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➡Funds are losing another $700 billion amid news that the US is deploying thousands of additional Marines and three warships to the Middle East.
BTC is still holding around ~$70k.
BTC is still holding around ~$70k.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US war with Iran has now cost an estimated $25,000,000,000 since strikes began.
➡️Powell has finished his press conference — here are the key takeaways:
⚪️ The median forecast for the rate path has not changed, but noticeably more participants now expect fewer rate cuts.
⚪️ In the short term, rising energy prices will exert upward pressure on headline inflation.
⚪️ This year it is truly important to see progress in disinflation on goods to understand whether we are making progress.
⚪️ The consequences of the oil shock will put some pressure on spending, employment, and create inflationary pressure. But no one knows the scale of the consequences in the Middle East.
⚪️ The overwhelming majority of FOMC members do not consider a rate hike as the baseline scenario, but the possibility was discussed.
⚪️ If I do not see progress in fighting inflation, you will not see rate cuts.
⚪️ The Fed is in a difficult situation and is balancing between inflation risks and the labor market, trying to avoid overly tight policy.
Overall, it is clear that Powell and the Fed themselves do not fully understand what the Middle East situation will ultimately mean for the economy. Hence — a lot of talk about inflation and much lower expectations for rate cuts.
It feels like the priority is shifting more toward inflation, even though Powell acknowledges that the Fed is in a difficult position and is trying to balance between inflation and the labor market. But we understand that under current conditions they essentially have no “right” choice, and there is a clear tilt toward fighting inflation.
Therefore, the number of rate cuts this year may be reduced — and the market reaction is corresponding.
⚪️ The median forecast for the rate path has not changed, but noticeably more participants now expect fewer rate cuts.
⚪️ In the short term, rising energy prices will exert upward pressure on headline inflation.
⚪️ This year it is truly important to see progress in disinflation on goods to understand whether we are making progress.
⚪️ The consequences of the oil shock will put some pressure on spending, employment, and create inflationary pressure. But no one knows the scale of the consequences in the Middle East.
⚪️ The overwhelming majority of FOMC members do not consider a rate hike as the baseline scenario, but the possibility was discussed.
⚪️ If I do not see progress in fighting inflation, you will not see rate cuts.
⚪️ The Fed is in a difficult situation and is balancing between inflation risks and the labor market, trying to avoid overly tight policy.
Overall, it is clear that Powell and the Fed themselves do not fully understand what the Middle East situation will ultimately mean for the economy. Hence — a lot of talk about inflation and much lower expectations for rate cuts.
It feels like the priority is shifting more toward inflation, even though Powell acknowledges that the Fed is in a difficult position and is trying to balance between inflation and the labor market. But we understand that under current conditions they essentially have no “right” choice, and there is a clear tilt toward fighting inflation.
Therefore, the number of rate cuts this year may be reduced — and the market reaction is corresponding.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC approves Nasdaq rule to allow tokenized stocks & securities trading.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Jerome Powell says most Federal Reserve members do not expect interest rate hikes.
Free gift. Follow and comment done for a free file
⚔️ ETH pumped 20% in the last 8 days.
Two big developments people missed:
1) Banks can now use tokenized securities as collateral for loans, treated the same as regular stocks or bonds by regulators. Announced by the Fed on March 6.
2) BlackRock launched an Ethereum staking ETF (ETHB) with staking yield on March 12.
ETH fundamentals are stronger than ever and sooner or later price will catch up.
Two big developments people missed:
1) Banks can now use tokenized securities as collateral for loans, treated the same as regular stocks or bonds by regulators. Announced by the Fed on March 6.
2) BlackRock launched an Ethereum staking ETF (ETHB) with staking yield on March 12.
ETH fundamentals are stronger than ever and sooner or later price will catch up.
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 SEC Chair Paul Atkins says the former administration "refused" to recognize that most crypto assets are not "securities."
⚔️ ETH pumped 20% in the last 8 days.
Two big developments people missed:
1) Banks can now use tokenized securities as collateral for loans, treated the same as regular stocks or bonds by regulators. Announced by the Fed on March 6.
2) BlackRock launched an Ethereum staking ETF (ETHB) with staking yield on March 12.
ETH fundamentals are stronger than ever and sooner or later price will catch up.
#ETH
Two big developments people missed:
1) Banks can now use tokenized securities as collateral for loans, treated the same as regular stocks or bonds by regulators. Announced by the Fed on March 6.
2) BlackRock launched an Ethereum staking ETF (ETHB) with staking yield on March 12.
ETH fundamentals are stronger than ever and sooner or later price will catch up.
#ETH
🎰 You can try to take $1 billion from Kalshi if you correctly predict the outcomes of all 63 NCAA playoff games (March Madness).
Sounds like madness — the probability is roughly 1 in 9×10¹⁵. Practically zero.
But the market loves these kinds of stories. In 2025, a Warren Buffett fund employee almost pulled off the impossible — he got 44 out of 45 games right in a similar contest and took home $1 million. The odds there were estimated at about 1 in 7×10¹¹.
For those who don’t guess all 63 correctly, there’s a consolation prize of $1 million — it goes to the participant with the best overall result.
Formally, it’s almost impossible. But as practice shows, sometimes it’s enough just to be closer to the chaos than everyone else.
Sounds like madness — the probability is roughly 1 in 9×10¹⁵. Practically zero.
But the market loves these kinds of stories. In 2025, a Warren Buffett fund employee almost pulled off the impossible — he got 44 out of 45 games right in a similar contest and took home $1 million. The odds there were estimated at about 1 in 7×10¹¹.
For those who don’t guess all 63 correctly, there’s a consolation prize of $1 million — it goes to the participant with the best overall result.
Formally, it’s almost impossible. But as practice shows, sometimes it’s enough just to be closer to the chaos than everyone else.
JUST IN: PayPal officially enables stablecoin access in 70 countries.
🤔 China-Taiwan conflict could wipe out $10 trillion and trigger a depression larger than 2008 and covid combined. - X
😮 Oil ETFs are currently in the spotlight — trading volumes at all-time highs, with a massive gap over previous peaks, while large outflows are observed from gold ETFs.
Crypto traders aren’t falling behind either: every day more and more futures volume on oil is being traded, both on DEX and CEX.
Crypto traders aren’t falling behind either: every day more and more futures volume on oil is being traded, both on DEX and CEX.
Fine
a fine or a fee?
JUST IN: Elon Musk's xAI recruiting Wall Street bankers, portfolio managers, and traders to train Grok on financial modeling.
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