Henry Insights

OpenAI and Anthropic are losing enormous amounts of money despite generating billions in revenue.
OpenAI reportedly generated $20 billion in revenue in 2025, yet is projected to lose around $14 billion during the same year.
Internal forecasts estimate cumulative losses could reach $44 billion by 2028.
In April 2026, OpenAI’s CFO reportedly warned executives that the company could face difficulties financing future computing deals if revenue growth slows down.
Anthropic reached an estimated $4.3 billion annualized revenue run rate in April 2026, while total costs climbed to nearly $19 billion.
The company is effectively spending around $3 for every $1 it earns and is not expected to stop burning cash until at least 2027.
Now look at the scale of spending commitments these two companies have made.
Together, OpenAI and Anthropic have committed roughly $1.05 trillion in cloud spending to Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon. That represents an estimated 43% to 54% of each provider’s future revenue backlog.
• Microsoft: $627B total backlog — OpenAI and Anthropic account for 49%
• Oracle: $553B total backlog — OpenAI alone accounts for 54%
• Google: $467.6B total backlog — Anthropic accounts for 43%
• Amazon: $464B total backlog — OpenAI and Anthropic account for 51%
In other words, a huge portion of the cloud industry’s future revenue is tied to two companies that are currently losing billions every quarter.
Meanwhile, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon are collectively expected to spend around $725 billion in capex during 2026, largely focused on AI infrastructure.
Combined hyperscaler capex from 2025 through 2027 is projected to reach $1.15 trillion, more than double the amount spent between 2022 and 2024.
So what is the return on all of this spending?
McKinsey’s 2025 State of AI survey found that only a minority of companies reported AI meaningfully increasing revenue or reducing costs.
Enterprise generative AI spending surged from $1.7 billion in 2023 to $37 billion in 2025, yet many CIOs still describe their AI initiatives as pilot programs without clear ROI metrics.
Microsoft’s AI business is reportedly operating at a $37 billion annual revenue run rate with 123% year-over-year growth.
That sounds impressive until you realize much of the current capex boom is being justified by expectations of future AI revenue rather than present-day AI profitability.
The internet also burned massive amounts of money before becoming one of the most profitable industries in history.
But right now, we have over $1 trillion in committed cloud spending, $725 billion in annual capex, two loss-making companies making up a massive share of hyperscaler revenue backlogs, and enterprises spending aggressively on AI while many still cannot clearly explain whether the investment is actually delivering results.
#BitcoinBreaksBelow75KAsWarshTakesFedHelm #FenwickWestSettlesFTXFor54M #ARMABillIntroducedWith20YrLockup #BitcoinETFsShed$1.26BInSixDays

And it could decide whether the AI bubble still has fuel left or if it already peaked.
Nvidia reports earnings after the US market close today.
Wall Street is expecting:
• Revenue: $79.12 billion
• Expected growth: +79.56% YoY
That means Nvidia is expected to generate almost $80 billion in revenue in just one quarter.
And this is no longer just another tech earnings report.
Nvidia’s market cap is now approaching $5.5 trillion.
That makes Nvidia worth more than the annual GDP of every country on Earth except the US and China.
That is how large the AI trade has become.
Over the last few quarters, Nvidia kept beating expectations again and again.
Its last report came in at:
• EPS: 1.62 vs 1.50 expected
• Revenue: $68.1 billion in a single quarter
Those earnings helped keep the entire AI rally alive.
Every strong Nvidia print pushed:
• Semiconductors higher
• AI stocks higher
• Nasdaq higher
But today’s report matters much more than the previous ones.
The market is now looking for any signs that AI demand is starting to slow down.
There are already growing concerns across parts of the semiconductor supply chain about:
• Slower server demand
• Inventory build-up
• Hyperscalers slowing future orders after massive spending over the last 2 years
At the same time, China is becoming a much bigger problem for Nvidia.
The US keeps tightening export restrictions on advanced AI chips.
China is also pushing state-backed data centers and companies to reduce dependence on Nvidia hardware and use domestic chips instead.
That creates long-term pressure on one of the world’s largest AI markets.
This is why today’s guidance matters more than the headline EPS number.
If Nvidia reports another massive beat and raises guidance, the AI rally probably continues.
But if guidance weakens or management signals slower demand ahead, the impact could spread across the entire market very quickly.
Because right now:
• AI stocks are carrying the indices
• Mega caps dominate market performance
• Valuations are already extremely stretched
• Investors are heavily positioned into the same trade
A weak Nvidia report would not just hurt one stock.
It could trigger selling across:
• Semiconductors
• AI stocks
• Nasdaq
• S&P 500
• Crypto
• Broader risk assets
And it would raise a much bigger question:
Has the biggest market bubble of this cycle already started losing momentum?
#GoogleLaunchesGemini3.5Flash #SenateCurbsIranWarPowersBTCBounces #Trump'sIranAttackDelayed #TrumpOrdersFedCryptoPaymentRailsReview

