Liz Ann Sonders Re-poster
Chief Investment Strategist, Schwab Center for Financial Research.
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Pending home sales have officially dropped to an all-time low. This marks another monthly decline, with January pending home sales coming in at -0.84% m/m compared to -7.38% in the prior month.
For the 4Q25 period, the @AtlantaFed GDPNow model has returned to its original starting point. The figure stands at +3% (q/q ann.).
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) reported a 0.2% m/m decrease in December, marking a sixth consecutive decline. However, it is worth noting that for the past few years, this measure has not been a reliable proxy for overall economic health.
We are seeing a positive trend as initial jobless claims have dropped to 206k, which beats the 225k estimate and the 229k prior count. However, continuing claims are now at 1.869M, sitting slightly above the 1.860M estimate and the 1.852 prior level. Looking at state-level activity, the largest decreases were reported in NY (-7.5k), PA (-5.3k), and NJ (-3.0k). Meanwhile, OR (+0.42k), IA (+0.32k), and MI (+0.07k) experienced the greatest increases.
The latest figures for the February @phildelphiafed Manufacturing Index show an increase to +16.3. This performance is notably higher than the anticipated +7.5 and the previous month's +12.6. Breaking down the specific categories, new orders reached +11.7 compared to the prior +14.4, while shipments were recorded at +0.3 versus the previous +9.5. In terms of labor metrics, the workweek came in at -11.6 against the prior +9.1, and employment levels were reported at -1.3 compared to the previous +9.7.
Momentarily joining @SchwabNetwork
The trade deficit for December has widened to $70.3B, a figure that exceeds both the estimated $55.5B and the $53.0B recorded during the prior month. Underlying these numbers, imports saw a rise of 3.6%, while exports faced a decline of 1.7%.
Full year 2025 trade deficit narrowed slightly to $901.5B from $903.5 in 2024 but still remains one of largest in history
I will be appearing on @BloombergTV this morning to discuss #OpenInterest. Be sure to watch at approximately 9:30am ET as I join @daniburgz for the segment.
The proportion of equities within every sector establishing new price records across different time intervals
We have updated the performance figures. The index tables and the Mag7 chart and table now cover data through yesterday's close.
This summary details the performance of market sectors and indexes. It encompasses the data from yesterday along with MTD and YTD results.
The MA breadth charts have been refreshed to include data through yesterday's close.
The year-over-year trend for building permits remained weak at -2.2%, even though December saw a month-over-month improvement.
The year-over-year trajectory for industrial production maintained its upward path during January, reaching a level of +2.28%.
The inventory of multifamily housing units currently under construction saw a sustained drop in December. This continued decrease has pushed levels down to a fresh low for the cycle.
During February, the NY Fed Services PMI experienced a steep decline, reaching a new low for the current cycle. The figure dropped to -23.7, a significant shift from the previous reading of -16.1.
In a positive development for January, the manufacturing segment of industrial production rebounded with a 0.6% m/m increase. This marks the strongest performance since the beginning of 2025.
I am thrilled to appear on @bsurveillance alongside @tomkeene and @ptsweeney. Be sure to watch tomorrow morning around 7am ET.
The United States consistently depends on the investment community to support its expanding financial obligations, which amounted to $38.6 trillion as of February 2026. An analysis of activity between November 2024 and November 2025 highlights some interesting movements among major international players. During this specific window, Japan, the UK, and Belgium stood out as the primary purchasers of American debt, with each nation boosting their portfolios by more than $115 billion. In contrast, China pulled back significantly, reducing its position by $86 billion and ranking as the leading net seller for that period. Despite these varied strategies across different nations, the global appetite for U.S. Treasuries remains robust, pushing total foreign holdings to a historic peak of $9.4 trillion.
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