Looking at price, Bitcoin left a huge 4H imbalance in the last impulse down.
I'm only in a swing-short right now, but I'm willing to add if we get a better fill of the 4H ~$76,963 imbalance and price gives a bearish trigger.
For longs, the scalp-setup this morning was too early for me so I missed that.
Imo, looking at the place in the range, the shorts are in favour.
So I'm waiting for quality retests to add potential shorts, and lower levels for better quality longs.
My short target is still to take out the ~$74,814 IRL and potentially lower. Will look for scalp-longs after the sweep to catch a potential bounce.
The ~$74,936 previous daily low is being defended for now, with the previous daily high laying at ~$77,906. Between those levels is the playing field today for now.
PDL is defended, so getting that retest in the 4H imbalance seems doable.
We've seen $BTC sell off hard in the week that followed 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings.
I see no reason this time will be different.
1 out of 9 is not exactly the kind of odds anyone should be interested in betting on.
What we have consistently seen after these meetings is an average drop of 11% in the 7 days post‑FOMC, which would put price back near the $70K region over the next week if it repeats.
Based on the last month of price action, I don’t believe bulls will just let structure fold that easily.
However, the recent bullish environment has dragged a lot of optimistic positioning in, so it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that it's getting sold into
Ultimately that's what these environments are engineered for.
Overall, once the meeting is out of the way, the price action has typically resolved lower within the first 7 days.
After yesterday’s break below the range, price has retested the lows and got rejected hard.
The key support level we bounced from has now been tested a second time, but this time bearish momentum was strong enough to break below.
If we get a confirmed close below this zone, which seems likely, there’s a good chance we see further continuation to the downside.
The next key area to watch is $74K. This level not only represents strong support but also lines up with a massive liquidity cluster, making it a likely target.
We’ve lost the two-level support of the trendline and the $77.3K liquidity zone.
We’re also now seeing Coinbase Premium flash consecutive red readings for the first time in 3 weeks, since $67K.
This entire move has been riding in direct correlation with US spot demand, and the trendline has acted as the technical support for that demand.
This could be derisking price action into FOMC over the next 48 hours, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see scam wicks in both directions because of the meeting.
But there is little doubt this uptrend is entering its latter stages.
Good morning everyone. New week. Hope all of you had a nice weekend.
Im not shorting just yet. I need some structure as drawn on h4. We are however trading at resistance, and I think it is wise to be cautious until we see something more definitive in regard to continuation to the upside to get into longs here.
Certainly a massive point of interest to trade around so it could set up some nice trades as long as patience is practiced.