In 2008, SpaceX was on the edge of collapse.
Elon Musk later revealed that the company had enough money left for just one final Falcon 1 launch. Three launches had already failed. Another failure would likely have ended SpaceX completely.
At the same time, Tesla was struggling financially, the global economy was entering a major crisis, and investors were losing confidence everywhere.
Everything came down to one launch.
Then Falcon 1 finally reached orbit on its fourth attempt.
That single moment changed the future of the aerospace industry forever.
Now, nearly two decades later, the same company that was once weeks away from bankruptcy is reportedly preparing for the largest IPO in stock market history.
SpaceX is targeting a Nasdaq listing on June 12 under the ticker $SPCX with a reported valuation target of $1.75 trillion.
If the company successfully prices at that level, it would instantly become one of the most valuable companies on Earth and potentially the largest IPO ever recorded.
The numbers alone are difficult to ignore.
SpaceX is reportedly looking to raise around $75 billion through the offering. That would massively surpass Saudi Aramco’s record-breaking 2019 IPO, which raised approximately $29 billion.
Even more impressive is how quickly the valuation has accelerated.
In December 2025, SpaceX was reportedly valued around $800 billion during its private tender offer. After the merger with xAI earlier this year, estimates climbed toward $1.25 trillion.
Now the company is aiming even higher.
This isn’t just about rockets anymore.
SpaceX has quietly evolved into something much larger than a traditional aerospace company. It now operates across satellite internet, launch infrastructure, AI integration, defense technology, communications, and space logistics.
Starlink alone already changed global internet accessibility in many regions. Governments, militaries, businesses, and remote communities increasingly depend on its infrastructure.
That creates recurring revenue, not just experimental technology.
And that’s one of the biggest reasons investors continue assigning higher valuations to the company.
Markets reward infrastructure.
Especially infrastructure that competitors struggle to replicate.
Very few companies in the world can launch reusable rockets at scale, operate a global satellite network, build AI systems, and maintain direct relationships with both governments and commercial enterprises simultaneously.
SpaceX sits in a category with almost no direct comparison.
But the bigger story here goes beyond valuation.
This IPO represents one of the clearest examples of how long-term conviction can completely change outcomes.
Back in 2008, most people viewed SpaceX as another ambitious project likely to fail. Rockets exploding repeatedly became easy headlines. Critics openly questioned whether private space companies could even survive.
Today, those same early failures look like the foundation of a future trillion-dollar company.
That shift matters because many of the world’s largest companies were built during periods when almost nobody believed in them.
The market often celebrates success only after the risk has already disappeared.
But real innovation usually looks uncertain in the beginning.
SpaceX survived because it continued building while operating under extreme pressure. One successful launch created momentum. Momentum attracted contracts. Contracts created revenue. Revenue funded larger ambitions.
Over time, the impossible slowly became normal.
Now the company that once depended on a single rocket launch for survival is preparing for one of the biggest financial events in modern market history.
Whether the IPO launches at the full $1.75 trillion valuation or not, one thing is already clear:
SpaceX is no longer just a space company.
It has become one of the strongest symbols of how persistence, execution, and long-term vision can reshape entire industries.
#ElonMuskTalks #SpaceX

For months, the market kept climbing while optimism returned everywhere. AI stocks exploded, indexes stayed near highs, and retail traders once again started believing every dip would recover instantly.
But behind the scenes, some of the biggest investors in the world quietly started doing the exact opposite.
The latest Q1 2026 SEC filings revealed something unusual. Billionaire investors who normally have very different strategies suddenly moved in the same direction at the same time: reducing risk, cutting exposure, and holding more cash.
That kind of alignment rarely happens by accident.
Warren Buffett is now sitting on nearly $397 billion in cash, the largest cash position Berkshire Hathaway has ever held. He trimmed positions like Chevron and Amazon while reducing exposure across several major holdings. Buffett usually prefers staying invested, so when cash levels reach records, markets pay attention.
Chris Hohn made one of the most aggressive moves of the quarter by selling more than 80% of his Microsoft position. Instead of chasing high-growth tech names, he rotated into businesses like Visa, Moody’s, and S&P Global. These companies don’t depend on hype cycles. They profit from transactions, ratings, and financial infrastructure regardless of market direction.
Daniel Loeb also dramatically reduced risk. His disclosed equity portfolio dropped from over $7 billion to almost $2 billion in a single quarter. Positions tied to growth, transportation, and financials were heavily reduced.
Bill Ackman cut almost all of his Google exposure, while David Tepper significantly reduced positions in Microsoft, Meta, and Qualcomm. Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global also continued scaling back after another difficult quarter.
Then came David Einhorn’s investor letter.
He openly stated that his focus had shifted back toward capital preservation. His fund is now running one of the most hedged positions of his entire career.
That alone says a lot.
The important part here is not whether these investors are permanently bearish. The real signal is that many of them no longer see attractive risk-reward opportunities at current valuations.
And honestly, the numbers support their caution.
At the beginning of 2026, the Shiller CAPE ratio climbed near 39, more than double the long-term historical average. Historically, periods with valuations this stretched have often been followed by weaker future returns or sharp corrections.
Institutional surveys are also showing growing concern. Many large investors now expect increased volatility or a meaningful market reset before conditions improve again.
At the same time, hedge funds have reportedly been reducing exposure to several sectors at the fastest pace seen in years.
This doesn’t automatically mean a crash is guaranteed tomorrow.
But it does suggest that smart money is becoming far more defensive while public sentiment remains relatively optimistic.
That difference matters.
Retail traders often focus only on price action. Big investors focus on positioning, liquidity, and risk management. When uncertainty increases, preserving capital becomes more important than chasing the final part of a rally.
This is usually the stage where markets become fragile.
One unexpected macro event, weaker earnings season, geopolitical shock, or liquidity tightening can quickly change sentiment. And when positioning is crowded, exits become smaller than people expect.
The bigger lesson here is not “sell everything.”
It’s understanding that even the world’s best investors are preparing for tougher conditions instead of blindly chasing upside.
Patience is also a position.
Sometimes the smartest move in the market is not aggressive buying. Sometimes it’s waiting for better opportunities while everyone else is distracted by short-term excitement.
The coming months could become one of the most important tests for global markets in years.
And judging by these filings, smart money already knows it.
#BerkshireHeavilyIncreasesAlphabetStake #THORChainHackCauses$10.7MLoss #BitcoinETFsSee$131MNetInflows #VitalikMovesETHviaPrivacyPools #DuneCuts25%AmidAIEfficiencyPush