橙夕-Ethreal

My friends invited me to go travel, and I told them I don’t have money—when in fact the money is just sitting in an exchange. Weekend market action is so boring it’s unbearable: BTC just hangs around 60K, unable to pump up and unable to drop decisively.

But I found something interesting—a new address quietly bought 1,350 BTC, worth over eighty million USD.

Weekends are usually when liquidity is at its worst: institutions aren’t working, and retail either goes out to play or stays on the sidelines. When someone spends eighty million USD to buy BTC at this time, who do you think they are? Most likely, it’s not retail traders operating.

Even more aggressive: SharpLink bought over 30,000 ETH in three days, spending more than sixty million USD. And it’s continuous buying, not a one-time dump. This kind of execution cadence clearly looks like institutional-level accumulation.

Let’s compare today’s sentiment: the UTXO indicator is basically calling it a surrender, and on Polymarket, 63% of people think BTC will drop to $50K. The whole network is in panic—so what are the big funds doing? They’re buying.

This isn’t advice for you to follow in and pile on. Big money has its own position management and time horizon. If retail chases buys, it’s easy to get shaken out during chop. But here’s a fact you should know: at a point where everyone is panicking, the smart money’s choice is to add to positions, not to run.

There isn’t much going on this weekend—use these whales’ moves to pass the time. Remember this line: when the market is most fearful, it’s often when big funds are the most active.

$BTC #鲸鱼 #聪明钱 #周末 #抄底

A close friend asked me what I’ve been doing lately. I said I’ve been watching the charts. She said, “Weren’t you the one who said you wouldn’t trade anymore?” I thought I wasn’t trading either, but seeing this data pulled me right back in.

The Bitcoin UTXO indicator has triggered this cycle’s first capitulation signal in the bear market. Some people say it’s the bottom. Others say it’s the start of the final leg down. I looked at both sides—each has its own reasoning.

Let’s start with the capitulation signal. This UTXO indicator measures the scale of on-chain loss transfer—basically, how many coins that are in profit? no, in loss are still being traded. Historically, whenever this indicator issues a signal, it hasn’t been a perfect bottom-picking point, but the bottom really isn’t far off. It doesn’t tell you to buy immediately—it tells you that panic has reached extreme levels.

At the same time, another piece of news says demand from U.S. institutions is weak, and Bitcoin is still under short-term pressure. Coinbase and Circle have both fallen nearly 70% from their highs, and crypto stocks are dropping even harder than tech stocks. These data are also facts.

So the current situation is this: on-chain sentiment is already at the panic bottom, but liquidity is still contracting. The two signals point in completely opposite directions.

Over the weekend, BTC just hovered around 60K—neither up nor down. If you say it’s building a base, volume isn’t enough, and Vol is only a bit over 2,600. If you say it will keep dropping, that 60K level fell from last week’s high to 58K and then bounced back, and the intent to defend the market is clearly there.

Personally, when signals conflict like this, there’s no need to rush into picking a side. In the past, whenever this kind of contradictory signals appeared, eventually one side would turn first. Either on-chain panic pulls institutions back in to bottom-fish, or liquidity keeps shrinking and drags BTC down to 55K.

I’m choosing to play dead for now. The on-chain signal tells me not to sell at the low point; the institutional data tells me not to rush to buy. Then I’ll just watch—wait for a clear direction before moving.

$BTC #比特币 #底部信号 #投降 #On-chain data

Ladies, it’s the weekend count-in time again

BTC 60051 — up 0.07% in 24 hours, basically unchanged. High 60948, low 59858. That’s a $1,000 range, amplitude under 2%. Volume is only 2912 BTC. The volume drop over the weekend is very obvious.

ETH 1573 — down 0.27%. High 1611, low 1563. ETH is still weaker. When BTC falls, ETH falls with it. When BTC rises, ETH doesn’t really follow.

SOL 70.57 — down 1.66%. Actually a bit weaker than ETH. The previous setup where SOL was stronger than ETH has been broken this week.

Core data for the three coins
BTC: Support 59K, resistance 61K (around 60K)
ETH: Support 1550, resistance 1620 (around 1573)
SOL: Support 68, resistance 73 (around 70.6)

No ETF data over the weekend and the US stock market is closed—so the chart is just sideways. Whoever moves first loses.

