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BITCOIN’S 4-YEAR CYCLE ISN’T DEAD — IT’S PLAYING OUT EXACTLY ON TIME.
Zoom out, ignore the noise, and look at the roadmap Bitcoin has followed for over a decade.
The long-term chart gives one of the cleanest signals in crypto:
Cycle Peak Timing:
→ 2012
→ 2017
→ 2021
→ 2025 loading…
Every top has landed roughly 1,420–1,450 days apart — almost like clockwork.
And after every peak, one brutal truth repeats:
2012 top → -79% crash
2017 top → -81% crash
2021 top → -75% crash
Same structure. Same timing. Same macro psychology.
So when people say “This time is different,” the chart says:
No — this time is the same. And the next major peak is lining up for 2025.
If history repeats, we’re entering the final acceleration phase.
Stay focused. Stay strategic.
The real move hasn’t even started yet.
#CYCLE
Zoom out, ignore the noise, and look at the roadmap Bitcoin has followed for over a decade.
The long-term chart gives one of the cleanest signals in crypto:
Cycle Peak Timing:
→ 2012
→ 2017
→ 2021
→ 2025 loading…
Every top has landed roughly 1,420–1,450 days apart — almost like clockwork.
And after every peak, one brutal truth repeats:
2012 top → -79% crash
2017 top → -81% crash
2021 top → -75% crash
Same structure. Same timing. Same macro psychology.
So when people say “This time is different,” the chart says:
No — this time is the same. And the next major peak is lining up for 2025.
If history repeats, we’re entering the final acceleration phase.
Stay focused. Stay strategic.
The real move hasn’t even started yet.
#CYCLE
$HYPE Analysis : Will burning $912 million worth of HYPE funds help the price reach $40?
Hyperliquid's HYPE token has experienced significant volatility in recent months, after briefly peaking around $50 nearly two months ago, before selling pressure intensified across the market. Since then, HYPE has entered a clear corrective trend, trading primarily within a descending channel and establishing local lows around $22.
Currently, HYPE is trading around $23.94, down 1.39% on the day and nearly 12% on the week, indicating that selling pressure continues to dominate the price movement. Against this backdrop, the Hyper Foundation has implemented a notable intervention to strengthen its tokenomics structure and support market sentiment.
Specifically, the Hyper Foundation approved the burning of 37 million HYPE tokens after receiving over 85% consensus in a staking-weighted governance vote. The burned tokens, estimated to be worth over $912 million, were transferred to an inaccessible address, officially removing them from the circulating supply. This move reduced the total circulating supply by approximately 11–13%, thereby increasing HYPE's scarcity.
Simultaneously, Hyper Foundation has maintained its token buyback program since the end of 2024, increasing its total HYPE holdings to over 37.5 million tokens. On the spot market, the cash flow shows positive signs, with HYPE withdrawals consistently exceeding deposits, reflecting weakening selling pressure. If this trend continues, HYPE could recover to the $30 region and aim for $40, although the risk of losing the $20 support level has not been completely eliminated.
Hyperliquid's HYPE token has experienced significant volatility in recent months, after briefly peaking around $50 nearly two months ago, before selling pressure intensified across the market. Since then, HYPE has entered a clear corrective trend, trading primarily within a descending channel and establishing local lows around $22.
Currently, HYPE is trading around $23.94, down 1.39% on the day and nearly 12% on the week, indicating that selling pressure continues to dominate the price movement. Against this backdrop, the Hyper Foundation has implemented a notable intervention to strengthen its tokenomics structure and support market sentiment.
Specifically, the Hyper Foundation approved the burning of 37 million HYPE tokens after receiving over 85% consensus in a staking-weighted governance vote. The burned tokens, estimated to be worth over $912 million, were transferred to an inaccessible address, officially removing them from the circulating supply. This move reduced the total circulating supply by approximately 11–13%, thereby increasing HYPE's scarcity.
Simultaneously, Hyper Foundation has maintained its token buyback program since the end of 2024, increasing its total HYPE holdings to over 37.5 million tokens. On the spot market, the cash flow shows positive signs, with HYPE withdrawals consistently exceeding deposits, reflecting weakening selling pressure. If this trend continues, HYPE could recover to the $30 region and aim for $40, although the risk of losing the $20 support level has not been completely eliminated.
Bitwise's 10 crypto predictions for 2026: Bulls dominate, institutions lead the market.
Bitwise has just released its report, “10 Crypto Predictions for 2026,” which expresses a distinctly optimistic view with a focus on Bitcoin. According to Bitwise, the long-term upward trend of the market will be supported by strong demand from ETFs, increasing institutional participation, legal developments in the US, supply constraints after halving, and a shift in market structure towards greater sustainability.
The report, co-authored by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen, emphasizes that bitcoin is gradually decoupled from the stock market and moving according to its own crypto dynamics. Bitwise suggests that 2026 will see the bulls prevail, as the current positive factors are too broad and strong to be reversed in the short term.
The most prominent forecast suggests that bitcoin will break its traditional four-year cycle and set new historical highs, as factors that previously caused sharp corrections have weakened. Bitwise also predicts that ETFs will buy more than 100% of newly mined bitcoin, creating a structural imbalance between supply and demand. Furthermore, the report expects bitcoin volatility to continue to decrease, reflecting BTC's shift towards a lower risk profile as its investor base expands significantly.
Bitwise has just released its report, “10 Crypto Predictions for 2026,” which expresses a distinctly optimistic view with a focus on Bitcoin. According to Bitwise, the long-term upward trend of the market will be supported by strong demand from ETFs, increasing institutional participation, legal developments in the US, supply constraints after halving, and a shift in market structure towards greater sustainability.
