For-Exx Kripto

$LUNC has broken above the 8200 level, but the indicators still don't support this rise...
I think we shouldn't be too hasty with buying, maybe it will settle sideways between 10000 and 8000, we will understand better in the coming time.

LUNC: The Quiet Story of a Four-Year Wait

When a chain collapses,what's left behind is usually just a statistic. $LUNC turned out to be something else entirely: a community still talked about,still debated,still standing.

In May 2022, the Terra ecosystem's collapse was written into one of crypto's harshest chapters. Billions of dollars in value evaporated within days,thousands of investors took heavy hits,and many projects facing similar crises simply faded into silence. For LUNC,the story didn't end there.

What emerged afterward looked like a paradox. The chain kept running,validators kept producing blocks,the community stayed in place. Most of those caught in the fire didn't walk away; instead, they tried to build something new. Burn mechanisms, tax proposals, governance votes — each was a small step,but all pointed in the same direction: these people hadn't given up.

Four years is a long time. Plenty of "this time it's happening"rumors came and went. $USTC 's return to its peg was expected and never arrived. Major burns were discussed, most fell short. The price rally many anticipated rarely materialized. Some lost patience and left,others quietly stepped back.

But one thing didn't change: LUNC is still here. The burn counter keeps ticking, governance proposals are still debated,developers still contribute in small but steady ways. Exchanges kept their listings,and the chain managed to stay upright through its own internal will. Along the way,LUNC became one of the longest-surviving post-collapse community projects in the space.

Maybe the most interesting thing about LUNC is that it isn't a success story in the classical sense. The great comeback never came,and old all-time highs aren't seriously discussed anymore. Yet a community holding a chain together for four years, without any institutional backing, purely on its own resolve,is worth telling on its own. Crypto tends to forget failure quickly;LUNC stands as a story that has refused to be forgotten.

According to Bloomberg, we are experiencing the calmest period for $BTC in the last 9 months, and naturally we can say the same for $LUNC , we are experiencing uneventful and sideways days...
Is this the calm before the storm in cryptocurrencies?

$LUNC continues to trade sideways below the 8200 level, which I've been highlighting repeatedly. We could consider a positive move if it breaks above this level. It's currently moving within the white shaded line.

Five Shutdowns, One Message: Crypto Is Cleansing Itself

Last week brought five major shutdown announcements: onchain card platform

Fantasy .top, cross-chain protocol Everclear, Zerion's L2 ZERO Network, a16z-backed Syndicate Labs, and Bitcoin Depot, once North America's largest BTC ATM operator. Different layers, different models — but one reading ties them together: the sector is shedding excess.

At first glance this looks bearish. A closer look says otherwise. The projects closing are exactly the ones weighing on those still standing.

Fantasy .top never found product-market fit; its co-founder said the TCG model "was never built for crypto." Everclear hit $500M monthly volume but couldn't convert it to revenue. ZERO was wound down so Zerion could refocus on its core product. Syndicate Labs withdrew as Base and Arbitrum consolidated the market and demand for reusable rollup infrastructure collapsed. Bitcoin Depot filed for bankruptcy under regulatory and fraud pressure.

None are simple "bear market casualties." All are projects reaching the natural end of the 2021-2022 funding cycle, in categories where demand has consolidated around a few leaders. What's being cleansed isn't altcoin price inflation — it's capacity and funding excess.

Bull markets have always followed cleanups like this. The post-ICO purge of 2018-2019 birthed DeFi. The ground cleared after FTX and Terra set up the 2024 spot ETF wave. The current shakeout is removing dead weight before the next leg up.

The headlines miss the point: the market isn't weakening because these projects are closing — they're closing because the market wasn't willing to carry them. Liquidity and attention are flowing toward what deserves to survive.

Expect more shutdowns in the coming 6-12 months. Read this list not as a grim picture but as a sector disciplining itself. As weak links fall, strong ones emerge stronger.

$BTC $XRP

Crypto markets entered the holiday period with a blood-red weekend.

