I'm Irfan. After years in the crypto trenches, I blog to share real insights—stripping away the hype to give you a clearer view of the market. Let’s navigate it
🚨 SAUDI ARABIA JUST BECAME THE BIGGEST WAR PROFITEER IN HISTORY
Saudi Arabia is America's closest ally. And they are getting rich from a war America is fighting. Here is the proof.
💀 Saudi exports BEFORE the war: 6,660,000 barrels per day. 💀 Saudi exports NOW: 3,330,000 barrels per day. 💀 That is a 50% DROP.
💀 Oil price BEFORE the war: $67 per barrel. 💀 Oil price NOW: $130 per barrel. 💀 Saudi added $19.50 per barrel premium on Asian buyers. 💀 That is the HIGHEST premium in history.
⚠️ They are selling HALF the oil at DOUBLE the price with a RECORD fee on top. ⚠️ The math says they are making MORE money than before the war.
⚠️ The IEA called this the largest supply disruption in global oil market history. ⚠️ The supply loss is 10,000,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ fixed 206,000 of it. On purpose.
Let that sink in.
Now the part nobody will say out loud.
Saudi bypassed the Strait of Hormuz entirely. Their East-West pipeline now carries 7,000,000 barrels per day to the Red Sea.
Korean and Indian refiners are rerouting to Saudi's Yanbu port for the first time ever.
Saudi does not need Hormuz open. Saudi was NEVER going to suffer from Hormuz closing.
And Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain are PRIVATELY urging Trump to keep fighting Iran. They want Iran weakened further before any ceasefire deal happens.
Because every week of war is another week of record oil prices. Every week of record prices is another week of record Saudi revenue.
If Saudi wanted Hormuz reopened, why did they spend billions on a pipeline to avoid it?
If Saudi was suffering, why are they charging the highest markup in history right now?
If Saudi is a loyal ally, why are they privately pushing for more bombing of a country America is already bombing?
Complete silence.
This is not an oil story. This is not a US-Iran story. This is a war profiteering story.
And the profiteer is the country hosting American military bases.
i lose followers every time i post the hard truth.. and i post it anyway.
15. 🇹🇿 Tanzania — 60 t 15. 🇨🇴 Colombia — 60 t 15. 🇧🇫 Burkina Faso — 60 t 13. 🇲🇱 Mali — 70 t 13. 🇧🇷 Brazil — 70 t 10. 🇿🇦 South Africa — 100 t 10. 🇵🇪 Peru — 100 t 10. 🇮🇩 Indonesia — 100 t 9. 🇺🇿 Uzbekistan — 120 t 6. 🇲🇽 Mexico — 130 t 6. 🇰🇿 Kazakhstan — 130 t 6. 🇬🇭 Ghana — 130 t 5. 🇺🇸 United States — 160 t 4. 🇨🇦 Canada — 200 t 3. 🇦🇺 Australia — 290 t 2. 🇷🇺 Russia — 310 t 1. 🇨🇳 China — 380 t
(Note: Data estimated for 2024; latest available in early 2026. Top 17 account for ~76% of global production. Remaining 780 t distributed among other countries, each with less than 60 t.)
Source: U.S. Geological Survey – Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025
In the future, it would be perfectly logical to issue event tickets as NFTs. But if we look even deeper, I really like the idea behind Vechain (though not its price action 😄).
Vechain’s technology can be used — and in some cases already is being used — for logistics, supply chain management, and product tracking. Unfortunately, that utility has yet to be reflected on the chart.
Imagine a company like Nike releasing a new pair of sneakers. For just a fraction of a cent in VET fees, each pair could be assigned a unique NFT with its own QR code and digital identity. As the product moves through the supply chain and eventually reaches retail stores, its authenticity and history could be tracked on-chain.
Then, whenever someone finds that pair on the secondary market, they could simply scan the QR code and instantly verify whether the product is genuine or counterfeit.
And not just sneakers — potentially any physical product in the world.
I hope projects like AVAX and VET continue to find broader real-world adoption and meaningful use cases over time.
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A historical maximum has been reached in the volume of BTC supply held by long-term holders (79%)
According to K33 Research, the indicator of old coins being reactivated has reached its lowest level since 2012, which reduces the pressure from sellers
🔥 Test full indicators set for FREE ✉️ DM to get an access - @crypto4lightfounder
📢Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has published an English version of the U.S.-Iran MoU, signed by himself, Trump, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
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🇮🇷🇺🇸Iran has reportedly suspended its 60-day negotiation process with the U.S. following Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon.
➡️ Iran has canceled its planned trip to Switzerland for the first round of talks and says negotiations will remain paused until it receives assurances that attacks have stopped and commitments are being honored.
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A $4,000 Floor for Gold? Not If Volatility, History Are Guides
Markets are supposed to bounce back from good support, and $4,000 an ounce for gold is the first major round-number retracement target from January's peak near $5,586. Will $4,000 mark a bottom? My analysis leans toward no. We see the potential for an enduring underperformance period on the back of the parabolic rally.
I'm still crazy enough to think there's a decent chance the market sees one more leg down prior to seeing a true bottom for the cycle.
~900 days post halving is in line with what we've seen the last several bear markets.
Like I said yesterday though, that doesn't mean now isn't a good time to stack more BTC.
If you would've bought anywhere in the months surrounding the lows any of the last bear markets, you'd thank yourself in the next 12-36 months. $BSB $BR $GUA
The collective consensus amongst crypto X seems to be that the cycle bottom is in. That alone gets me pretty disinterested in looking for the low here.
Of course, the bear market according to the Havling Cycles Theory is not over until November 2026 - January 2027.
It is no surprise that "this time is different" is coming back up. This time, the plausible story is data interpretation.
A potential bullish divergence is forming on Weekly RSI, just like November 2022. Some metrics are bottoming out. From my perspective, most have not.
So, I will once again take the contrarian position during this bounce and say the cycle bottom is not in.
The opportunity I'm looking for is the trifecta of psychology, data positioning, and cycle position. $BSB $BR $GUA