老哥老哥

信息太快节奏太快，人心太快，
都想立刻赚到收益，立刻发财。

芒格说，普通人翻盘最顶级的能力不是聪明，而是耐心。

三天没结果就放弃，一个月没收益就摆烂，
半年没突破就换方向。

真正拉开差距的，是能长期坚持的人。

聪明决定起点，耐心决定终点。

别急着要结果，耐心才是复利的钥匙。

哈哈，能把一件赚钱的事干10年以上的朋友圈寥寥无几。

喝鸡汤没用，关键是养只能长期生蛋的鸡，耐心即终极资产。

2026 World Cup knockout stage prediction data is out!

Two major platforms both believe France will win the title, with Argentina close behind.

Also, the number of viewers has broken 3.6 million, setting a new all-time high—haha.

Here’s a fun fact: in past World Cup years, BTC market trends have generally been favorable.

World Cup-related prediction markets are starting to be “financialized” together by crypto platforms and compliant finance,
with match outcomes turning into tradable assets.

1 Polymarket: France 23% to win, Argentina 22%; the top two account for nearly half of all funds

2 Kalshi: France 20%, Argentina 16%; market consensus says France is the top favorite

The 23% isn’t expert forecasting—it’s the result of money-voting

The real big players are using it for information arbitrage,

regular people think they’re just playing with odds,
but institutions see
information gaps
sentiment gaps
pricing discrepancies

Who gets information faster can make money.

The essence of World Cup prediction markets isn’t just an upgraded version of gambling—it’s that real-world events are being repriced by financial markets.

Bought more again?
Saylor is sending out X to stabilize sentiment.

As long as Saylor posts this image + a buy-the-dip caption, there’s a 90% chance that before the market opens next Monday, US stocks will release a notice about a large purchase of coins—an indicator that institutional capital is positioning in advance.

Earlier, because they sold 32 BTC to pay dividends—still the first sale since 2022—it sparked widespread panic.

This time, posting the image clearly offsets market panic. It signals to the outside world that the small selling is only to manage cash flow, while big capital continues to enter. That should dispel the bears’ expectations of shorting MSTR.

Ripple CEO and other big names in the industry have also recently publicly piled on.

They claim that what MicroStrategy is doing is pure financial engineering/speculative trading, not building on the underlying value of blockchain. It will collapse sooner or later. They even go so far as to criticize MicroStrategy for dragging down liquidity across the entire crypto market.

When industry insiders publicly start tearing into each other, it shows this isn’t just a normal industry adjustment anymore—it’s evolved into a “three-way game of struggle” between traditional Wall Street, crypto-native proponents, and the MicroStrategy leveraged camp.

In fact, Saylor’s message is really meant for those Wall Street big creditors who hold MicroStrategy preferred shares and are preparing to dump and liquidate.

Do you know that?
Schiff warned that the damage to BTC from Strategy’s collapse will be greater than the damage caused by FTX’s collapse.

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—the official top regulator for U.S. derivatives—has formally approved prediction market platform Kalshi to launch a compliant perpetual futures contract, with its initial offering pegged to Bitcoin.

Until now, U.S.-compliant platforms could only trade futures with delivery dates. The perpetual contracts everyone loves—those without an expiration date—were basically all traded on offshore, shady exchanges.

Now the official, mainstream “nationwide team” has entered. Even U.S. retail investors can legally and compliantly use leverage to trade perps. The pace of this compliance push is just too fast.

The U.S. is “seizing derivatives pricing power.”

What are perpetual futures?
They’re the core machinery for price discovery in the crypto market.

Who controls the perpetual market:

Whoever controls it influences price volatility
Whoever controls it determines the direction of liquidity

Now the U.S. is moving pricing power from offshore trading venues back into the domestic regulatory system.

In the future, a compliant version of the crypto leverage market may emerge.

You can think of it like this:

Past: One exchange = the global casino hub

Future (possibly):
The U.S.-regulated perpetual market = the Wall Street casino (but legal)

The difference is only this:

One is unregulated
One is regulated, but can attract much larger pools of capital.

The real point:

Institutional capital finally has an entry point.