The report, co-authored by Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan and Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen, emphasizes that bitcoin is gradually decoupled from the stock market and moving according to its own crypto dynamics. Bitwise suggests that 2026 will see the bulls prevail, as the current positive factors are too broad and strong to be reversed in the short term.
The most prominent forecast suggests that bitcoin will break its traditional four-year cycle and set new historical highs, as factors that previously caused sharp corrections have weakened. Bitwise also predicts that ETFs will buy more than 100% of newly mined bitcoin, creating a structural imbalance between supply and demand. Furthermore, the report expects bitcoin volatility to continue to decrease, reflecting BTC's shift towards a lower risk profile as its investor base expands significantly.
Strategy shares plunge as Bitcoin treasury model comes under pressure.
Companies holding Bitcoin as a treasury asset, led by Strategy (MSTR), are facing significant pressure as Bitcoin's volatile price in 2025 makes full-year performance nearly flat or slightly negative. MSTR stock has fallen more than 60% from its year-high, reflecting the amplified impact of Bitcoin's leveraged pricing model, amidst a dramatic surge followed by a deep correction in BTC price.
Pressure also stems from increasingly high funding costs, including interest on convertible bonds and preferred stock dividends, while continuous new share issuances dilute existing shareholders. Strategy's NAV premium is currently in negative territory, indicating that the market is undervaluing the stock compared to its Bitcoin holdings, a stark contrast to the previous bull market period.
According to CryptoQuant, many other Bitcoin treasury companies that raised capital through PIPE have also seen their stock prices plummet, often returning to near their issuance levels. If Bitcoin does not soon enter a sustainable bull cycle, this group of stocks risks further weakening as institutional money flows shrink and investors shift to prioritizing more stable assets.
Companies holding Bitcoin as a treasury asset, led by Strategy (MSTR), are facing significant pressure as Bitcoin's volatile price in 2025 makes full-year performance nearly flat or slightly negative. MSTR stock has fallen more than 60% from its year-high, reflecting the amplified impact of Bitcoin's leveraged pricing model, amidst a dramatic surge followed by a deep correction in BTC price.
Pressure also stems from increasingly high funding costs, including interest on convertible bonds and preferred stock dividends, while continuous new share issuances dilute existing shareholders. Strategy's NAV premium is currently in negative territory, indicating that the market is undervaluing the stock compared to its Bitcoin holdings, a stark contrast to the previous bull market period.
According to CryptoQuant, many other Bitcoin treasury companies that raised capital through PIPE have also seen their stock prices plummet, often returning to near their issuance levels. If Bitcoin does not soon enter a sustainable bull cycle, this group of stocks risks further weakening as institutional money flows shrink and investors shift to prioritizing more stable assets.
$WLD Analysis : Woldcoin approaches breakout level as whale inflows and liquidity peak this year.
Worldcoin (WLD) was trading around $0.49 as of Thursday, continuing its sideways consolidation within a descending wedge pattern formed earlier this month. While the price remains in a weak zone, on-chain data is showing noteworthy signals from institutional capital flows and large investor groups.
According to Lookonchain, a wallet allegedly linked to Multicoin Capital spent approximately 30 million USDC to purchase 60 million WLD tokens through OTC trading, at an average price of approximately $0.50. This move reflects clear interest from long-term investment funds and indicates strategic buying pressure emerging at low price levels.
Simultaneously, data from Santiment shows a sharp increase in on-chain trading volume for WLD, reaching $1.46 billion on Wednesday, the highest level since the beginning of the year and also a new peak since July 2024. The more active network activity indicates improving liquidity, laying the groundwork for a potential recovery.
From a supply distribution perspective, wallets holding between 1 and 100 million WLD have accumulated over 150 million tokens during the recent price correction. This suggests that whales are taking advantage of the discounted price to increase their positions.
Technically, if WLD breaks above the descending wedge pattern, the price could head towards the $0.56 region, and further towards the 50-day EMA around $0.63. Conversely, the $0.47 level remains a crucial support level in the short term.
Worldcoin (WLD) was trading around $0.49 as of Thursday, continuing its sideways consolidation within a descending wedge pattern formed earlier this month. While the price remains in a weak zone, on-chain data is showing noteworthy signals from institutional capital flows and large investor groups.
According to Lookonchain, a wallet allegedly linked to Multicoin Capital spent approximately 30 million USDC to purchase 60 million WLD tokens through OTC trading, at an average price of approximately $0.50. This move reflects clear interest from long-term investment funds and indicates strategic buying pressure emerging at low price levels.
Simultaneously, data from Santiment shows a sharp increase in on-chain trading volume for WLD, reaching $1.46 billion on Wednesday, the highest level since the beginning of the year and also a new peak since July 2024. The more active network activity indicates improving liquidity, laying the groundwork for a potential recovery.
From a supply distribution perspective, wallets holding between 1 and 100 million WLD have accumulated over 150 million tokens during the recent price correction. This suggests that whales are taking advantage of the discounted price to increase their positions.
Technically, if WLD breaks above the descending wedge pattern, the price could head towards the $0.56 region, and further towards the 50-day EMA around $0.63. Conversely, the $0.47 level remains a crucial support level in the short term.
Insiders Trading stopped buying new tokens for two years, trapping retail investors in a liquidity crisis.
Over 80% of tokens launched in 2025 are currently trading below their initial valuation, reflecting a harsh reality of the altcoin market. According to Memento Research, in 118 major token issuance events, as many as 84.7% of tokens fell in price compared to their initial value per share (FDV) upon listing, with a median drop of approximately 71%. This suggests that TGEs are increasingly becoming more of a liquidity distribution tool than a growth starting point.
