SANDBOXER

Bitcoin – End of Year Macro View (1D / Long-Term Cycle Analysis)
Looking at Bitcoin’s full-cycle structure, one thing remains consistent:
every major bull run has been followed by a deep but controlled correction — and each correction has been structurally similar.
📉 Historical Pullbacks in Bull Cycles
2013–2015: ~-65%
2017–2018: ~-59%
2021–2022: ~-60%
Current cycle projection: -60% to -66%
These corrections occurred above long-term moving averages, preserving the macro uptrend.
📊 What the Chart Is Telling Us
Price remains above the long-term trend (blue MA) → macro trend is still bullish
Red volatility bands show cycle tops form before deep retracements
The current structure suggests a healthy correction zone, not a trend reversal
If history rhymes:
A controlled retracement into the highlighted zone would be normal, not bearish
Such phases historically reset momentum and prepare the next expansion leg
Patience has always been rewarded in this market. $BTC

$BTC yılın son günü çok zayıf bir görünüm içinde. Umarım yıl sonunu 87,600 dolar altında bir kapanış yapmaz.

$BTC The momentum of dominance is waning. The elevator is about to crash. $XRP $ETH

$BTC hangisi ?

$BTC ?

Friendship has reached the silver peak. It will crash from here, and money will flow into Bitcoin. Every tree blossoms in its own season. $BTC $SAND $VET

Looking at $BTC with a normal chart structure, $126,000 indicates the end of the bull run. It might reverse and form a double top. However, on a logarithmic chart, it's possible the price could go as high as $310,000. How do we understand this? It's very simple. Using the 0.00% Fibonacci level as the bottom and the 100.00% peak as the base, the 200% Fibonacci level should be the peak of the bull run. $ETH $SOL

This elevator will be operational soon. $BTC #Dominans

I'm expecting the last wave to reach $300k. $BTC

Warning! The elevator is about to plummet... $BTC #dominance Control is being lost.

According to this chart, Bitcoin continues to trade within a long-term rising logarithmic channel and is currently entering the upper-middle band with strong momentum.
Price remains above all major moving averages, confirming trend dominance.
Short-term moving averages are above long-term ones, with widening separation — a sign of a healthy and accelerating trend.
The previous consolidation range has been broken to the upside, and this breakout appears to be supported by momentum.

Expected price behavior:
Any pullbacks are likely to be shallow and viewed as buying opportunities.
Price gradually advances toward the upper internal band of the channel.
As psychological resistance levels are cleared, a momentum-driven rally develops.
Target zones:
$120,000: First major psychological and technical target
$160,000 – $300,000: Primary bullish target near the upper channel boundary
In this scenario:
There are no clear signs of market euphoria or cycle mania yet.
Media attention and retail participation increase, while larger players continue to hold positions.
This structure suggests the market is in a late-but-not-final stage of the bull cycle.

📌 In summary:
The trend remains bullish, structure is intact, pullbacks are opportunities, and the dominant direction points toward new all-time highs. $BTC $ETH $XRP

$BTC will go to $350,000 with a faster action after $96,000

On November 6, 2025, SOFR fell from 4.22% to 3.92%.
This is the lowest level in two years and a very rapid drop of 0.5 points 50 basis points in just six days.
This isn't an "interest rate cut," but rather a sudden massive infusion of liquidity into the market. What does it mean?
It suggests that the Fed recognizes something is wrong behind the scenes, but is pumping money in advance to avoid openly declaring a "crisis is coming."
In short: There's a problem, but they're not saying it yet. Signs of a crisis have begun.
What will the consequences be?
Funding costs for banks and companies have decreased. Loan interest rates and mortgage rates have fallen.
People's monthly payments have decreased, and spending and borrowing have increased.
Asset prices stocks, real estate, crypto, etc.have begun to inflate. But this may be a temporary relief:
Cheap money doesn't solve the economic problem; it merely masks it.
What will the global impact be?
As the dollar declines, the "carry trade" borrowing cheap dollars and investing in other countries) increases.
This creates fragility in developing countries (such as Turkey, Argentina, and Sri Lanka.
So, while this situation may seem benign in the short term, it could later turn into a currency crisis.
If the US economy fails to achieve expected growth in the fourth quarter, or if inflation rises above 3.5% again, the SOFR could rise rapidly. In this case, the repo market (banks' overnight lending system) could become congested. A situation similar to the financial crisis of 2019 could occur.
In conclusion, the SOFR is not just an interest rate; it is a crisis sensor.
If it is falling this rapidly, it indicates significant stress in the system.
The Fed is likely trying to cover up an impending recession.
To put it simply:
The Fed is secretly pumping money into the market.
The decline in SOFR is an early signal of an impending economic shock.
Asset bubbles (stock markets, real estate, etc.) are inflating.
There's a risk of relief in the short term, but a major crisis in the medium term.
The last one is Blow-off Top
$BTC

$BTC is losing dominance altitude. $SAND $VET

He'll do the same move he's done three times before. Rally starts next week. $BTC $SAND $NOT

I hope $BTC dominance returns from here.

The price has been trading within an ascending channel for a long time.
It is currently rapidly approaching the upper band of the channel (between $255,000 and $318,000).
This area has been a peak area in the past (2017 and 2021), meaning there is a high risk of profit-taking or correction.
The purple moving average line represents long-term price support; as long as it doesn't break below it, the main trend is upward.
The middle and lower bands (brown/green areas) have historically provided buying opportunities.
If the upper band breaks, a new parabolic rally will occur. "FOMO" will occur.
If the upper band is rejected, a correction will occur to the purple moving average or green support.$SAND $VET $CELO

$BTC is currently in the nascent phase of a bull trend.
The forward-looking projection, shown in yellow, predicts a potential price rally to $255,000.
In the 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycles, the peak reacted near the red band.
Currently, the price is in the midst of a bull cycle, following the same model.
Bitcoin is still trending within its long-term logarithmic growth channel and is moving with strong momentum toward the upper band.
According to this model, the $200,000-$300,000 range stands out as a potential cycle peak in the 2025-2026 period.
I expect it to repeat the move it has made three times before, a fourth time. $SAND $CELO

This time I'm going lower, to 56%.$BTC $SAND $NOT

It will all take a few weeks. Take your positions. $BTC $CELO $SAND