Trader Mike pro

If the war actually ends in the next 2-3 weeks, do you know what to do?
Most traders don't. They'll see the ceasefire headline and ape long with leverage. Some will make money. Most will get wrecked on the fakeout.
I've studied how markets react to the end of every major geopolitical conflict in the last 20 years. Here's the pattern.
𝐏𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝟏: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐮𝐦𝐨𝐫 𝐑𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 (𝐀𝐋𝐑𝐄𝐀𝐃𝐘 𝐇𝐀𝐏𝐏𝐄𝐍𝐄𝐃)
Markets pump on the first whisper of peace. This already happened on March 4 ( to $74K) and again on April 1 (bounce on Trump comments). These rallies are fast, violent, and usually give back 50-80% of the move.
𝐏𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝟐: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐏𝐨𝐩
When the actual ceasefire is signed, markets pop again. But this move is usually SMALLER than Phase 1 because smart money already positioned during the rumor. The "buy the rumor, sell the news" applies here.
𝐏𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝟑: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐯𝐞 (𝟐-𝟒 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐬 𝐀𝐟𝐭𝐞𝐫)
This is where the real trend starts. Oil drops. Rate cut expectations revive. Risk appetite returns. The first SUSTAINED move in BTC and ETH comes 2-4 weeks after confirmed peace, not on the day of.
𝐌𝐲 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐛𝐨𝐨𝐤:
Rumor rallies: Sell into them (did this in March, doing it now)
Confirmation pop: Small long, take profit fast, don't hold
Phase 3 (2-4 weeks later): FULL position, ride the trend
The biggest mistake is going all-in on Phase 1 or Phase 2. Patience is the edge. The real money is in Phase 3 when everyone else has already been chopped up.
Save this framework. You'll need it soon.