A few key observations
First, all the liquidity indicators are Buy. This signal is uncommon. It could be that weekend depth is shallow, or that institutions truly feel it’s at that point.
Second, on Polymarket, the probability of bearish BTC dropping to 50K is 63%. That means retail traders and the derivatives market are extremely bearish.
Third, stablecoin market cap hasn’t expanded. USDT at 186B is basically unmoved, meaning no new money has entered.

That’s the technical analysis—now let’s talk like humans.

At this position, going long or short is uncomfortable. Going long makes you worry about breaking below 58K; going short makes you worry about a bounce back to 62K. The best strategy is to do nothing.

On Monday, watch the US stock market open and the ETF data—those two are the key variables for next week. If Monday’s stock market stabilizes and ETFs resume net inflows, BTC could move toward 62K. If outflows continue, BTC may pull back to 58K or even lower.

I’m currently in cash, waiting for signals. I won’t guess the bottom or bottom-fish. $BTC $ETH $SOL #盘面 #Weekend

Sisters, I’ve watched the weekend drop ranking three times—it really is pretty brutal

The biggest drop is BTW Bitway, down nearly 32%, with a market cap of 145 million. This small-cap liquidity got pulled out over the weekend and it basically collapsed. There’s really nothing much to analyze—this is simply a liquidity kill.

But the second one, SKYAI, is down 31%—I need to talk about this.

SKYAI is an AI narrative coin, with a market cap of 250 million. Today it’s down another 31%, and on top of that it has already fallen a lot previously. Look at the entire AI sector—this week is just miserable beyond words. Earlier, people were trading the “AI + crypto” concept, saying that AI agents would drive a new narrative in the crypto space. What happened instead? When things fall, they fall faster than anyone.

Then LAB is also down 15%. Its market cap is 5.15 billion—when a large-cap coin drops this much, it means sell pressure is very heavy.

APE is down 7%. With BAYC’s coin now, nobody’s playing it anymore either. It’s already down 98% from the peak and it’s still falling.

So what does the drop ranking tell us?

First, liquidity is low over the weekend—don’t touch small-cap coins. If they drop, it starts from 30% or more. You won’t even have time to set your stop-loss.

Second, this round of the AI narrative is really cold now. From SKYAI to other AI coins, the whole front is collapsing. If you want to bottom-fish AI coins, wait—wait until things stabilize before saying anything.

Third, large-cap coins also will fall. LAB down 15% shows that “big market cap” doesn’t automatically mean safety. Coins without fundamental support can drop no matter how much market cap they have.

As for me, I’m just keeping my hands off for now—just watch. No operations over the weekend. We’ll talk again next week $BTC #AI #跌幅榜 #风险

Ladies, after watching too many downward-movers leaderboards this week, let’s bring some positivity.

SYRUP Maple Finance has gained 31% over the past 24 hours, with a market cap of 165 million. It’s not the type of pump that just goes “boom” and disappears. It’s been climbing slowly and steadily.

What is Maple Finance? Simply put, it’s an on-chain lending platform. Institutions can lend and borrow crypto assets on Maple. They previously focused more on large loans, then expanded to Solana, and now it runs across multiple chains.

What’s the key appeal of this project? Real yield. Lending protocols have fee income in both bull and bear markets. Unlike those pure narrative coins, where bull runs rely on hype and in bear markets they can basically go to zero.

I hadn’t paid much attention to this SYRUP coin before, but after looking at the data, I found it interesting. On the Solana chain, there’s a SYRUP/USDC trading pair, and its net inflow ranks 4th on Solana netflow—showing that on-chain users are actively using it.

Also, the DeFi sector has been recovering overall lately. AAVE rebounded more than 10% before, and DYDX also moved. In the restaking space, EIGEN is up 9% today as well.

I think this DeFi move is a smaller-scale bottoming signal—not the kind of “big bull market is starting” moment. But at least it suggests that funds are beginning to take notice of this sector.

Compared with pure memes, DeFi has fundamental support. When it drops a lot, people actually step in to buy the dip—unlike memes, where when they fall, they really just fall.

Of course, invest cautiously. I just think SYRUP is worth adding to a watchlist, not recommending that everyone rush in right now. After all, overall liquidity is still contracting, and any rebound could be sold into again.

