A lot of traders are flipping bearish at the lows.
In my opinion, this is a do or die level for the bulls, as this is the higher low.
People overcomplicate the market too much. Try to keep it simple.
When price breaks an important zone 👉🏻 you expect trend continuation.
As long as price is holding a key zone 👉🏻 there is no need to become over-excited bullish or bearish before the market actually confirms the move.
We turned bearish based on lower timeframe and now that price is around its high timeframe important zone. There is no need to expect more downside unless price breaks this zone as well.
Can it break and go down more? Yes Do we have any confirmation? No
Most traders lose because they react emotionally before the market gives confirmation.
I’d rather be neutral than bearish at an important zone.
CRYPTO MECHANIC
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Your market view will always be dependent on the timeframe you're trading. for example If you're trading daily timeframe your invalidation is i think around $74800 from the market structure perspective and it's also around the breakout level. As long as price is above that level there is still an argument that Bitcoin is Bullish.
Things will start looking bad on the Daily if price accepted below this level. Once again the market views are dependent on the timeframe you're trading/looking at. Weekly chart will have a different level of support.
Each timeframe shows you different picture and provides different results.
$BTC Tapped the $74k - $75k zone as we discussed on Monday.
Is it an important zone? Yes. Am I buying? To be honest, no. I do not want to rush into a trade. I will give the price some time, may wait and see where this week ends.
CRYPTO MECHANIC
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Bitcoin - The Bears Are Taking Over
Bitcoin has had a strong 5 weeks to the upside, but now it looks like the bears are trying to take control. Without wasting any time, let’s jump straight into the charts, see what’s going on, and what we can expect next.
BTCUSD (Monthly)
To be honest, I don’t see much reason to look at the monthly chart right now because the monthly trend is bearish, and it would take months for the structure to shift. The only thing I want to point out is the circled area on the monthly chart. This could turn into an underside retest, and the reason I’m saying that is because the weekly chart did something similar when it broke the weekly bullish structure.
The weekly chart broke its structure when Bitcoin dropped below the $98k–100k range, and after that it gave an underside retest before continuing lower. The monthly chart is kind of doing the same thing right now. Is it a concern? Yeah, I think so. But am I worried? No, because I don’t trade based on the monthly chart, so it doesn’t really bother me much. BTCUSD (Weekly)
In last week’s update, I said Bitcoin is fine as long as it can hold above $78k. But personally, I’m not looking to buy anything here. I’d rather look for selling opportunities because the overall weekly trend is still bearish, and the bears will try to defend that structure.
And i publicly got out of my trades when price pumped to $82k on "Clarity Act" News. Anyways What is next?
The focus will remain on the same zone that we were using to stay bullish. Now that the price is below the $78k–79.4k range, I don’t really see a reason to stay bullish. The nearest support zone is around $72k–75k. As long as we don’t see a reclaim of the $78k–79.4k zone, I think more downside is possible. Personally, I’ll just stay on the sidelines and wait for the next buying opportunity, whether that comes above $79k again or at lower prices. Doesn’t really matter to me. BTCUSD (Daily)
The daily chart is the one we used the most for our trade executions, and I think price trapped a lot of bulls above the $80k region. You guys know we’ve been using this daily internal bullish structure for our trades, and besides the fake-out above $80k, the structure is still bullish on the daily chart. If price drops to $75k, I think bulls need to hold that level at all costs. BTCUSD (4hr)
I think the zones are pretty clear. $78k-79k key Resistance $74k-75k Key support I will do nothing as long as price is trading in between. That’s pretty much it for this Bitcoin update. I don’t want to drag it on for too long. Let me know what do you think, your opinions are Always welcome
$SUI Spiked up straight into the last supply area. Spikes are normal after this much of the downside. I played the move from $0.97 to $1.40 and i am not in rush to get in again.
If it reclaims $1.16 and holds then the chart will get interesting again. One spike isn't really enough.
We observed the weakness, managed our risk and saved money. 🤝 You dont have to leave your position for Stoploss. Cutting it early when you observe the price weakness is always a good idea.
CRYPTO MECHANIC
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Leaving stop at Breakeven on $SOL Bitcoin is failing to show strength so playing it safe for now.
Your market view will always be dependent on the timeframe you're trading. for example If you're trading daily timeframe your invalidation is i think around $74800 from the market structure perspective and it's also around the breakout level. As long as price is above that level there is still an argument that Bitcoin is Bullish.
Things will start looking bad on the Daily if price accepted below this level. Once again the market views are dependent on the timeframe you're trading/looking at. Weekly chart will have a different level of support.
Each timeframe shows you different picture and provides different results.
$SUI Spiked up straight into the last supply area. Spikes are normal after this much of the downside. I played the move from $0.97 to $1.40 and i am not in rush to get in again.
If it reclaims $1.16 and holds then the chart will get interesting again. One spike isn't really enough.
When you look at a chart, the first thing you need to do is throw out what you want the market to do. Just look at it for what it is.
Let's say you're looking at Bitcoin. The moment you pull up that chart, you already have a bias, whether you realize it or not.
If you're holding a bunch of spot $BTC or have a long position, you'll look for more reasons for Bitcoin to be bullish. And if you don't hold any spot, if you're short, or maybe you're just holding stables waiting to buy cheaper, whatever the reason, you'll look for more reasons to be bearish. That's just human nature. We all do it.
But sometimes when you try to look at the chart objectively, you have to pretend like you don't know what coin's chart it is. Forget that you own it or not. Just look at it like "what does this chart look like? Is it in an uptrend or a downtrend?" If you look at things this way you will avoid so many things:
-Unnecessary losses -Stop cherry picking signals that agree with your position - FOMO entries: when you're not emotionally attached you stop chasing - Bias makes you stay in trades way past when the structure broke Fighting the trend. No amount of hopium changes what the chart is actually doing - Overtrading: when you're neutral on the outcome you only act when there's a real reason to - Taking a trade or exiting a trade at the right time
The chart doesn't care about your position, your entry price, or how much you believe in a project. It just does what it does. Your only job is to read it clearly.