Why didn’t institutions dare to play perps before?

Because

Not compliant
Risk was uncontrollable
Audits couldn’t pass

But if:
CFTC oversight + the U.S. system

Then the result is:

Hedge funds can legally use high leverage
ETFs/institutions can participate in derivatives hedging
Liquidity could surge massively

Blood in the market is the milk inside the eyes of the great whales.

This year ETH has fallen 45%, which is brutal. But big institutions and large holders are疯狂ly scooping up and buying.

Because what they look at isn’t the price—they’re looking at ETH’s financial attributes and the earnings structure over the next few years.

When the Nasdaq-listed institution SharpLink added 5,000 more ETH after an 8-month gap, then topped up another 26,000 liquid-staked ETH, it now holds more than 870,000 ETH. Even with an unrealized paper loss of $1.7 billion, they still keep stacking.

And there’s also a new giant whale that bought 18,000 ETH in just 9 days, while BlackRock also made large transfers of ETH.

But spot ETF fund flows continue to run out. Retail and institutions are sharply divided.

Long-term capital is betting on ETH’s future, while short-term retail and ETF investors are running away. If you want a major surge, ETF money needs to return.

The market’s disagreement is actually right here:

Retail: ETH = a meme/altcoin
Institutions: ETH = Web3 interest-bearing asset + digital financial infrastructure

The same thing—two completely different valuation frameworks.

One more special reminder:

Big holders trade directly with each other hand-to-hand—cash for delivery—without going through the exchanges we usually watch.

So when they buy tens of millions of dollars, the displayed price on the order book won’t necessarily rise. The point is to quietly build positions while retail investors are unaware.

Retail is hurting over losses in the here and now, while the big players have already calculated the interest for the coming years and the chips for the next bull run.

Tokenized stock total market value exceeds $1 billion!
SpaceX’s on-chain token SPCX directly ignites the entire sector, bringing the whole market to life.

Solana has absorbed 95% of the trading volume.
But the industry still faces two major pain points: liquidity fragmentation and U.S. regulatory crackdowns.

Assets are moving from legal structures into data structures.

In the past, assets were: company + shares + exchanges + clearing systems.

Now they’re starting to become a string of on-chain Tokens.

The difference is:

Previously, it was confirmed by national law.
Now it’s confirmed by code and custody mechanisms.

At its core, financial assets are being software-ified.

Also, the biggest change isn’t the way people trade—it’s who can participate.

Traditional finance:

You need an account.
You need a compliant identity.
You need a broker.

On-chain finance:

A wallet is enough to participate.
Global, without borders.

The result is that the investor base is completely rewritten—shifting from institution-centered to globally retail-driven.

But today, the real controversy is whether this is financial innovation or a shadow market.

The biggest dispute around tokenized stocks isn’t the stock itself, but the mapped (representative) asset.

The question is: is the mapping 100% anchored to the real stock?

If it isn’t, you’ll see price divergence, liquidity mismatches, and information asymmetry.

So what regulators worry about most is:
what you’re trading—an actual asset, or the shadow of the asset.

To sum up:

Tokenized stocks aren’t a brand-new product; they’re the starting point of traditional finance being re-encoded.

It’s like a highly realistic shadow—its price moves in sync with yours, but the body isn’t yours.

STRC: These days the price has hit a historic low, plunging to $71!

This STRC stock is fundamentally unfair to retail investors by design—it’s a classic setup of limited upside and unlimited downside.

Like when Bitcoin surges
STRC’s price is tightly capped at $100; you can’t get even a cent of additional upside—you only receive those small fixed interest payments.

But when Bitcoin crashes
It doesn’t protect your principal at all. As it is now, it simply follows the broader market down, crashing straight to $71.

That’s essentially retail investors taking the same risk of going to zero as Big BTC, while handing over all the doubled-up gains to MicroStrategy with both hands.

It’s practically a textbook case of using retail investors’ principal to validate Saylor’s beliefs.

And they promise 11.5% interest—once the five-year average BTC return drops below 13%, the arbitrage window is instantly shut, even turning into a situation where they end up paying back. The game can’t continue.