But at least on this weekend when everyone is bearish, it’s reassuring to see a DeFi coin steadily gain 31%. $SYRUP #DeFi #基本面 #Solana

Let me tell you a real story

Last week I was watching Polymarket’s BTC probability of dropping to 50,000 rise from 51% to 63%. Every time it climbed by one percentage point, my heart would skip a beat.

So what did I do then? First I cut my position, thinking it would help me avoid risk. But BTC bounced from 58K to 60K—so I sold too early. Then I chased it back in, and the price fell again.

I kept going back and forth like that. I paid quite a lot in fees, and my position cost ended up being higher.

This week I learned my lesson.

On Polymarket, 63% of people think BTC will fall to 50K. But this data actually shows that the market is already extremely pessimistic—so pessimistic that 63% of people believe it will drop. This is exactly how a contrarian indicator works.

All of BlockBeats’ liquidity indicators are saying “Buy.” The overall market is “Buy,” BTC is “Buy,” ETH is “Buy,” and even the USDC/USDT premium is “Buy.”

So so many people are bearish, but the indicators are saying “Buy.” Tell me who’s right.

I think nobody is necessarily right, but the best strategy is: do nothing and wait—wait for the market to show you where it’s going.

When the market is closed over the weekend is when traders really make money, because not losing money is already making money.

I’m going out for a walk now, grab a cup of coffee. I’m too tired this week. We’ll talk again next week—let’s see if BTC can hold 60K. If it holds, that’s a good thing. If it can’t, then we’ll find another way. $BTC #交易心态 #教训 #Weekend

Girls, on the weekend we looked through the meme coin data—one word: division.

WIF is up nearly 8% today. It’s the only one in the meme sector that’s actually worth looking at. The price is back to 0.166, market cap is 166 million. On Solana, WIF’s liquidity has always been one of the most solid.

But the other memes really don’t work.

DOGE is down 1.4%, SHIB down 0.5%, PEPE down 0.2%, BONK down 1.2%, FLOKI down 2.3%.

In the entire meme sector, everything is green except WIF—no, actually everything is red.

That says a lot. The market’s risk appetite is still low. Funds are only willing to touch established memes like WIF. Newer memes have very few followers.

Looking at netflow on the Solana chain: JLP, ONYC, and PUMP are still seeing net inflows. But these are mainly DeFi or utility-related. PUMP counts as a meme, but it’s relatively new.

So what’s going on with this WIF pump? I think it’s just an oversold rebound. WIF fell a lot from its highs. Now the broader market is moving sideways, and people are starting to pick up bargains.

But here’s what I want to say: meme coin玩法 has changed. Before, when the market went sideways, memes would still run wild. Now when the market goes sideways, memes just follow along sideways too—which means there’s really much less capital inside the market.

If you’re still playing meme coins, you must set a stop-loss. In this liquidity environment, a pullback starts at 20%—you can’t afford it.

As for me, I’ll just look and not touch. I’m especially not touching it on the weekend. Let’s talk again next week when liquidity comes back. $WIF #Meme #Solana #Risk warning

Ladies, this week there’s a data point I can’t help but find unbelievable

In the Kobeissi Letter, it says that this year U.S. ETFs have already attracted $1 trillion. At this pace, the total for the year could break $2 trillion—an all-time high

But if you look closely, where did the money go?

Retail investors are withdrawing funds from Gold ETFs and BTC ETFs and pouring them into semiconductor ETFs. From April to now, Gold + BTC ETFs have seen net outflows of $12 billion, while semiconductor ETFs have absorbed $20 billion in the same period

This is classic FOMO. When chip stocks rise, people chase chips. When BTC falls, they cut losses on BTC

But even funnier is that this week, chip stocks also got smashed. Bloomberg reported that a wave of chip stock selloffs dragged U.S. stocks lower this week. Concerns over AI valuations are starting to weigh on the market

So the chips retail investors chased also fell

Meanwhile, institutions are slowly buying BTC ETFs. Even though the pace is slower, they’re still buying. Overall net inflows remain positive

There’s another narrative worth watching: Base’s post-mortem report. On June 25 and 26, there were two block interruptions. The reason was a flaw in the block-builder (sequencer) construction logic—there was no issue with users’ funds. The Base team did a detailed review

This actually matters a lot, because Base is currently one of the largest players in L2 by trading volume. A two-hour chain interruption is unimaginable in Web2, but in Web3 that’s how it grows—learning and stumbling along the way

Base’s transparency in this post-mortem is very high. Worth praising

Back to the money flow: retail chasing chips—institutions buying ETFs—who’s right and who’s wrong will be revealed next week. $BTC #ETF #资金流向 #宏观 #Base

I’m really fed up—watching the market on the weekend feels like going to a grave.