There isn’t a single major negative headline right now, but as I mentioned before, several key factors are creating pressure at the same time:

• The fading impact of the Clarity Act expectations is one of the biggest factors
• Trump’s harsh statements toward Iran, such as “the clock is ticking, if they don’t move fast there will be nothing left,” hurt market sentiment
• General macro uncertainty continues, driven by interest rate expectations and movements in bond yields
• The latest rise in U.S. inflation expectations to 4.8% has reopened the debate around Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative
• ETF outflows are also increasing pressure on the market

Right now, the picture looks more like a combination of:
“macro pressure + ETF outflows + leverage cleanup.”

In this environment, heavily leveraged long positions faced major liquidations. Around $500–600 million in long liquidations occurred over the last 24 hours, with most of them concentrated in $BTC and $ETH

$BTC is heading towards a significant support level. If the 76,000 level is broken, the path to a downward move towards 74,000 is open. There is still a long way to go for my lower targets...
#bitcoin

The Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern I drew your attention to 6-7 months ago on $BTC continues to work flawlessly. The first target is 57039, and the range of movement could extend to 50000, perhaps even 49600. Waiting for the 57039-50000 range to buy spot could be a good strategy.

$LUNA 2.0 is the most resilient of the Terra coins during the downturns, holding above the trend support line so far. LUNC and Ustc, on the other hand, currently appear to be the complete opposite of Luna 2.0 in their charts.

$XRP continues to trade horizontally between two dashed turquoise lines, at 1.52 above and 1.28 below, as I've mentioned before. Nothing has changed. It provides good opportunities for short and long positions.

$LUNC continues to trade below the trendline I've indicated with arrows; for an upward move, it needs to break above this pressure. As long as it remains below the 8200 level, its focus will be on the 5045 level.

If $LUNC wants to resume its upward trend, it must rise above the 8200 level; otherwise, the decline will extend to the 5045 level. The downward pressure trend level, which I have indicated with arrows at the top, is reinforcing the negative trend. #lunc

$BTC has finally broken through the support line that previously prevented its decline twice. It is currently at 76600, and a drop extending to 69000 should be considered normal.

$BTC is retesting the support line that previously prevented its decline twice; if the 78,000 level is broken, a drop extending to the 69,000 level may occur next week.

To consider buying in the spot market, I think we should wait until the $LUNC level is 5045...
If there is a surprise and it breaks above 8200 on the daily chart and closes above that level on the daily chart, that level could be another signal to buy...

$BTC 79000 ✅
As we predicted, it retested the support line. It's been pleasing lately in terms of short and long positions for #bitcoin . Let's see where it closes the day?

The 79000-79150 support level in Bitcoin has worked well twice, and it looks like it will attempt a third time. Let's see if there will be a reaction from there again. It's become a good playing field for short and long positions.
$BTC

$LUNC failed to maintain its upward momentum above 10,000 and fell below the 8200 support level, which I consider important. The 5045 level may come into play. It would be good if it breaks above 8200.

Even when $LUNC was above 10,000, I consistently drew attention to the 8,200 level. Currently, it's experiencing a battle between buyers and sellers at that level. There hasn't been a daily close above 10,000 for three days, and the selling pressure has intensified. Now it's trying to hold at 8,200. If it closes below 8,200 on the daily chart, it could fall to 5,045. If it holds, it will go back to the 10,000 level. Today's and tomorrow's movements and the show of strength between buyers and sellers are important.

Interestingly, Bitcoin has always experienced significant drops in the past following changes in Federal Reserve chairmen. These declines are not being triggered solely by the change in the Fed chairman; other factors have also played a role each time (2014: prolonged bear market, 2018: ICO bubble burst + interest rate hike, 2022: FTX crash + aggressive interest rate hikes). However, it's a historical fact that Bitcoin experiences a serious correction of 60-86% with each new chairperson's transition. The average drop has been around 70-80%. This time, the inflation problem and the possibility of interest rate hikes have emerged. Is history merely repeating itself, or does it rhyme?
$BTC