Now, executives are quietly laying the groundwork to dump.

Although the company’s president publicly reassures everyone on CNBC that we won’t easily dump and sell Bitcoin.

But in the financial world, when executives publicly say they won’t sell, it often means they’ve already made the legal preparations to sell at any time.

He even left a loophole: they can sell to cover STRC’s interest payments and for tax optimization.

This is really a warning shot to the market: if STRC drops too badly and triggers cascading liquidations, the company—so it can plug the interest-payment hole—could suddenly dump large amounts of BTC in the market at any moment. That’s the sword hanging over the entire crypto world right now, the one everyone fears most.

Next, the funding chain built on telling stories with BTC is starting to get brittle.

Polymarket has caught the attention of US regulators—now the CFTC is on the case.

Look for influencers filming fake “winning” gambling videos.

In the videos, it looks like they’ve made a lot of money.

But in reality, both the bets and the winnings are fake.

And even worse—

They use copies of fake websites to get people to film videos.

The profit figures shown in the videos are fabricated.

The goal is to make ordinary people think it’s very easy to make money, so they’ll jump in.

Now regulators are investigating.

Is there misleading promotion + fake trading marketing + illegal lead generation?

Polymarket is being checked on whether it used fake “making money” videos to trick users into entering the platform.

Do you think US regulators are all perfectly impartial?

Actually, they’ve been fighting internally for a long time.

Polymarket previously hired Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, as an adviser,

and the current CFTC chair was also appointed by the Trump administration.

This has led to intense internal competition within the CFTC over being the sole regulator for platforms like this—so much so that they’re even reaching into state laws across the US.

Part of the reason they’re conducting such a high-profile investigation is to secure their jurisdictional turf when there’s a regime transition and regulators are reorganized.

The platform constantly promotes that prediction markets represent the smartest “wisdom of the crowd,” but according to on-chain data analysis, this platform is an extremely brutal pyramid.

Sixty-seven percent of the platform’s profits are taken by only 0.1% of the top “whales” (or insiders).

More than 70% of ordinary retail users who enter end up basically just donating money.

You think you’re betting with your intelligence to predict the future—but really, you’re wagering against people who hold the top-tier data models, or even those with insider information.

Many Western media outlets like to cite Polymarket’s win rates as if they were polls of public opinion.

This has spawned a whole black-industry operation.

Certain political forces or wealthy backers only need to spend tens of millions of dollars on the platform, wildly placing bets on a particular outcome, to artificially push the win rate from 40% to 60%.

Once the media reports it, ordinary people develop a psychological impression that “this person is going to win,” which then manipulates real-world votes.

That’s the kind of money-to-public-opinion operation—what US politicians and senators are genuinely afraid of this time and what led them to finally go for the kill.

True vitality lies in political maneuvering.

If oil prices continue to rise, inflation may heat up again.
Then it will be even harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, and near-term pressure on risk assets like BTC will likely increase.

On-chain data shows that more and more “big pancakes” are sitting in unrealized losses, and nearly 40% of holders are essentially clenching their teeth and holding on.
Historically, when this ratio climbs to around 50%, it usually signals that the market has entered a deep panic zone—selling pressure gradually exhausts,
but that doesn’t mean the price will immediately reverse; the bottom often needs time and confirmation through repeated testing.

Why can oil prices pin BTC by the neck?

The White House and the Federal Reserve are playing the next move in a political chess match.

Around the U.S. election, to suppress the inflation numbers, the authorities will frequently tap into crude oil reserves or issue permits for crude oil exports—for example, allowing special regions to proceed in order to crash oil prices.

Once oil prices are forcibly pushed down through political means, inflation expectations can flip instantly. And when the Fed’s stance changes, the crypto market can finally see true long-drought rain.

What truly affects the market isn’t oil prices themselves, but how oil prices change the Fed’s decisions.

The logic is simple:

Oil prices rise
Business costs increase
Goods get more expensive
Inflation heats up
The Federal Reserve keeps high interest rates for longer.

And the biggest enemy of high interest rates is all risk assets—including BTC and U.S. stocks.

So what you really need to watch isn’t just the BTC price.

