Ilene Polsky IoQ1

#WhatNextForUSIranConflict 1. Continued “shadow conflict” (most likely) Instead of open war, both sides keep operating indirectly—cyberattacks, proxy militias, targeted strikes, and sanctions. This has been the pattern since events like the killing of Qasem Soleimani. It allows both sides to apply pressure without triggering full-scale war. 2. Diplomatic re-engagement (possible, but fragile) Talks around reviving or replacing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action could resume, especially if economic pressure on Iran increases or political leadership shifts. However, trust is low, and past negotiations have repeatedly stalled. 3. Regional escalation through proxies Iran-backed groups in places like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, or Yemen could clash more directly with US forces or allies. This widens the conflict geographically without direct US–Iran confrontation. 4. Direct military confrontation (least likely, but high impact) An incident—like attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz or strikes on military bases—could spiral into open conflict. Both sides generally try to avoid this because the economic and human costs would be enormous. 5. Internal political changes shaping strategy Leadership decisions in both countries matter a lot. Shifts in US foreign policy or internal dynamics within Iran could either de-escalate tensions or harden positions. Bottom line: The most realistic near-term path is ongoing tension without full war—periodic spikes, then temporary cooling. A major escalation usually requires a trigger event, not just rhetoric.