The core issue lies in the "low circulation, high FDV" model. Most projects only release 10-15% of their total supply to the market, but price their tokens based on the entire FDV, including the team's tokens and unreleased investment fund tokens. This structure creates the illusion of scarcity in the short term, while underlying selling pressure always looms large. In fact, all 28 projects launching in 2025 with over $1 billion in FDV have seen significant price drops after listing.
Notably, insiders and liquidity funds have largely stayed out of TGE for years, leaving the primary market to retail investors. With institutional demand absent, the token price inevitably plummeted under selling pressure from airdrops, market makers, and related internal wallets.
The year 2025 sends a clear message: tokens are no longer an unconditional fundraising tool. The market is rejecting inflated valuations and forcing projects to return to models tied to real value. For investors, TGEs are increasingly resembling exit points rather than opportunities, and patience after listing becomes crucial for survival.
Over 80% of tokens launched in 2025 are currently trading below their initial valuation, reflecting a harsh reality of the altcoin market. According to Memento Research, in 118 major token issuance events, as many as 84.7% of tokens fell in price compared to their initial value per share (FDV) upon listing, with a median drop of approximately 71%. This suggests that TGEs are increasingly becoming more of a liquidity distribution tool than a growth starting point.
The core issue lies in the "low circulation, high FDV" model. Most projects only release 10-15% of their total supply to the market, but price their tokens based on the entire FDV, including the team's tokens and unreleased investment fund tokens. This structure creates the illusion of scarcity in the short term, while underlying selling pressure always looms large. In fact, all 28 projects launching in 2025 with over $1 billion in FDV have seen significant price drops after listing.
Notably, insiders and liquidity funds have largely stayed out of TGE for years, leaving the primary market to retail investors. With institutional demand absent, the token price inevitably plummeted under selling pressure from airdrops, market makers, and related internal wallets.
The year 2025 sends a clear message: tokens are no longer an unconditional fundraising tool. The market is rejecting inflated valuations and forcing projects to return to models tied to real value. For investors, TGEs are increasingly resembling exit points rather than opportunities, and patience after listing becomes crucial for survival.
BitMines’ $15B Ethereum bet suffers a $3.5B loss – Is a relief likely?
The Q4 2025 crypto market rout is testing the patience of digital asset treasuries (DATs). BitMine Immersion, the world’s largest Ethereum treasury firm, has recorded a substantial $3.5 billion unrealized loss on its ETH holdings.
Over the past two months, its unrealized loss has hovered around $3.5 billion and $4.2 billion as ETH consolidated around $2.6K-$2.75K after a 40% dump in Q4.
Source: CryptoQuant
BitMine Chair Tom Lee has been a vocal Ethereum [ETH] bull, betting on tokenization and the stablecoin boom as long-term tailwinds for the asset. To back his conviction, the firm invested $14.6 billion to acquire 3.7 million ETH.
The BitMine bet is now down by over $3.5 billion, but Lee continues to scale his stash. However, other distressed ETH treasuries, such as SharpLink and ETHZilla, have been forced to dump their holdings and abandon the ETH strategy altogether.
In fact, experts had feared that if other firms follow suit, the bear market could worsen if they aren’t acquired by major players. Currently, treasury firms rival ETFs and own 5.6% of the total ETH supply.
Whales ramp up ETH buys
Despite the DAT distress, the broader accumulation and institutional demand continue to rise.
Notably, Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi confirmed that they have purchased $1.72 billion of ETH after the asset dipped to $2,600 in November. He added there was still plans to acquire $1B billion more ETH, and warned bears,
“We strongly advise against shorting. Undoubtedly, this will be a historic opportunity.”
Source: X
And data backed his statement.
The pace of accumulation by whales holding 10K-100K ETH has been massive in 2025. In fact, the dip buying increased during the late 2025 drawdown, and this cohort held over 21 million ETH at press time.
Source: CryptoQuant
ETH’s 45% upside potential
From an ETH valuation perspective, the current price of $2.9K was undervalued and a bargain for long-term investors.
In fact, out of 10 key metrics, seven flashed a “buy” signal and placed a fair value at $4.2K, suggesting a 45% upside potential.
Source: ETHVal
Notably, in March, the fair value flashed $2.5K while ETH traded at $1.5K at that time. By May, ETH reached $2,500.
In June, when the asset traded at $2.5K, the metric projected an upswing to $3.6K, a month later, the level was hit. However, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
$ETH
Over the past two months, its unrealized loss has hovered around $3.5 billion and $4.2 billion as ETH consolidated around $2.6K-$2.75K after a 40% dump in Q4.
Source: CryptoQuant
BitMine Chair Tom Lee has been a vocal Ethereum [ETH] bull, betting on tokenization and the stablecoin boom as long-term tailwinds for the asset. To back his conviction, the firm invested $14.6 billion to acquire 3.7 million ETH.
The BitMine bet is now down by over $3.5 billion, but Lee continues to scale his stash. However, other distressed ETH treasuries, such as SharpLink and ETHZilla, have been forced to dump their holdings and abandon the ETH strategy altogether.
In fact, experts had feared that if other firms follow suit, the bear market could worsen if they aren’t acquired by major players. Currently, treasury firms rival ETFs and own 5.6% of the total ETH supply.
Whales ramp up ETH buys
Despite the DAT distress, the broader accumulation and institutional demand continue to rise.
Notably, Liquid Capital founder Jack Yi confirmed that they have purchased $1.72 billion of ETH after the asset dipped to $2,600 in November. He added there was still plans to acquire $1B billion more ETH, and warned bears,
“We strongly advise against shorting. Undoubtedly, this will be a historic opportunity.”
Source: X
And data backed his statement.
The pace of accumulation by whales holding 10K-100K ETH has been massive in 2025. In fact, the dip buying increased during the late 2025 drawdown, and this cohort held over 21 million ETH at press time.