It’s three macro variables:

Will oil prices keep rising?
Will U.S. inflation re-accelerate?
Will the Federal Reserve delay rate cuts because of this?

These three factors may determine BTC’s next leg of the cycle even more than any other crypto “good news.”

X Money has finally arrived.

Transfer
Receive
Save money
Get paid
And you can even earn deposit interest.

In the U.S., when you keep your money in a PayPal or Venmo wallet, if those platforms go under, nobody will compensate your money (no FDIC federal deposit insurance).

But this time, Musk has gone big. Through partner banks, he’s applied for up to $10 million in deposit insurance for X Money!

That means putting money in X is now so secure it directly wipes out all the mainstream third-party payment apps on the market in the U.S. This time, Old Man Musk is cutting off the exit routes of traditional financial giants.

Although the initial launch only supports transfers in U.S. dollars, Musk and the X team have already built the underlying architecture with cryptocurrency integration in mind.

Insiders in the crypto world have been watching this feature closely, because everyone knows that once the U.S. states’ fiat currency licenses are all fully sorted, Musk’s next move will definitely be to open direct transfers and tips for Dogecoin or Bitcoin.

In the future, many people might not even download exchanges.

Instead, they’ll do everything directly in X:

Chat

Transfer

Buy stablecoins

Buy BTC

Buy stocks.

This means crypto assets finally have a chance to become a payment tool that ordinary people use every day—rather than an investment product that only exists inside exchanges.

It’s currently officially rolling out to U.S. Premium and Premium+ subscribers.

Finally, here’s an example:

On the day X Money officially launched for U.S. Premium/Premium+ users, a user named Corey used X Money to send $25 to Elon and posted a screenshot.

Elon publicly replied to confirm he received it, and the post quickly went viral.

Multicoin：HYPE could potentially rise by 406% by 2028.

What’s truly worth paying attention to isn’t whether HYPE can go up 4x.

It’s that the logic Wall Street uses to evaluate projects has changed.

Before, people traded crypto by chasing stories and narratives.

Now, more and more institutions are looking at:

How much money can it make
How much cash flow there is
Whether users will keep growing
Whether it can be valued like an internet company

In other words:

The crypto market is gradually shifting from a concept-trading era to an era focused on profits.

Who can keep making money is who is more likely to secure long-term institutional capital.

So the real big opportunities don’t necessarily come from the projects that tell the best stories, but from those that can continuously generate real revenue.

Bob Loukas, with over 30 years of trading experience: A bear market doesn’t mean Bitcoin is dead.

Many people are still using their 2017 playbook to look at the 2026 Bitcoin market.

The market structure has changed.

Back then, the big coin mainly moved on retail investors, so we saw violent rallies and crashes.

Now, more and more ETFs, institutional capital, and corporate funds are coming in. Their buying cycles are measured in quarters and years—not chasing pumps and selling in panic every day.

This means that in the future, BTC might see fewer one-night 2x gains, but it may also see fewer day-long 50% drops.

In fact, often times price declines and fundamentals don’t move in sync.

What really affects short-term price is usually:

leveraged liquidation cascades, ETF fund inflows and outflows, institutional position adjustments, and market sentiment.

And what ultimately determines long-term price is still whether demand continues to increase.

So real pros rarely spend every day guessing whether prices will go up or down.

They focus on one key question:

Is the market shaking people out of their seats, or is there already nobody left willing to sell?

The biggest opportunities often emerge when the market is at its quietest and most hopeless—not when everyone online is already shouting “bull market.”

In every major cycle, big selloffs, panic, and doubt almost always show up.

Before each bull run begins, most people are first shaken out.

The people who truly make money aren’t the ones who always buy the bottom—they’re the ones who, when the market is most pessimistic, refuse to hand their chips over.

The biggest trap in the market is never the drop itself—it’s getting you to believe: “This time is really different.”

Hold your BTC, keep your capital ready, and wait for the big breakdown—then board the train.

