GEMINI
I'm just an immature trader and a crypto lover 👋
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Market volatility has cooled noticeably after last week’s spike with implied volatility resetting lower as price action struggled to hold above the $92K resistance area. Volatility declined across all maturities with short dated contracts falling from 57% to 48%, mid tenor dropping from 52% to 45% and longer dated easing from 49% to 47%, reflecting reduced demand for downside protection.
This broad compression suggests traders are now pricing in a lower risk of sharp moves and expecting a calmer trading environment. Compared to the caution seen last week, positioning has shifted toward a more neutral outlook, as participants remain patient and wait for a clearer directional catalyst.
This broad compression suggests traders are now pricing in a lower risk of sharp moves and expecting a calmer trading environment. Compared to the caution seen last week, positioning has shifted toward a more neutral outlook, as participants remain patient and wait for a clearer directional catalyst.
#BTC continues to trade within a consolidation range between $85k and $92k. The $85k level remains a key support zone, while $92k is acting as a supply area where some investors are taking profits. The sharp move around $84,500 should not be overanalyzed, as it was largely driven by a large BTC transfer from #Binance rather than organic market selling.
At current prices, roughly 65% of BTC holders are still in profit, which is relatively low for a typical bull market phase and suggests the market is still consolidating rather than approaching a major top.
At current prices, roughly 65% of BTC holders are still in profit, which is relatively low for a typical bull market phase and suggests the market is still consolidating rather than approaching a major top.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
📊 RWA was the most profitable narrative in 2025 with ~186% average gains, followed by L1s and Made in USA, per Coingecko.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Over the last 24 hours, the crypto market saw 66,983 traders liquidated, pushing total liquidations to $122.96 million. The biggest hit came from Hyperliquid, where a single #BTCUSD position worth $7.00 million was liquidated.
The magnitude of unrealized loss has now stabilized above ~5% of market cap, marking the highest stress level of this cycle so far. While meaningful, this remains well below the extreme loss regimes observed during deep bear markets, such as the post FTX capitulation phase.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Since early November, the 30 day SMA of net inflows for both #Bitcoin and #Ethereum ETFs has slipped into negative territory and continues to remain there. This ongoing weakness signals reduced engagement from institutional allocators, reflecting a wait and watch approach rather than active positioning.
The lack of consistent inflows highlights softer demand at the institutional level, aligning with declining liquidity conditions across the crypto market. Until flows stabilize or turn positive, broader market participation is likely to stay subdued, limiting strong directional moves.
The lack of consistent inflows highlights softer demand at the institutional level, aligning with declining liquidity conditions across the crypto market. Until flows stabilize or turn positive, broader market participation is likely to stay subdued, limiting strong directional moves.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Altcoins are still under heavy pressure. Liquidity is very low and investors are avoiding risk. Since early October, the altcoin market has fallen sharply with Total2 down around 36% and altcoins outside the top 10 down about 46% in just three months. Only about 3% of #altcoins on Binance are trading above their 200 day moving average, showing how weak the market is and how little interest there is right now.
Even though this looks negative, such periods often create good opportunities but the weakness may continue if the market stays bearish. A strong recovery, if it comes, will be an important signal to watch.
Even though this looks negative, such periods often create good opportunities but the weakness may continue if the market stays bearish. A strong recovery, if it comes, will be an important signal to watch.
As the year comes to a close, derivatives activity around #Bitcoin is increasing. Perpetual futures open interest continues to rise, showing that traders are adding exposure in anticipation of a potential upside move. Glassnode data highlights this growing positioning, which can fuel price action but also brings higher volatility risk if leverage unwinds.
This short stretch at the turn of the year has historically delivered strong performance. In more than 75% of cases, the final five trading days of December and the first two days of January close higher, with an average gain of about 1.13%.
Current market structure reflects growing weakness, confirmed by both sentiment and on chain metrics. Short term holders are now underwater, increasing the likelihood of reactive selling during small rebounds.
Former support zones have shifted into resistance, creating strong overhead pressure. This environment suggests limited upside in the near term, with sellers maintaining control unless buyers step in decisively and reclaim key levels.
Former support zones have shifted into resistance, creating strong overhead pressure. This environment suggests limited upside in the near term, with sellers maintaining control unless buyers step in decisively and reclaim key levels.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
In the past 24 hours, a total of 115,679 traders faced liquidation, with combined losses reaching around $204.9 million. The biggest hit came from Hyperliquid, where a single #BTCUSD position valued at $3.26 million was liquidated.
Still Extreme Fear 👀
Even after the #XRP ETF approval, the market has failed to show strength. On chain data reveals that the largest inflows are coming from wallets holding between 100K-1M XRP and 1M+ XRP, categories typically linked to whale investors. These funds are being moved to Binance, a pattern that often signals intent to sell rather than long term holding.
Retail participation remains limited, while large holders appear to be using the news as an exit opportunity. As long as whales continue transferring XRP to exchanges, selling pressure is likely to persist. Without a slowdown in these inflows, XRP may struggle to establish a stable upward trend in the near term.
Retail participation remains limited, while large holders appear to be using the news as an exit opportunity. As long as whales continue transferring XRP to exchanges, selling pressure is likely to persist. Without a slowdown in these inflows, XRP may struggle to establish a stable upward trend in the near term.
In the last 24 hours, liquidations impacted 86,373 traders with total losses adding up to $107.15 million. The biggest individual liquidation was recorded on Hyperliquid in the #BTCUSD market, totaling $3.26 million.
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