BTC is now 60051, ETH 1573—almost no movement compared to Friday. BTC’s 24-hour range is only a little under 2%, from 59857 to 60947, with barely any room at all. Trading volume has also shrunk to just 2912 BTC. This is not what the weekend should look like.

But the technical indicators are quite interesting.

BlockBeats’ liquidity index: overall the market is Buy. BTC is Buy, ETH is also Buy. The USDC/USDT premium is Buy. The USDT lending rate is also Buy.

A whole bunch of Buy signals are piled up there.

But on Polymarket, 63% of people think BTC will fall to 50k this year, while 67% think it will rise to 70k. Both probabilities exist at the same time—this means the market is extremely split.

I think the significance of these Buy signals should be discounted in the context of weekend volume contraction. Because the deep liquidity pools used by market makers are smaller, the indicators are more likely to be distorted. Still, the direction does have some reference value—it suggests big money doesn’t seem willing to continue selling off at this level.

On the ETH side: 1573 is still stuck in indecision. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is still at a low level. SOL is 70.6—down 1.6% today, slightly weaker.

Weekend trading advice: same as Friday—don’t move. Close the app and go for a walk. BTC’s next week走势 will mainly depend on ETF data and the U.S. stock market opening. If the 60k level holds, next week could move toward 62k. If it doesn’t hold, then it’ll come down to the 58k support level $BTC $ETH #技术分析 #BTC #Weekend strategy

Girls, I flipped through the weekend biggest gainers list for ages and picked the two most worth talking about.

First is SYRUP Maple Finance—its price rose steadily by 31% over 24 hours. It’s not that kind of chart where it spikes for a minute and then dumps. This one is a real, solid climb. SYRUP’s current market cap is about 165 million, and trading volume is also increasing.

What is Maple Finance? It’s for on-chain lending. In the DeFi space, this kind of thing has real users—it’s not an empty coin. And SYRUP recently seems to have some fundamental catalysts. Plus on the Solana chain, SYRUP/USDC net inflows have ranked it 4th on Solana netflow.

Second is EIGEN EigenCloud—up 9%, market cap 177 million. Before the re-staking track (EigenLayer) went almost half a year in decline, it’s now starting to rebound. And look at the DeFi sector this week—several old coins are slowly recovering too. AAVE, DYDX—they’ve both rebounded.

Back to the losers list: SKYAI is down 31% again today. AI narrative coins really do keep trending downward. Coins that trade purely on AI hype, with no fundamentals backing, you really shouldn’t touch.

I think most of the weekend gainers list is fake. Low liquidity means the cost to pump is low. But something like SYRUP, with a real protocol running, is different—it’s worth putting on your watchlist.

EIGEN is also worth keeping an eye on. The re-staking track’s bottoming-out signals have appeared: $SYRUP $EIGEN #DeFi #涨幅榜 #re-staking

Family, I spent last night scrolling through the on-chain data until 3 a.m. The more I looked, the more energized I got.

The White Whale, this bro, is currently holding a long position worth $410 million in ETH and SOL. And just in the recent period alone, he’s already made a profit of $51.6 million. That’s not a small number—it’s $51.6 million, sisters.

And Circle just minted another 250 million USDC on the Solana network. The “smart money” on-chain has also been moving into things like JLP ONYC PUMP in the Solana ecosystem recently.

Solana’s top 10 netflows are all positive—there isn’t a single one with net outflow.

So what does that mean?

It means big capital is still bullish on Solana and ETH, completely opposite from what retail investors are doing right now—everyone’s panicking to death.

What are retail investors doing this week? They’ve been pulling money out of BTC ETFs and gold ETFs and putting it into semiconductor ETFs. The net outflow from gold + BTC ETFs is $12 billion, while semiconductor ETFs absorbed $20 billion.

In plain terms, retail is scared—they think BTC is going to drop—so they’ve gone chasing chips.

But look at what the smart money on-chain is doing: they’re adding positions, profiting, and minting USDC.

My current strategy is: don’t follow anyone. Let them play out the result first. Because right now, whether you go long or short, it’s easy to get hit on both sides.