Source: CryptoQuant
ETH’s 45% upside potential
From an ETH valuation perspective, the current price of $2.9K was undervalued and a bargain for long-term investors.
In fact, out of 10 key metrics, seven flashed a “buy” signal and placed a fair value at $4.2K, suggesting a 45% upside potential.
Source: ETHVal
Notably, in March, the fair value flashed $2.5K while ETH traded at $1.5K at that time. By May, ETH reached $2,500.
In June, when the asset traded at $2.5K, the metric projected an upswing to $3.6K, a month later, the level was hit. However, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.
$ETH
$SOL Analysis : Solana stuck in $122–$145 range as whales clash: What’s next for SOL?
Solana remained under pressure on the 24th of December as the price traded below a critical short-term support region.
Despite ecosystem developments, market structure reflected caution as liquidity-driven moves dominated intraday direction.
Repeated failures to reclaim higher levels weakened bullish conviction and reinforced short-term downside risk.
Observing price action, the price stayed largely confined within a broader $122–$145 range over recent sessions.
Sellers maintained control as upside momentum failed to attract sustained follow-through buying interest. This compression kept traders focused on nearby liquidation levels rather than continuing the trend.
Source: TradingView
Solana [SOL] RSI hovered near the neutral 40 level, reflecting weak momentum and limited directional conviction.
MACD remained below the signal line, highlighting sustained bearish pressure without a clear reversal signal.
Will whales decide Solana’s next major move?
On-chain data from Onchain Lens showed a sharp divergence between two high-profile whale addresses holding opposing leveraged SOL positions.
Whale “0x0e4” maintained a 20x SOL long position that faced losses exceeding $5.78M. An additional 20x BTC and 10x HYPE longs pushed total unrealized losses near $8.5M.
In contrast, whale “0x35d” held a profitable 20x SOL short position valued at approximately $11M. This position was gradually reduced, suggesting controlled profit-taking rather than aggressive risk-off behavior.
The same whale also held leveraged BTC and ETH positions, with combined profits exceeding $27.7M.
Infrastructure catalyst: Coinbase expands SOL
Coinbase announced support for SOL deposits and withdrawals directly through its Base network during the same period.
The integration enabled seamless transfers between Solana and Base without reliance on traditional third-party bridges. This development connected Solana’s high-speed ecosystem with Ethereum-based liquidity on Base.
Users gained the ability to utilize SOL as an ERC20 token within Base-native decentralized finance applications.
Market participants highlighted reduced transaction friction and improved cross-chain accessibility as key benefits. However, availability remained restricted across several jurisdictions, limiting immediate global impact.
Liquidity concentrated between $121 and $133
The 48-hour liquidation heatmap revealed dense downside liquidity clustered between the $121 and $122 levels.
This zone represented a high concentration of leveraged long positions vulnerable to forced liquidations. Price gravitated lower as this liquidity remained uncleared during recent sessions.
Source: CoinGlass
Upside liquidity appeared concentrated near $128.5–$129.5, with secondary levels around $131.5–$133. These zones represented stacked short positions that could act as upside magnets during momentum shifts.
Until then, price reactions remained muted, and corrective bounces lacked strength.
$SOL
Despite ecosystem developments, market structure reflected caution as liquidity-driven moves dominated intraday direction.
Repeated failures to reclaim higher levels weakened bullish conviction and reinforced short-term downside risk.
Observing price action, the price stayed largely confined within a broader $122–$145 range over recent sessions.
Sellers maintained control as upside momentum failed to attract sustained follow-through buying interest. This compression kept traders focused on nearby liquidation levels rather than continuing the trend.
Source: TradingView
Solana [SOL] RSI hovered near the neutral 40 level, reflecting weak momentum and limited directional conviction.
MACD remained below the signal line, highlighting sustained bearish pressure without a clear reversal signal.
Will whales decide Solana’s next major move?
On-chain data from Onchain Lens showed a sharp divergence between two high-profile whale addresses holding opposing leveraged SOL positions.
Whale “0x0e4” maintained a 20x SOL long position that faced losses exceeding $5.78M. An additional 20x BTC and 10x HYPE longs pushed total unrealized losses near $8.5M.
In contrast, whale “0x35d” held a profitable 20x SOL short position valued at approximately $11M. This position was gradually reduced, suggesting controlled profit-taking rather than aggressive risk-off behavior.
The same whale also held leveraged BTC and ETH positions, with combined profits exceeding $27.7M.
Infrastructure catalyst: Coinbase expands SOL
Coinbase announced support for SOL deposits and withdrawals directly through its Base network during the same period.
The integration enabled seamless transfers between Solana and Base without reliance on traditional third-party bridges. This development connected Solana’s high-speed ecosystem with Ethereum-based liquidity on Base.
Users gained the ability to utilize SOL as an ERC20 token within Base-native decentralized finance applications.
Market participants highlighted reduced transaction friction and improved cross-chain accessibility as key benefits. However, availability remained restricted across several jurisdictions, limiting immediate global impact.
Liquidity concentrated between $121 and $133
The 48-hour liquidation heatmap revealed dense downside liquidity clustered between the $121 and $122 levels.
This zone represented a high concentration of leveraged long positions vulnerable to forced liquidations. Price gravitated lower as this liquidity remained uncleared during recent sessions.
Source: CoinGlass
Upside liquidity appeared concentrated near $128.5–$129.5, with secondary levels around $131.5–$133. These zones represented stacked short positions that could act as upside magnets during momentum shifts.
Until then, price reactions remained muted, and corrective bounces lacked strength.
$SOL
How did the DeFi lending market react to the investor sell-off?
