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$SOL is trading around $102.9 (-10.5%), holding below key moving averages — keeping the daily trend bearish. Sellers remain in control, MACD is still negative, and RSI is approaching oversold territory. A relief bounce could happen, but it wouldn’t confirm a full reversal yet.
Major support: $95–100 Next downside zone: $80–85 if support breaks Key resistance: $120–135
Bias: Bearish overall, with potential for a short-term bounce. Consider longs only on a strong reaction from support, or shorts if $95 breaks with convincing volume.
From $2.42 (Sep 24) to $0.54 (Jan 31) — nearly a 78% drop. And the on-chain activity raises serious questions.
Breakdown of the move: • Sep 25–29: $1.62 → $1.86 (+15%) fueled by launch hype and massive $20B daily volume • Sep 30–Oct 5: ATH at $2.41 before sliding to $1.73 as whales injected ~$61M • Oct 6–12: $1.73 → $1.20 after Aster DEX was removed by DeFiLlama over wash trading concerns • Oct 13–22: $1.20 → $0.96 amid heavy unlocks and coordinated selling
Supply concentration: Six wallets (0xe8, 0xdf, 0x12, 0x79, 0x59, 0x06) reportedly control 88–96% of total supply — extreme centralization that enables major price impact.
Large sell activity: • Oct 18: 17.85M ASTER ($12M) dumped, triggering a 16% drop • Oct 15: Multiple wallets withdrew ~9.6M ASTER combined from Binance
One highly active wallet (0xFB) reportedly moved $114.5M from Gate, linked to Galaxy Digital.
This wasn’t just random volatility — the structure and flows tell a deeper story.