OnChainIntel

Donald Trump has warned Canada that if it signs special trade deals with China, the U.S. could respond with 100% tariffs on Canadian exports.
This is not just political noise. It’s an economic pressure move.
Here’s what’s really going on 👇
🇨🇦 Canada’s Vulnerability
Canada sends 75–76% of all its exports to the U.S.
That’s over $450 billion per year.
A 100% tariff would instantly make most Canadian goods uncompetitive in the U.S. market.
Sectors at risk: • Autos & auto parts
• Energy exports
• Aluminum & steel
• Manufacturing
Trade with the U.S. equals roughly two-thirds of Canada’s GDP when you include indirect exposure.
This makes Canada extremely sensitive to U.S. trade retaliation.
🇺🇸 Trump’s Core Fear: Trade Routing
The real concern isn’t Canada itself.
It’s China using Canada as a back door into the U.S.
If Canada signs favorable trade deals with China, Chinese companies could: • Ship goods into Canada
• Relabel or lightly process them
• Re-export them into the U.S.
• Avoid U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods
Trump calls this using Canada as a “drop-off port.”
And from Washington’s perspective, it would break U.S. trade policy against China.
📉 We’ve Already Seen the Damage From Much Smaller Tariffs
In 2018–2019: • U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian steel
• 10% tariffs on Canadian aluminum
Result: • Canadian steel exports to the U.S. fell 41%
• Aluminum exports fell 19%
• ~$16.6B CAD of trade was disrupted
• Production cuts, job losses, higher costs, slower supply chains
And that was with just 10–25% tariffs.
Now imagine 100% tariffs.
🇨🇳 Why Canada Still Wants China
Canada is trying to diversify away from over-dependence on the U.S.
China: • Buys major volumes of Canadian canola & seafood
• Is key to EV & battery supply chains
• Offers long-term growth demand
From Canada’s perspective: ➡️ This makes economic sense.
From the U.S. perspective: ➡️ This looks like a strategic threat.
⚠️ Bottom Line
Canada is stuck in the middle of the U.S.–China trade war.
If it leans toward China: • It risks massive U.S. tariffs
• Severe economic shock
• Market instability
If it stays tied only to the U.S.: • It remains dangerously dependent on a single trading partner
This isn’t just politics anymore.
It’s a macro-level trade conflict that could hit: • North American supply chains
• Equity markets
• FX markets
• Commodities
• Global risk sentiment

Russia has now sold over 71% of the gold reserves held inside its National Wealth Fund (NWF) to finance war spending.$XAU
The NWF is Russia’s emergency reserve — used when oil revenues fall or spending surges.
Before the war, it held over $113B in liquid assets.
Today, it’s down to ~$50B.
➡️ More than half of Russia’s financial buffer is already gone.
⚔️ War Now Costs More Than Energy Earns
For the first time in decades:
💥 Russia’s military budget now exceeds its total oil & gas revenue.
Oil once funded everything.
Now, war spending is outpacing energy income.
📉 Energy Revenues Are Collapsing
🔻 Down 22% YoY in 2025
🔻 November alone: –34%
🛢️ Bigger discounts on Russian crude
🚫 Sanctions tightening logistics & payments
💸 Budget Deficit Is Exploding
Planned deficit: 1.2 trillion rubles
Revised deficit: 5.7 trillion rubles
That’s a 5x jump in one year.
This is why Russia is liquidating gold inside the NWF.
⏳ The Clock Is Ticking
At current burn rates, economists estimate:
🕒 The liquid portion of the NWF runs out by mid-2026.
That’s the real timeline markets should be watching.
🧨 What Happens Next?
When the fund is depleted, Russia has only four options:
1️⃣ Cut war spending
2️⃣ Print money → inflation surge
3️⃣ Raise taxes → recession risk
4️⃣ Increase domestic debt → rising interest costs
None are painless.
🌍 Why This Is a Global Risk
This isn’t about financial contagion.
It’s about supply shocks.
Russia still controls critical commodities:
⚛️ 40% of uranium enrichment
🌾 24% of global wheat exports
🌱 18% of fertilizers
💎 40% of palladium supply
⚠️ Bottom Line
Russia is running out of money.
But it still controls key resources the world depends on.
That combination makes this a geopolitical and commodity-market time bomb.

Every major crash looked like “the end of the market” at the time.
Yet… each one became a once-in-a-generation buying opportunity.
1️⃣ Harshad Mehta Scam (1992)
🔻 Fall: 54% | ⏳ Recovery: 2 Years 4 Months
2️⃣ Dot-Com Bubble (2000)
🔻 Fall: 56% | ⏳ Recovery: 2 Years 3 Months
3️⃣ Global Financial Crisis (2008)
🔻 Fall: 61% | ⏳ Recovery: 1 Year 8 Months
4️⃣ COVID Crash (2020)
🔻 Fall: 38% | ⏳ Recovery: 8 Months
People said the same things every time:
💬 “I’ll wait for a deeper dip…”
💬 “It’s too risky to buy now…”
💬 “I missed the rally…”
📌 What history actually shows:
✅ Markets always recover
✅ Every recovery makes new highs
✅ Fear creates the best opportunities
💡 The biggest money is made when fear is high and prices are low.
Don’t wait for perfect conditions.
They only exist in hindsight.

Between 1999 and 2002, former UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown sold 60% of Britain’s gold reserves at an average price of $275 per ounce — a move now known as the “Brown Bottom.”
📊 The numbers are brutal:
• 400 tons of gold ≈ 12,860,000 oz$XAU
• Sold at $275/oz ≈ $3.5 billion
• Worth at $5,000/oz today ≈ $64 billion
That’s a difference of over $60 billion.
What made it even worse?
Brown announced the sales in Parliament before executing them, causing gold prices to crash immediately. Prices stayed suppressed until the UK finished selling — and then gold went on a massive multi-year bull run.
A textbook example of:
❌ Terrible timing
❌ Poor communication
❌ Selling a hard asset at generational lows
History doesn’t repeat… but it sure rhymes.