The cryptocurrency market has entered a deep correction since the beginning of October 2025, shortly after Bitcoin set a new all-time high. Along with the price decline, borrowing activity in the market has also narrowed significantly, especially in the decentralized finance sector.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that the amount of stablecoins borrowed weekly on Aave has plummeted from a peak of $6.2 billion in early August to approximately $1.9 billion at the end of November, a drop of 69%. This development reflects increased risk aversion as investors limit leverage amid continuously declining collateral asset prices. However, the total outstanding debt on Aave remains around $16.3 billion, indicating that the core of the DeFi lending market remains relatively stable.
Conversely, the centralized lending platform Nexo has seen a recovery in retail lending demand as the market continues to plummet. Instead of selling off assets, many investors are opting for collateralized loans to maintain their positions.
Meanwhile, the total market TVL of DeFi has fallen to approximately $117.9 billion, mirroring a nearly 30% drop in Bitcoin from its peak. Despite short-term pressures, observers expect 2026 to usher in a wave of institutional DeFi, driven by a clearer regulatory framework and increasing practical application demand.
The cryptocurrency market has entered a deep correction since the beginning of October 2025, shortly after Bitcoin set a new all-time high. Along with the price decline, borrowing activity in the market has also narrowed significantly, especially in the decentralized finance sector.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that the amount of stablecoins borrowed weekly on Aave has plummeted from a peak of $6.2 billion in early August to approximately $1.9 billion at the end of November, a drop of 69%. This development reflects increased risk aversion as investors limit leverage amid continuously declining collateral asset prices. However, the total outstanding debt on Aave remains around $16.3 billion, indicating that the core of the DeFi lending market remains relatively stable.
Conversely, the centralized lending platform Nexo has seen a recovery in retail lending demand as the market continues to plummet. Instead of selling off assets, many investors are opting for collateralized loans to maintain their positions.
Meanwhile, the total market TVL of DeFi has fallen to approximately $117.9 billion, mirroring a nearly 30% drop in Bitcoin from its peak. Despite short-term pressures, observers expect 2026 to usher in a wave of institutional DeFi, driven by a clearer regulatory framework and increasing practical application demand.
Offchain Labs Buys More ARB, Reaffirming Long-Term Faith in Arbitrum
Offchain Labs, the core development team behind Arbitrum, has recently purchased additional ARB tokens, signaling reinforced long-term confidence in the network amid weakening sentiment across the broader crypto market and sustained pressure on governance tokens. In a post on X, Offchain Labs reaffirmed its commitment to building the Arbitrum ecosystem in a substantive manner, while confirming an increase in its direct exposure to ARB under an approved acquisition plan. ARB is currently trading around the $0.19 level.
This move comes at a time when concerns are growing that many development teams and early participants are scaling back their holdings of governance tokens. Within the Arbitrum ecosystem, ARB plays a central governance role, enabling the community to vote on network upgrades, budget allocations, and ecosystem direction. Against this backdrop, Offchain Labs’ continued accumulation of ARB is viewed as a constructive signal, particularly as Arbitrum maintains its position as the largest Ethereum layer-2 network by value secured and overall DeFi activity.
Good News for $ARB holder!!!
Offchain Labs, the core development team behind Arbitrum, has recently purchased additional ARB tokens, signaling reinforced long-term confidence in the network amid weakening sentiment across the broader crypto market and sustained pressure on governance tokens. In a post on X, Offchain Labs reaffirmed its commitment to building the Arbitrum ecosystem in a substantive manner, while confirming an increase in its direct exposure to ARB under an approved acquisition plan. ARB is currently trading around the $0.19 level.
This move comes at a time when concerns are growing that many development teams and early participants are scaling back their holdings of governance tokens. Within the Arbitrum ecosystem, ARB plays a central governance role, enabling the community to vote on network upgrades, budget allocations, and ecosystem direction. Against this backdrop, Offchain Labs’ continued accumulation of ARB is viewed as a constructive signal, particularly as Arbitrum maintains its position as the largest Ethereum layer-2 network by value secured and overall DeFi activity.
Good News for $ARB holder!!!
$AVAX analysis : Avalanche stagnates around $12 despite Grayscale's filing to convert funds into ETFs
Avalanche (AVAX) continued to trade around the $12 level during Thursday’s session, extending its weak performance after falling nearly 2% from the previous day. This move came as Grayscale filed an updated application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), proposing to convert its Avalanche Trust into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). If approved and listed on Nasdaq, the ETF could open a new channel for institutional capital flows into AVAX. However, market sentiment remains cautious for now, as short-term selling pressure has yet to show clear signs of easing.
In the derivatives market, AVAX futures open interest rose 2.04% over the past 24 hours to around $493 million, indicating that traders are actively opening new positions. These flows include both long and short positions, reflecting increased participation without a clear directional bias. Notably, the funding rate remains negative at -0.0113%, suggesting that bears are willing to pay a premium to maintain short exposure, reinforcing the cautious short-term outlook.
From a technical perspective, AVAX is facing the risk of losing the key psychological support at $12.00, with the nearest support located around $11.18. A breakdown below this level could see losses extend toward the $8.66 area. On the upside, the daily RSI stands at 38, highlighting continued weakness, while the MACD remains in an upward trend above its signal line, indicating that underlying recovery momentum has not been completely invalidated.
$AVAX
Avalanche (AVAX) continued to trade around the $12 level during Thursday’s session, extending its weak performance after falling nearly 2% from the previous day. This move came as Grayscale filed an updated application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), proposing to convert its Avalanche Trust into an exchange-traded fund (ETF). If approved and listed on Nasdaq, the ETF could open a new channel for institutional capital flows into AVAX. However, market sentiment remains cautious for now, as short-term selling pressure has yet to show clear signs of easing.