The biggest lie on Wall Street isn’t that ETFs are bad.​​

It’s that they make you think: once you buy an ETF, you can lie back and make money.​​

What truly causes 90% of people to lose isn’t the ETF—it’s human nature.​​

When prices fall, panic-sell; when prices rise, chase the hotspots; when it feels too slow, add leverage; when you urgently need cash, you’re forced to sell at a low level.​​

Warren Buffett has already shown that long-term holding of ordinary index funds can, many times, outperform most top hedge fund managers.​​

The biggest enemy of investing isn’t the market—it’s yourself.​​

Many people don’t realize that the greatest value of ETFs isn’t returns.​​

It’s that they help ordinary people accept one thing:​​
I can’t beat the market.​​

The real money-makers rarely study candlestick charts every day, and they certainly don’t constantly switch stocks or projects.​​

What they do is a very boring thing:​​
keep buying, hold long term, and don’t sell impulsively.​​

Every few years, the market delivers a major drop. What truly gets eliminated isn’t the person who can’t pick stocks or coins, but the one who can’t last.​​

In a bull market, you make money with your mindset; in a bear market, you make money with your position size.​​

In the end, what often determines wealth isn’t the return rate, but whether you can keep staying at the table.​​

In this market, what can save you isn’t some mysterious code or insider information—but your extremely rational mind.​​

The above content is more suitable for people who hold BTC.

GPT-5.6 will be delayed.

The U.S. government is demanding that OpenAI release access in batches.

The first batch will only be available to a small number of companies and partners,
and who gets to try it early will require government approval.

Put simply,

In the future, AI may no longer be something that’s developed and then launched immediately.

Instead, it will look more and more like defense technology and drug approvals.

Review first, then release.

Many people haven’t realized that

In the past, the competition was about who had the stronger model.

In the future, the competition will be about who is qualified to use the strongest AI first.

The most advanced AI of the future will very likely all go through

first testing by the government,
then defense, finance, and large enterprises,
and only last will ordinary users get access.

That means the most valuable thing in the future may not necessarily be the AI itself.

It will be the authorization to use AI.

If this model becomes the norm, the global AI industry may officially enter a new era:

Top-tier AI will no longer be a publicly available product, but a regulated strategic resource.

BitMine is becoming an “ETH version of MicroStrategy.”

But on the company’s books, it has already racked up nearly $10 billion in losses,

and the stock price has fallen more than 90% in a year. They haven’t sold at all—instead, they’re疯狂ly buying ETH.

Here’s the question:

If ETH keeps dropping, BMNR might not be an “ETH version of MicroStrategy.”

It could be the “ETH version of Lehman Brothers.”

What BMNR is doing right now is very simple:

Issue shares
Raise financing
Buy ETH
Issue more shares
Keep buying ETH

They’re no longer a traditional company.

In essence, it’s a leveraged ETH ETF.

If ETH rises 10%, BMNR could rise 30%

If ETH falls 10%, BMNR could fall 30%

Both risk and returns are amplified.

Actually, what Tom Lee is betting on is something else:
Whether Wall Street will accept ETH as a reserve asset in the future.

If that happens:
Companies buy ETH
ETFs buy ETH
Pensions buy ETH
ETH becomes the institutional standard allocation

BMNR will take off directly.

But the risk is also right here.

BMNR’s biggest risk isn’t really the price of ETH.

It’s: continuous share issuance.

Because the company has no cash, it can only keep issuing new shares to raise funds to buy ETH.

Before ETH has risen, existing shareholders will be continuously diluted.

One detail many people haven’t noticed:
MicroStrategy buys BTC.
BMNR buys ETH.

They look similar.
In reality, they’re completely different.

BTC won’t be issued further.
ETH will continuously release staking rewards.

BTC is digital gold.
ETH is more like a digital financial system.

So BMNR is actually betting that:

In the future, ETH’s yield rate and ecosystem value can it exceed the reserve value of BTC.

This is an internal route battle within Wall Street.

How low will SpaceX’s stock price fall in the next 30 days?

From a peak of $225 to $154—within just a few days, it has pulled back more than 30%.

SpaceX may be repeating the story of Tesla back then.