But I truly have to admire this WhiteWhale bro. Holding a $400 million long position without moving it—his mindset is seriously great. $SOL $ETH #鲸鱼 #聪明钱 #Solana

Girls, I’m really about to lose it. What is this market even doing?

On one side, US ETFs saw $1 trillion pour in this year, and the full year could break $2 trillion—possibly a new all-time high. This is institutions going on a buying frenzy.

On the other side, what are retail investors doing? They’re pulling money out of gold and BTC ETFs and rushing into semiconductor ETFs. Since April this year, gold + BTC ETFs have had net outflows of $12 billion, while semiconductor ETFs pulled in $20 billion during the same period.

What kind of move is that?

On Polymarket, they say the probability of BTC dropping to $50K is already 63%. A drop to $40K is 30%, but the odds of it rising to $70K are also 67%.

They’re saying it’ll go up while also saying it’ll go down—doesn’t that mean you’re basically blocked at both ends?

The ECB is still warning about further rate hikes, and energy prices may feed through again. Chip stocks also plunged this week, and AI valuations are starting to be questioned.

But look at BTC’s liquidity indicators—everything is “Buy.” Even the USDC/USDT premiums are saying “Buy.”

I think, well, just don’t check the charts this weekend. Let’s talk next week. Right now, going long or short is uncomfortable. BTC is stuck around 60K, neither up nor down.

Wait until institutional money and retail money sort out who wins. Right now it’s blocked on both sides.

$BTC #宏观 #机构资金 #Weekend strategy

BTC $60k range-bound over the weekend. Although ETFs saw a net outflow of 14 billion yuan this week, sentiment Buy managed to hold up.

ETH at 1585 is weaker than anyone else. Vitalik’s 7,000 ETH move adds fuel to the fire.

SOL at 72 led the three majors; on-chain capital continues to flow in.

VELVET +75% is the hottest, but Vol/MCap is only 0.09x—highly monopolized. Don’t chase.

AAVE +12% / INJ +12.5% / GRASS +14.5%—DeFi blue chips are truly rebounding.

BEAT flipped from +15% to -10%. That’s the turning point for the DeFi rebound.

M -20% continues to collapse; it’s down 50% over the past week and may not be at the bottom yet.

CBRS +5% after-hours—Serenity gave a call; OpenAI Gpt-5.6; Sol is on Cerebras hardware.

Chinese hedge funds warn of a massive AI-stock bubble. Yang Dong says popular stocks could fall 80%-90%.

Vitalik-related address transferred 7K ETH to a new wallet—most likely heading to a CEX.

Stay calm over the weekend, close the app and rest. See you Monday.

$BTC $AAVE $SOL #复盘 #one-liner

The plot behind today’s DeFi rebound is kind of interesting.

At noon, AAVE jumped 15%, DYDX rose 18%, GRASS gained 17%, and BEAT climbed 15%. The whole DeFi sector really looks like it’s coming back to life. Kraken buying 15% equity in AAVE, and the symbiotic relationship between Coinbase and Morpho—these look like solid fundamentals.

But by evening…

BEAT dropped 10%—it went from the gainers list to the losers list. A 25-point swing in a single day.

That makes me wonder: is this DeFi rebound a true reversal, or just an illusion?

The reasons for calling it a reversal are pretty simple.

AAVE really was acquired by Kraken for 15% equity, valuing it at $385 million. For a compliant exchange to heavily position in a DeFi protocol—that signal is real. And AAVE’s fundamentals in DeFi are among the best: real borrowing demand and steady revenue.

But the case for it being an illusion also holds.

What does BEAT’s price action today tell us? It suggests there’s a set of coins that were only lifted by the broader market rebound—not people actively accumulating. When the market softens a bit, these momentum traders all dump it.

VELVET rose 75%, but its Vol/MCap is only 0.09x.

Is that really a rebound? That’s clearly manipulation. With just a few hundred thousand dollars, you can pump a token with a $350 million market cap by 75%—which means the coin likely has no real liquidity.

So how should we look at it?

My view is two-layered. AAVE, INJ, and GRASS—these definitely have fundamentals that buyers can keep absorbing. But for BEAT, VELVET, and many smaller follower tokens, once the weekend is over, they may very well fade back.

Don’t just rush in because DeFi is up.