In the derivatives market, AVAX futures open interest rose 2.04% over the past 24 hours to around $493 million, indicating that traders are actively opening new positions. These flows include both long and short positions, reflecting increased participation without a clear directional bias. Notably, the funding rate remains negative at -0.0113%, suggesting that bears are willing to pay a premium to maintain short exposure, reinforcing the cautious short-term outlook.
From a technical perspective, AVAX is facing the risk of losing the key psychological support at $12.00, with the nearest support located around $11.18. A breakdown below this level could see losses extend toward the $8.66 area. On the upside, the daily RSI stands at 38, highlighting continued weakness, while the MACD remains in an upward trend above its signal line, indicating that underlying recovery momentum has not been completely invalidated.
$AVAX
Ether price under pressure as $6 billion option expiration imminent
For more than 40 days, Ether (ETH) has repeatedly failed to hold above the $3,400 level, raising concerns that the short-term downtrend may not be over yet. Pressure is intensifying as a $6 billion ETH options expiry approaches this Friday, especially after bulls had previously expected ETH to reach $4,000 or higher before a sharp 28% correction in November.
The ETH price at the time of expiry will play a key role in determining which side controls the market, even though call options currently outnumber put options by a ratio of about 2.2 to 1. However, most of the $4.1 billion in open call options are positioned at relatively high strike prices, mainly between $3,500 and $5,000, meaning many contracts could expire worthless if ETH fails to stage a strong rebound.
In reality, less than 25% of call options are set below the $3,200 level, indicating that bullish expectations remain highly speculative. On the other hand, bears have concentrated their bets in the $2,200–$2,900 range, a scenario that is also considered somewhat extreme.
If ETH holds above $2,950, more than 60% of outstanding put options could expire without value. Even so, bears continue to maintain the upper hand as long as ETH remains below $3,200. Amid macroeconomic uncertainty and rising demand for downside protection, the $3,100 level has become a critical threshold for ETH bulls to rebalance market positioning and prevent further deterioration in investor sentiment.
$ETH
For more than 40 days, Ether (ETH) has repeatedly failed to hold above the $3,400 level, raising concerns that the short-term downtrend may not be over yet. Pressure is intensifying as a $6 billion ETH options expiry approaches this Friday, especially after bulls had previously expected ETH to reach $4,000 or higher before a sharp 28% correction in November.
The ETH price at the time of expiry will play a key role in determining which side controls the market, even though call options currently outnumber put options by a ratio of about 2.2 to 1. However, most of the $4.1 billion in open call options are positioned at relatively high strike prices, mainly between $3,500 and $5,000, meaning many contracts could expire worthless if ETH fails to stage a strong rebound.
In reality, less than 25% of call options are set below the $3,200 level, indicating that bullish expectations remain highly speculative. On the other hand, bears have concentrated their bets in the $2,200–$2,900 range, a scenario that is also considered somewhat extreme.
If ETH holds above $2,950, more than 60% of outstanding put options could expire without value. Even so, bears continue to maintain the upper hand as long as ETH remains below $3,200. Amid macroeconomic uncertainty and rising demand for downside protection, the $3,100 level has become a critical threshold for ETH bulls to rebalance market positioning and prevent further deterioration in investor sentiment.
$ETH
$BTC 2026? Analysts’ Bitcoin price predictions for Q1 2026: ‘Isn’t cool anymore’
In a discussion dating back to the 14th of November, a crypto analyst pointed out how Bitcoin was defending the 50-week moving average, but might fall lower.
This slump would take it to the 100-week MA, and the depths of the bear market could even take it to the 200-week MA.
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
The 50 and 100-week moving average prediction has come true. In recent weeks, the 100-week moving average has been defended as support.
At the time of writing, it was at $85.5k, lining up well with the past month’s $84k-$85k demand zone.
Beimnet Abebe of Galaxy Trading was the analyst who had made this prediction. He also said that he “would be happy to buy” Bitcoin [BTC] at prices below the $80k mark.
Is crypto and Bitcoin set to suffer more- and not just in terms of price?
In a post on X, user InvestingLuc shared a (possibly apocryphal) story that explained why “crypto isn’t cool anymore.” The real question is, he wrote,
“Does real-world crypto utility generate enough demand to offset a sustained decline in retail participation?”
Social media engagement for crypto was down. Institutional interest in Bitcoin is a positive for adoption, but we might be straying from the decentralized, permissionless ethos of early BTC adopters.
It might be losing a part of its identity that captured our interest years ago.
The reduced volatility of Bitcoin
Speaking on the CNBC Squawk Box, Professional Capital Management founder Anthony Pompliano observed that Bitcoin volatility has likely halved compared to previous years.
The spot BTC ETF flows have been negative for the most part since the 10/10 crash.
Even so, the 70%-80% drawdown that has come to define bear markets of previous cycles might not occur this time, due to institutional investors. From $126k to $84k, BTC’s drawdown was a more modest 33.3%.
This retracement came at a time when the equity markets, such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, as well as precious metals, are near or at all-time highs.
An argument can be made that the volatility drop that prevents massive drawdowns also limits the potential of bubble-like rallies.
Source: CryptoQuant
Analyst Axel Adler Jr’s True MVRV metric on CryptoQuant rose to just 2.17 in 2024. It was unable to scale 2 even after making all-time highs this year.
This could be explained partly by how ETF flows don’t affect on-chain metrics.
At the same time, more participation from smart money, as well as Bitcoin being a maturing market, meant that volatility is less than in previous cycles, and holders are more ready to realize profits and exit.
$BTC
This slump would take it to the 100-week MA, and the depths of the bear market could even take it to the 200-week MA.
Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView
The 50 and 100-week moving average prediction has come true. In recent weeks, the 100-week moving average has been defended as support.
At the time of writing, it was at $85.5k, lining up well with the past month’s $84k-$85k demand zone.
