.
Life goes on.
Reality moves at its own pace while emotions move much faster.
That gap creates opportunities, although it rarely feels like an opportunity at the time.
It feels terrible.
History outside crypto tells the same story.
People remember Amazon as one of the greatest companies ever built. What they forget is that investors once thought it was finished.
Not struggling.
Finished.
The stock lost almost everything.
But customers kept showing up. Revenue kept growing. The business itself refused to cooperate with the market’s pessimism.
Eventually the market changed its mind.
The business didn’t.
This is one reason I pay more attention to survivors than heroes.
Heroes come and go every cycle.
Survivors are much harder to find.
Thousands of crypto projects have disappeared since 2018. Some had famous founders. Some had huge communities. Some promised revolutions.
Most became footnotes.
Bitcoin survived.
Ethereum survived.
Solana survived.
That doesn’t guarantee future success. Nothing does.
But surviving multiple storms tells you something. Weak things usually don’t last very long.
Perhaps the strangest part of investing is that the best opportunities rarely feel comfortable.
If everyone agrees something is amazing, chances are the price already reflects that belief.
And when everyone believes something is hopeless, reality can quietly improve underneath the surface.
By the time the crowd notices, the easy money is usually gone.
Which means the market’s biggest rewards often go to people who are willing to look wrong before they are proven right.
Not forever.
Just long enough.
History seems to repeat that lesson over and over again.
#BTC走势分析

At $2.95 trillion, SpaceX has passed Microsoft and now ranks as the 4th biggest public company on the planet.
As of June 2026, Nvidia is still far ahead.
• Nvidia: ~$5T
• SpaceX: ~$2-3T
SpaceX would need to more than double while Nvidia stands still, or SpaceX grows much faster than Nvidia for years.
Why SpaceX Could Win
Starlink
Starlink is the main reason.
It is already a profitable business.
2025:
• Revenue: ~$11.4B
• Profit: ~$4.4B
• Users: ~10-12M
If Starlink reaches 50-100M users, it could become one of the world’s largest telecom businesses.
Starship
This is the real bet.
Starship could reduce launch costs by another order of magnitude.
If successful, SpaceX could dominate:
• Satellite launches
• Lunar missions
• Mars cargo
• Military contracts
• Space manufacturing
Most of SpaceX’s upside comes from Starship.
Network Effects
SpaceX controls:
• Rockets
• Satellites
• Internet service
Very few companies own the entire stack.
This creates a powerful moat.
Why SpaceX May Not Win
1. Starship Is Unproven
The biggest opportunity is also the biggest risk.
Repeated failures or delays could slow growth for years.
2. Valuation Is Already Huge
Much of the future is already priced in.
Perfect execution is expected.
That leaves little room for mistakes.
3. Space Industry Size
Morgan Stanley and McKinsey estimate the entire space economy could reach roughly $1-1.8T by 2035.
SpaceX alone is already valued above that range.
This means investors are pricing in businesses that do not fully exist yet.
Why Nvidia Is So Strong
Nvidia has something SpaceX does not.
Massive profits today.
AI training still runs mostly on Nvidia chips and software.
CUDA created a moat that competitors have struggled to break.
Every major AI company depends on Nvidia.
Revenue and free cash flow are enormous.
What Could Hurt Nvidia
• Custom chips from Google, Amazon and Microsoft.
• Lower AI spending.
• Competition from AMD and others.
• AI becoming cheaper and requiring fewer GPUs.
But none of these threats have seriously damaged Nvidia yet.
Deep Research View
The comparison is misleading.
Nvidia is selling picks during a gold rush.
SpaceX is building infrastructure for a future economy.
Nvidia’s advantage exists now.
SpaceX’s advantage depends on technologies that are not fully proven.
Base Case
Nvidia stays larger through most of the 2030s.
Bull Case For SpaceX
Starship works.
Starlink reaches tens of millions of users.
New industries emerge around cheap access to space.
SpaceX becomes a $10T+ company.
Probability
Can SpaceX surpass Nvidia?
Yes.
Is it the most likely outcome?
No.
The market is already valuing SpaceX as if many things go right.
Nvidia does not need a revolution to justify its size.
SpaceX still does.
That is the difference.
What’s your thoughts ?
#SpaceX #NVIDIA