Figure out what’s real—and what’s just riding the wave.

$AAVE $BEAT $VELVET #反共识 #Controversial viewpoint

It’s Saturday again—let’s wrap up this week together.

First, let’s talk about BTC.

On Monday it opened at 63K. On Thursday it was dumped down to a low of 58K. On Friday it rebounded to 60K. Today, the weekend close is at 60,500. Over the week it fell by roughly 5%. ETFs saw 5 straight days of net outflows: 6/22 -68M, 6/23 -113M, 6/24 -469M, 6/25 -691M. In total, nearly 14 billion was withdrawn over the week. But sentiment indicators have consistently shown Buy, creating a divergence between liquidity flow and technical signals.

ETH is even worse.

It slid from 1650 down to 1521 before stabilizing. Today it closed at 1585. A Vitalik-associated address transferred 7000 ETH today, which may be headed to the CEX. Funding rates have remained negative. The deeper it falls, the fewer people dare to buy; the fewer people buy, the more it falls.

SOL was the highlight of the week.

It rebounded from a low of 66 to 72. On-chain JLP net inflow of 8.5 million ranked first, and ONYC net inflow of 1.9 million ranked second. Solana’s “Stock Market Chain” narrative is moving forward, and the tokenization of DRAM ETFs has also genuinely brought in new users.

By sector:

DeFi started rebounding on Wednesday. This week AAVE is up 12%, INJ is up 12.5%, and DYDX is up 18%. But today BEAT flipped from +15% to -10%, suggesting this rebound may just be rotation of capital—not a fundamental reversal.

What I’m most concerned about is the AI bubble warning.

Two top China hedge funds—Ningquan and Banxia—released reports today saying AI stocks are a super bubble. Yang Dong said popular A-shares could drop 80%-90%, and he successfully predicted the peak of the bull market back in 2007. Li Bei said the conditions that trigger an AI bubble have already appeared, and that year-end capital expenditures may fall sharply. If AI stocks crash, how much impact will that have on the crypto AI narrative tokens?

That’s it for the weekend—go rest.

Next week to watch: US stock market open on Monday, whether ETF outflows have peaked, and whether BTC can hold 58K.

$BTC $AAVE $SOL #周报 #recap

It’s Saturday again.

BTC is around 60,000 and ETH is around 1585—the whole weekend’s trading has only seen this much movement. But what feels worse than a crash is this kind of “up and down but not really” state.

Because at least with a crash there’s a direction.

You can stop loss, you can add to your position, you can make a decision. But this sideways chop is different. Sideways trading just leaves you unable to do anything—you can only wait. I’ve refreshed the行情 on my phone a hundred times and the price is still the same.

This week has been truly miserable.

BTC dropped from 63K to 58K, bounced back to 60K. An ETF saw a net outflow of 14 billion over the week. Even when Michael Saylor came out and said “Bitcoin is operating fine,” nobody cared. And you know what’s the most hopeless part? Every time you think it’s finally bottomed out, it just smashes it down a little more.

It’s even more painful for anyone who bought ETH.

Vitalik even transferred 7,000 ETH today, possibly to an exchange. ETH’s funding rate is still negative—it feels like everyone is going against ETH. Buying SOL is a bit better—the on-chain data really does look good. But who knows whether Monday’s U.S. stock market meeting will drag everything down again.

My biggest takeaway this week is:

It’s not about what you did wrong. The market just doesn’t have certainty in the first place. The technicals, fundamentals, and on-chain data you think matter are all “younger brothers” compared to the macro environment and sentiment.

So this weekend I won’t do anything.

I’ll turn off the app, eat something good, and we’ll talk again next week.

$BTC $ETH #周末 #心态 #trading psychology

Today’s meme section is really ice and fire in two extremes

First, let’s talk about the cool side

M crashed another 20% today—accelerating from the -4% it was at around midday to -20%. Its market cap went from 1.2 billion down to 940 million. But you know what’s the most terrifying part? M has fallen nearly 50% over the past week, yet its market cap is still 940 million. What does that mean? It means the volume that was pumped earlier was too large and it hasn’t finished getting dumped yet. Don’t buy in—seriously, don’t

BEAT is also a big pit

Midday: +15%. Evening: -10%. A coin that jumps from the gainer’s list to the loser’s list within a single day like this means it’s a pump-and-dump move, not a real rebound. Whoever chases highs gets trapped