Beimnet Abebe of Galaxy Trading was the analyst who had made this prediction. He also said that he “would be happy to buy” Bitcoin [BTC] at prices below the $80k mark.
Is crypto and Bitcoin set to suffer more- and not just in terms of price?
In a post on X, user InvestingLuc shared a (possibly apocryphal) story that explained why “crypto isn’t cool anymore.” The real question is, he wrote,
“Does real-world crypto utility generate enough demand to offset a sustained decline in retail participation?”
Social media engagement for crypto was down. Institutional interest in Bitcoin is a positive for adoption, but we might be straying from the decentralized, permissionless ethos of early BTC adopters.
It might be losing a part of its identity that captured our interest years ago.
The reduced volatility of Bitcoin
Speaking on the CNBC Squawk Box, Professional Capital Management founder Anthony Pompliano observed that Bitcoin volatility has likely halved compared to previous years.
The spot BTC ETF flows have been negative for the most part since the 10/10 crash.
Even so, the 70%-80% drawdown that has come to define bear markets of previous cycles might not occur this time, due to institutional investors. From $126k to $84k, BTC’s drawdown was a more modest 33.3%.
This retracement came at a time when the equity markets, such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, as well as precious metals, are near or at all-time highs.
An argument can be made that the volatility drop that prevents massive drawdowns also limits the potential of bubble-like rallies.
Source: CryptoQuant
Analyst Axel Adler Jr’s True MVRV metric on CryptoQuant rose to just 2.17 in 2024. It was unable to scale 2 even after making all-time highs this year.
This could be explained partly by how ETF flows don’t affect on-chain metrics.
At the same time, more participation from smart money, as well as Bitcoin being a maturing market, meant that volatility is less than in previous cycles, and holders are more ready to realize profits and exit.
$BTC
Metaplanet defies fears of a “crypto winter,” aiming for 210,000 $BTC by 2027.
Metaplanet continues to move closer to its goal of holding 210,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2027, equivalent to approximately $19 billion at current prices, despite increasing pressure on digital asset treasury models. Chief Strategy Officer Dylan LeClair stated that the company's extraordinary general meeting approved several key proposals related to capital structure, facilitating the mobilization of additional resources to continue accumulating Bitcoin without immediately diluting existing shares.
While many DAT businesses are trading below their net asset value due to fears of a “crypto winter,” Metaplanet remains steadfast in its long-term strategy. The company has approved doubling its Class A and B share issuance capacity, adding a floating interest rate mechanism, and paying quarterly dividends to attract investors seeking stable returns.
Notably, Metaplanet plans to issue Class B shares to foreign institutional investors, expanding its access to international capital and strengthening its position within the global Bitcoin treasury ecosystem.
Metaplanet continues to move closer to its goal of holding 210,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2027, equivalent to approximately $19 billion at current prices, despite increasing pressure on digital asset treasury models. Chief Strategy Officer Dylan LeClair stated that the company's extraordinary general meeting approved several key proposals related to capital structure, facilitating the mobilization of additional resources to continue accumulating Bitcoin without immediately diluting existing shares.
While many DAT businesses are trading below their net asset value due to fears of a “crypto winter,” Metaplanet remains steadfast in its long-term strategy. The company has approved doubling its Class A and B share issuance capacity, adding a floating interest rate mechanism, and paying quarterly dividends to attract investors seeking stable returns.
Notably, Metaplanet plans to issue Class B shares to foreign institutional investors, expanding its access to international capital and strengthening its position within the global Bitcoin treasury ecosystem.
What are the most noteworthy cryptocurrency trends/narratives in 2026?
The next phase of cryptocurrency market growth is unfolding quietly, as the focus gradually shifts from price speculation to practical applications in daily life. Looking ahead to 2026, the level of crypto adoption will increasingly be determined by how users leverage it for payments, savings, and risk management, rather than simply seeking short-term profits.
According to representatives from CakeWallet and SynFutures, cryptocurrencies are gradually taking on the role of everyday currency, especially in countries with unstable financial systems. In many Southern markets, stablecoins have become an important tool for people to preserve asset value, weather inflation, manage capital, and mitigate risks from traditional banking. Stablecoins allow for quick storage, trading, and payments with low costs and significantly greater flexibility compared to fiat currency.
In developed economies, stablecoins are also expanding their role, not only as a bridge to fiat currency but also as a foundation for DeFi activities, derivative markets, and on-chain yield generation. Users are increasingly proactively using stablecoins as a source of working capital, rather than holding them passively.
Simultaneously, crypto user behavior is also changing. Instead of diversifying across many high-risk tokens, they are focusing more on larger assets, utilizing hedging tools and structured investment strategies. In this context, the deciding factor for the next wave of adoption is no longer infrastructure or liquidity, but user experience. Simple, intuitive, and secure platforms will play a key role in making cryptocurrencies a natural part of the global financial system by 2026.
The next phase of cryptocurrency market growth is unfolding quietly, as the focus gradually shifts from price speculation to practical applications in daily life. Looking ahead to 2026, the level of crypto adoption will increasingly be determined by how users leverage it for payments, savings, and risk management, rather than simply seeking short-term profits.
According to representatives from CakeWallet and SynFutures, cryptocurrencies are gradually taking on the role of everyday currency, especially in countries with unstable financial systems. In many Southern markets, stablecoins have become an important tool for people to preserve asset value, weather inflation, manage capital, and mitigate risks from traditional banking. Stablecoins allow for quick storage, trading, and payments with low costs and significantly greater flexibility compared to fiat currency.
In developed economies, stablecoins are also expanding their role, not only as a bridge to fiat currency but also as a foundation for DeFi activities, derivative markets, and on-chain yield generation. Users are increasingly proactively using stablecoins as a source of working capital, rather than holding them passively.