Phase one: retail investors go crazy chasing it

Phase two: the valuation far exceeds fundamentals

Phase three: the stock price gets cut in half

Phase four: institutions gradually accumulate shares at low levels

Phase five: the real bull market begins

Many Wall Street funds aren’t afraid of SpaceX going down—they actually hope it drops even harder.

The biggest risk for SpaceX isn’t the rockets; it’s the valuation.

The valuation the market is assigning to SpaceX has already surpassed most companies in the S&P 500.

It’s even more expensive than many AI leaders.

What the market is buying now isn’t profits—it’s buying:

Musk
an AI story
Starlink
dreams of Mars

As long as any one of these narratives stalls, the valuation will be repriced.

What big money is really waiting for is inclusion in the index.

If it’s included in major indices in the future, large amounts of ETFs and pension funds will buy passively.

That’s the kind of event that could genuinely change the fate of the stock price.

So in the short term: the market is worrying about lock-up expirations.

In the long run: the market is betting that index funds will step in as buyers.

Investment banks’ consensus calculations put short-term support at $135 (the IPO issue price). In a pessimistic scenario, they see downside into the $140–$135 range.

Wall Street is worried about a hard landing rather than a booming economy.

Cathie Wood is slamming the Fed for their reckless rate hikes, calling it a huge mistake.
Because ARK funds have been severely hit during the Fed's crazy rate hike cycle over the past two years, suffering major losses.

Historically, inflation below 1% often comes with a serious economic recession.

Will Walsh pivot to rescue the market with tax cuts and rate cuts?

Right now, insider funds on Wall Street are quietly accumulating defensive assets,

fearing that the Fed might be forced into panic rate cuts due to an economic collapse.

What’s coming isn’t the prosperity Cathie talks about, but rather a hard landing financial storm similar to 2008.

Take a look at Buffett's moves and positions; this is likely to happen.

Is Bitcoin likely to drop all the way down to $57,000?

1. There's a massive pile of contracts below that are at risk of liquidation, which will drag the price down due to liquidity.

2. The second breach of the rainbow chart's long-term support zone historically leads to continued weakness.

3. The halving cycle pattern indicates that the bear market bottoming process will last until October-November, and institutional large-scale inflows are hiding selling pressure.

Don't rush to catch the bottom in the short term; the downtrend cycle isn't over yet.

In the cluster below the current price movement, the lowest significant cluster is at $47,300, which is one possibility.

Extending further

The rainbow chart is just a retrospective model and shouldn't be used as the sole basis for shorting. It’s a posterior indicator fitted to past market conditions. After breaking down in 2022, the model was directly recalibrated; this current breakdown only signifies weak short-term sentiment and doesn't guarantee a repeat of the previous 77% deep drop. Now, ETF institutional funds will provide a floor, and the drop will be less severe.

Large inflows to exchanges ≠ immediate sell-off; 90% of retail traders will misinterpret this.
BlackRock's entry is for institutional custody accounts, which can fall into three categories: OTC large transactions with margin, internal fund allocation, or gradual reduction of spot holdings. Often, after inflowing, funds are locked for weeks before any action; a single day's inflow does not instantly signal a short. Continuous large inflows over several days are needed to indicate effective selling pressure.

The 826-day halving kill-off pattern is becoming ineffective.
The old cycle primarily relied on selling pressure from retail investors and miners; now, with trillions in ETF funds and corporate hoarding, supply is locked, extending the cycle and slowing the drop. We won't see the previously rapid crashes; instead, we have a prolonged downward grind, so there's no need to rush for the bottom.

The $57,000 liquidation point is a double-edged sword.
If we hit $57,000, it will trigger a chain reaction of long position liquidations, accelerating the drop. But if the shorts run out of liquidity too soon, the major players will use the liquidation to complete the final washout and reverse; just focusing on the liquidation point can lead to missing the bottom.

Why are analysts fixated on the $57,000 mark?

Because this is the lifeline for miners, the temporary shutdown price.

If we break below $57,000, a significant portion of small to medium Bitcoin mining operations will start operating at a loss.

The whales are setting the target at $57,000 to force those higher-cost miners holding onto their Bitcoin to capitulate and sell, completing the first major washout below $60,000.