We are finishing an ABC Corrective Cycle following the $126,198 All-Time High (Oct 2025).
Current Wave: We are in a Wave B relief bounce or a potential new Wave 1 impulse.The Fork: If we break $95,200, the correction is over, and we target $104,500 (Wave 3). If we fail here, a Wave C "Final Flush" to $84k–$86k is likely to clear remaining retail leverage. 2. Buyer vs. Seller Behavior
Sellers (The Wall): Heavy resistance at $94,800. This is the "break-even" zone for traders who bought the 2025 top. Sellers are defending this to exit positions without loss.Buyers (The Floor): Solid institutional absorption at $90,500.Risk: The 1.65 Long/Short ratio shows retail is heavily "long." This creates a "liquidity pool" that whales often hunt with a quick "fake-out" dip to $89k before a real move up 3. Fundamental "Fuel" (Jan 2026 Context) The Powell/DOJ Conflict: Fed Chair Powell’s clash with the DOJ and Trump’s administration regarding Fed independence has weakened the USD, making BTC a primary safe-haven asset. Whale Activity: MicroStrategy just confirmed the purchase of 13,627 BTC ($1.2B) at a $75k average. This provides massive psychological support—the "big money" isn't selling; they are accumulating. ETF Momentum: New filings from Morgan Stanley and a shift in VanEck’s risk models are keeping buy-side liquidity high despite the recent "bear market" sentiment from the Fall. 4. The Signal Summary Bullish Trigger: A 4-hour candle close above $95,200 with rising volume.Target: $104,500 (Short-term) | $126,000+ (Macro).Invalidation: A daily close below $89,800 (Signals a deeper drop to $84k)$BTC
BTC saw a massive rally toward the $120,000+ range in late 2025, but the monthly candles for November and December showed heavy profit-taking (long upper wicks). Current Price (Jan 2026): We are currently trading in a broad range between $89,000 and $96,500. Buyer Behavior: Institutional "Whales" are using this monthly consolidation to accumulate. Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) just disclosed a purchase of 13,627 BTC at an average price of $91,519. This provides a massive "floor" of support in the $90k region. 📉 Mid/Short-Timeframe Analysis (4h & 1h Charts) This is where the immediate "Bear Flag" pattern you noticed is most visible. 1. Seller & Buyer Battle (Order Flow) Sellers (The Resistance): The $96,500 level is acting as a "brick wall." Every time price approaches this, sellers (likely short-term speculators and "tourist" capital) dump supply to protect their positions. Buyers (The Support): Buyers are aggressively defending the $93,955 level. We see high buying volume whenever we dip toward $92k, as institutions try to match Strategy’s entry price. 2. Elliott Wave Perspective Current Structure: We are likely in a Corrective Wave 4 (Horizontal or Flag) on the 4h chart. The Prediction: Corrective waves usually resolve in the direction of the previous major move. Since the move into this flag was a sharp drop from $100k+, the wave theory suggests one more "Wave 5" leg down to flush out late longs before a true bottom is found.
🎯 Future BTC Behavior & "Accurate" Trade Plan Based on the Bear Flag and the Net ETF Outflows ($681M recently), the most likely behavior is a liquidation hunt before a reversal. The Signal: "The Springboard Trap" The Move: Expect a "fake-out" pump toward $97,500 to trap early shorts, followed by a rapid breakdown below $93,955. The Target: The price is likely headed for the $89,200 – $90,500 order block. This is where the "big money" (Strategy and other whales) has its buy orders sitting. #StrategyBTCPurchase #BTC #TrendingTopic #profit
🚨 Btc/USDT 4H Market Update – Major Support Broken!
Bitcoin has officially lost the key $100,200 support zone, and price dropped to a fresh low of $97,959. This breakdown signals a strong continuation of the 4H bearish trend.
🔍 Key Technical Signals
📉 Bearish EMA Structure
EMA 7, 25, 99 are all sloping downward
Every bounce is getting rejected by EMA 25
Trend remains strongly bearish
📊 Momentum Indicators
RSI(6): 30.4 → Nearly oversold but still trending down
MACD: Bearish expansion continues → Sellers still in control
🧱 Critical Levels to Watch
🟧 Support Zones
$97,900 – $98,000 → Current bounce zone (weak)
$96,500 → Next important support
$94,800 – $95,200 → Major demand zone
🟦 Resistance
$100,200 → Previously support, now strong resistance
$101,600 – $103,000 if a relief bounce occurs
🔥 What’s Next for BTC?
✔ High Probability: Further downside
BTC is likely to retest:
$97.5K
$96.5K
Reason: Strong bearish momentum, EMA rejection, and weak bounce candles.
✔ Low Probability: Short-term bounce
Only if 4H candles close back above $100,200.
🎯 Strategy Outlook
Trend remains bearish
Short positions still favoured on pullbacks
Long positions only safe at deeper supports or after reclaiming $100.2K #trade #bearishmomentum $BTC
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Based on the latest chart (Last Price: \text{\$104,944.6}) and current market data (\text{\$104,887}), the battle at the $105,000 psychological barrier is ongoing, but the momentum strongly favors the bulls. 1. 🚀 Immediate Next Move Outlook: Bullish Continuation The most likely immediate move is a push higher toward the next major resistance. Reason 1: Technical Reclaim: The price is holding above the short-term EMAs (7 and 25). Reason 2: Momentum Shift: The RSI (\approx 60) shows strong renewed buying interest, and the MACD is seconds away from a bullish crossover (DIF \text{119.1} closing the gap on DEA \text{193.3}). Reason 3: External Confirmation: Analyst consensus confirms that clearing the $105,400 to $106,000 zone is the primary condition for a full trend reversal and a target of \text{\$110,000}+. 2. 📝 Updated Trade Plan (Flip to Long) The original short thesis is invalid due to the strong reclaim of the \text{\$104,000} area. The $105,000 Stop Loss on your short position should be respected if it hasn't executed already. #BTC #BTCFuture #Binance #millionaires #CopyTradingDiscover
If BTC holds above $104,000 and breaks $106,400 (EMA99) with volume, it can trigger a short squeeze. ✅ Long Entry Zone: $106,500 breakout with confirmation 🚀Targets: $108,800 / $110,500 ❤️Stop Loss: $104,000
🚀 Tips for Futures Trading
Market volatility is still high — use isolated margin and leverage under 10x for safety.
RSI near 40 means we may get a short-term bounce, but trend bias still leans bearish.
If BTC fails to close above EMA(25) on 4H, bears are likely to stay in control.
Good strategy: wait for rejection at 105–106K zone → short or breakout above 106.6K → long.