Simultaneously, crypto user behavior is also changing. Instead of diversifying across many high-risk tokens, they are focusing more on larger assets, utilizing hedging tools and structured investment strategies. In this context, the deciding factor for the next wave of adoption is no longer infrastructure or liquidity, but user experience. Simple, intuitive, and secure platforms will play a key role in making cryptocurrencies a natural part of the global financial system by 2026.
$HYPE Technical Analysis
Hyperliquid (HYPE)'s upward momentum failed to even reach the 20-day EMA ($27.09), indicating weak buying demand from bulls at higher price levels.
The bears will attempt to push Hyperliquid's price below the $22.19 support zone. If successful, the HYPE/USDT pair could retest the October 10th low at $20.82. Buyers are expected to enter at $20.82, as a break below this level could send the pair plummeting to $16.90.
The bulls need to push the price above the 20-day EMA to signal strength. This could lead to a rise to $29.37 and then to the previous breakout at $35.50.
Hyperliquid (HYPE)'s upward momentum failed to even reach the 20-day EMA ($27.09), indicating weak buying demand from bulls at higher price levels.
The bears will attempt to push Hyperliquid's price below the $22.19 support zone. If successful, the HYPE/USDT pair could retest the October 10th low at $20.82. Buyers are expected to enter at $20.82, as a break below this level could send the pair plummeting to $16.90.
The bulls need to push the price above the 20-day EMA to signal strength. This could lead to a rise to $29.37 and then to the previous breakout at $35.50.
$LINK Technical Analysis
Chainlink (LINK) price reversed downwards from the 20-day EMA ($12.91) on Monday, indicating that bears continued selling as the price recovered.
There is currently a minor support zone at $11.61, but if this level is broken, the LINK/USDT pair could fall to the strong support zone at $10.94. Buyers are expected to aggressively defend the $10.94 mark, as a breach of this level could send LINK back to the October 10th low of $7.90.
To regain the upper hand, bulls need to push the pair above the moving averages. This could lead to a price increase to $15.01. A breakout and close above the $15.01 resistance level would indicate that the downtrend may have ended.
Chainlink (LINK) price reversed downwards from the 20-day EMA ($12.91) on Monday, indicating that bears continued selling as the price recovered.
There is currently a minor support zone at $11.61, but if this level is broken, the LINK/USDT pair could fall to the strong support zone at $10.94. Buyers are expected to aggressively defend the $10.94 mark, as a breach of this level could send LINK back to the October 10th low of $7.90.
To regain the upper hand, bulls need to push the pair above the moving averages. This could lead to a price increase to $15.01. A breakout and close above the $15.01 resistance level would indicate that the downtrend may have ended.
$ADA Technical Analysis
Cardano (ADA) price has reversed downwards from the $0.37 level, indicating that bears are attempting to turn this area into a resistance zone.
Sellers will attempt to resume the downtrend by pushing the Cardano price below $0.34. If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could plummet to $0.30 and then to the October 10th low of $0.27.
Time is running out for the bulls. They need to quickly push the price above the moving averages to signal a recovery. Then, the pair could rise to the $0.50 region – the previous breakout level, which will likely act as a major barrier.
Cardano (ADA) price has reversed downwards from the $0.37 level, indicating that bears are attempting to turn this area into a resistance zone.
Sellers will attempt to resume the downtrend by pushing the Cardano price below $0.34. If that happens, the ADA/USDT pair could plummet to $0.30 and then to the October 10th low of $0.27.
Time is running out for the bulls. They need to quickly push the price above the moving averages to signal a recovery. Then, the pair could rise to the $0.50 region – the previous breakout level, which will likely act as a major barrier.
$DOGE Technical Analysis
Dogecoin reversed its upward trend from the 20-day EMA at $0.13 on Tuesday, indicating that bears are still in control of the trend.
Sellers will seek to initiate a new downtrend by pushing the Dogecoin price below $0.12. If successful, the DOGE/USDT pair could slide to the October 10th low of $0.10.
This negative outlook will be invalidated in the short term if the price bounces up from the current level and breaks above the moving averages. This development would indicate that the market has rejected a breakout below the $0.13 support zone. The pair could then recover to $0.16 and continue towards $0.19
Dogecoin reversed its upward trend from the 20-day EMA at $0.13 on Tuesday, indicating that bears are still in control of the trend.
Sellers will seek to initiate a new downtrend by pushing the Dogecoin price below $0.12. If successful, the DOGE/USDT pair could slide to the October 10th low of $0.10.
This negative outlook will be invalidated in the short term if the price bounces up from the current level and breaks above the moving averages. This development would indicate that the market has rejected a breakout below the $0.13 support zone. The pair could then recover to $0.16 and continue towards $0.19
$SOL Technical Analysis
Solana's inability to break above the 20-day EMA at $128 suggests that every recovery is being met with selling pressure.
The SOL/USDT pair faces the risk of breaking below the $116 mark. If that happens, the price of Solana could fall sharply to $108 and then to the key support zone at $95, where bottom-buying is expected to emerge.
On the upside, bulls need to push the price above the moving averages to signal strength. A short-term trend reversal will be confirmed when the pair breaks through the $147 resistance level. At that point, the price could advance to the $172 region.
Solana's inability to break above the 20-day EMA at $128 suggests that every recovery is being met with selling pressure.
The SOL/USDT pair faces the risk of breaking below the $116 mark. If that happens, the price of Solana could fall sharply to $108 and then to the key support zone at $95, where bottom-buying is expected to emerge.
On the upside, bulls need to push the price above the moving averages to signal strength. A short-term trend reversal will be confirmed when the pair breaks through the $147 resistance level. At that point, the price could advance to the $172 region.
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