But WIF is up 15%

Today, WIF is the confidence support for the meme sector. SOL is up 2.5%, and as the flagship meme of the SOL ecosystem, WIF benefits along with it. Also, WIF’s circulating supply is already relatively clean—there isn’t big unlock pressure. Market cap is 160 million, Vol/MCap 0.45x, and the volume isn’t that outrageous

VELVET is kind of meme too

On the Base chain, VELVET is up 75%, but its Vol/MCap is only 0.09x, which suggests the supply is highly concentrated—this isn’t retail buying. The volatility on a coin like this will be extremely extreme. It’ll be super fun when it pumps, and even better—when it dumps

A few rules for meme行情 over the weekend

First, when liquidity is low, small-cap memes swing more wildly. Second, only the leader (like WIF) can withstand the selling pressure over the weekend. Third, memes that have had a huge breakout often see big players dump them on the weekend

Don’t think the whole meme sector is rising just because WIF is up

Differentiation is the truth

$WIF $M #Meme #风险提示 #周末

I usually can’t be bothered to look at funding rates, but today’s situation is worth mentioning.

The three “big ones” and three different funding-rate directions

BTC’s funding rate is +0.0049%. This number is basically neutral-to-slightly-positive—not high, not low. It suggests that the long positions are a bit heavier, but not to an extreme level. The market’s attitude toward BTC is fairly rational.

SOL’s is +0.0071%, the highest among the three. SOL rose 2.5% today, making it the best performer of the three. The longs really have been adding. But +0.007% isn’t that outrageous either—nothing overheated.

Only ETH is -0.0022%, meaning there are more people betting on shorts than longs.

With these three coins showing three different funding-rate directions, it indicates that there’s absolutely no consensus on where the market will go next.

Now let’s look at ETFs.

In the past week, ETFs have seen consecutive outflows: 6/22 net outflow of 68M, 6/23 net outflow of 113M, 6/24 net outflow of 469M, and 6/25 net outflow of 691M. That’s nearly 14 billion flowing out in a week. Interestingly, though, BTC didn’t plunge along with it. Instead, it held steady around sixty thousand. This suggests there are buy orders stepping in on the exchange—so it’s not that nobody wants it.

Total open interest in the contracts market is also falling.

On the OKX platform, Binance OI dipped slightly from 17.4B to 16.8B, and Hyperliquid fell from 6.0B to 5.8B. When OI is decreasing, it usually means some positions have been closed—both longs and shorts are reducing exposure. This is normal for the weekend.

On Saturday, the derivatives market is generally pretty quiet.

But this kind of clearly divergent funding-rate picture isn’t common. It suggests that everyone is watching and waiting over the weekend, to see the direction once U.S. stocks open on Monday.

$BTC $ETH $SOL #合约 #资金费率

I’m really fed up—why is the gap between ETH and SOL getting bigger and bigger?

Today SOL is up 2.5%, while ETH is up only 0.7%.

SOL has moved from 68 to 72. On-chain today, JLP saw net inflows of 8.5 million, and ONYC saw net inflows of 1.9 million. On-chain funds have always been flowing into SOL—whether it’s memes or DeFi, everything moves on Solana. As for ETH, on-chain it’s either whales selling coins or transfers to CEX.

What’s most worrying is the 7,000 ETH that Vitalik transferred.

On-chain monitoring shows that Vitalik’s associated address today transferred 7,000 ETH to a new wallet, worth $11 million. Looking back at previous records, this kind of move is most likely depositing to a CEX. While V God himself hasn’t said anything, historically, founder-to-CEX transfers have never been a good sign.

ETH’s funding rate is also negative.

BTC’s funding rate is +0.0049%, SOL is +0.0071%, and only ETH is -0.0022%. This suggests that in the derivatives market, there are more people opening short positions on ETH than long positions. This is a persistent pressure.

And the ETH ETF has also had consecutive net outflows.

Over the past week, BTC ETF outflows totaled nearly $14 billion, and ETH hasn’t done much better. Institutions are selling, whales are exiting, and V God is also transferring—so who’s going to take the other side?

Now ETH is at the 1585 level: there’s a resistance at 1595 above it, and support at 1521 below it.

Let’s see if it can hold 1550 over the weekend.

$ETH $SOL #以太坊 #SOL #山寨