April to early October was classic distribution. A failed push near 126K followed by a clean markdown into the 80K area.
What we’re seeing now looks like accumulation. The key level to watch is a failed sell-off — the spring. That’s usually what opens the door for the next markup phase.
Either we move into a fresh markup toward another distribution range, or we get a second re-accumulation, similar to what played out between Feb and Oct 2024.
This isn’t random price action. Large players follow a playbook. Most people react to it.
$BTC right now looks a lot like late 2022 when price was stuck around 16K. Sentiment was washed, December was weak, and most people had already given up.
What followed was a quiet shift and a January rebound.
History doesn’t repeat perfectly, but it often rhymes. If this pattern plays out again, early January could mark another change in market mood.
Not calling tops or bottoms. Just paying attention to the structure and the timing.
Volume is thin and momentum remains weak — likely a mix of the holiday season and weekend conditions. Alts are still struggling to get going, and price action feels forced and unreliable.
This isn’t the kind of environment where forcing trades makes sense. There’s no edge in staying active just for the sake of it.
One high-quality setup will always beat multiple random entries. For now, patience is the real position.
Wait for volume to return, momentum to build, and let the market come to you.