Nevermore_doge24

2025 is still considered lucky, hope 2026 can continue to be lucky!

That day, while reviewing my trades, I realized this move had a point that I didn’t handle well. It was on the day of the rate-setting meeting: the forecasts were basically consistent. First, after the waterfall selloff, the market seemed to calm down when he spoke. I was listening to the livestream and felt that his comments were basically a mess and implied further rate hikes. He also made a statement in the square, and I had planned to close half the position. But I considered that my own position wasn’t big, and if I closed it at midnight, people wouldn’t be able to see it. Hahaha. Back when I was a small newbie, I got tricked by a blogger who said it was all risk-free—no worries, no worries. I closed the position at midnight, and when I woke up, I was instantly confused and overwhelmed. Hahahahaha. It was just too funny, so I didn’t do anything. The review is that at that time, during the rebound, I really did need to close part of the position. As for the rest, the issues weren’t that big. The sell-off really did go a bit beyond expectations, but my position size was okay. If I’m losing, then I just accept it!

At this moment, I really miss Master Bao. When every market is falling sharply, the Federal Reserve should consider systemic risk. If we were to bring in old Bao, we’d probably need to convene an interim meeting. Whether there’s risk or not, it would send a message to the market. Maybe that’s Chairman Walsh’s style—(shrugging with both hands)! #美国国债上涨 #预测市场交易量创历史新高

#doge The FOMO back then was loud, almost drowned out my resolve!

#通胀预期 I really don’t get what the market is scared of. Last month’s inflation was just a temporary peak, oil prices have come down, and the job market isn’t showing any crazy growth. The year-on-year inflation rate isn’t even meeting expectations. Are we really going to see the next meeting result in a rate hike just because the market demands it, without even looking at inflation and employment data? A Fed chair shrugging like that, I could do too—it's pretty laughable!
Enough said, I’ll stick with this: a dip is just an opportunity!
Of course, let’s see tomorrow’s PCE; will it take out another batch of long positions? We’ll see!

#Dogecoin‬⁩ right, right, right, can't stop adding to my bags, only us stubborn folks can hold this long, it's hilarious, lol.
I’m not worried, doge is still going to the moon!

I bet everyone has seen my badge now! Keep moving! #伊朗原油降价

#doge @Old Horse, tell me when we can reach the promised land! I'm about to run out of buying power!

#美联储点阵鹰派收益率曲线趋平 The macro landscape is shifting a bit; do you think I can ride this trade to the moon? $BTC

Does #沃什首次FOMC维持利率 look exactly like what I predicted yesterday?
Let's talk about the current outlook: this meeting was indeed pretty hawkish. First, the dot plot is hawkish (half the board members believe in a rate hike by year-end), second, Waller emphasized the importance of data and the market's expectations, while firmly committing to bringing inflation back to 2%. Overall, this brings a hawkish sentiment and expectations for rate hikes. My feeling is that despite high inflation, the job market is solid, and Waller's first press conference was indeed reasonable in a hawkish tone. However, he also stressed the importance of data sources and the establishment of a special task force, which actually leaves room for future policies and can be seen as having greater operability. From this perspective, we can be optimistic about upcoming policies. #半数联储官员支持2026年加息
Everyone might consider the shift from rate cuts to hikes. Will there be a rate hike in September? I still think the probability is very low. The shift has just begun, and with the new administration only three months in, initiating a rate hike is a tough sell. How would Trump explain that? It's a bit funny! Of course, December is looking like a rate hike possibility, which will definitely impact liquidity and expectations, but I remain optimistic about the second half of the year; there’s potential!
Anyway, everyone must remember: opportunities arise from dips, and risks come from rallies.

#美联储利率决议 Good news: this time there's no movement and all voting board members are in agreement, with no obvious divisions or conflicts within the Fed! The bad news is that half of them believe a rate hike is needed by year-end (the market has already priced that in). As expected, Waller didn’t submit his dot plot (we expected that from him). The overall expectation from the dot plot is tightening policy (not great). Let's wait and hear his explanation, then we'll assess concerns about inflation and the job market's stance.

#美联储利率决议即将公布 Been busy catching the World Cup lately, of course just a little gamble for fun, totally forgot to keep an eye on the Fed meeting. So tonight! Is it show time for #沃什首秀 ? Are we going for a big move? Honestly, I'm not too sure.
Let me share my thoughts. There's a prediction that tonight Waller won't submit his SEP dot plot forecast. If he actually does that, we might see a quick dump! The market loves certainty, and such a high level of uncertainty will definitely cause a nosedive first, then we wait for his speech. I think he won't proactively mention tapering; Waller is likely still leaning towards rate cuts or holding steady. This should lead the market to rebound or stabilize, but once the speech is over, the market will still worry about the uncertainty in Waller's policies or the risks of rising inflation and increasing unemployment, which could continue to drive prices down. If that's the case, it's not a true hawkish stance but rather a drop due to uncertainty. Then, my fellow traders, our opportunity to stack up comes! Let’s go all in!
This viewpoint is just for entertainment, just like my bets on the World Cup, it's all about relaxing a bit!
Mid-term bullish, short-term bearish, keeping my positions manageable without adjustments!

There are indeed a lot of real fans, many just lurking and checking out my shares, thanks everyone! $BTC
This position is decent, so I might hold it a bit longer. Trading is all about managing your position. My strategy is to first look at macroeconomic data (long-term plus short-term market expectations), then check the candlestick patterns (structure, wave forms, technical indicators), and finally manage my position. Of course, when it comes to closing a trade, I do the opposite: prioritize position management and then check the candlesticks. Like with this trade, I might take a hit, but if my position is solid, I’m just going to let it ride and add back later. If the position is heavy, I can trim it down a bit.
Anyway, I’m still all in on Doge, doge to the moon!

Let the genius trader think about how to kindly provide everyone with the subscription code, umm～, how about we play an old game? Let's do a floor game, of course no spamming allowed. So here's the deal: follow and leave a comment, I'll add friends at levels 28, 58, and 88, and toss in the subscription code too. Of course, personal trading is for reference only, and I take no responsibility, hehe! #美国战略石油储备创1983年来新低 $BTC

Why can they still close my position directly! That's outrageous!

$BTC It's pumping as expected, and if it keeps mooning, I'll drop some giveaways (hand-signed)!

That's right, everyone who's been buying the doge with me has raked in $DOGE #doge .
Don't look back, dear doge!

#美联储何时降息？ If that's the case, Wosh is definitely a dove, but not cutting rates this year is a pretty bearish signal. Ultimately, we have to see how Wosh performs for the first time; let's keep our eyes peeled!

#世界杯 #predict Feeling lucky today, hit 3 bets, how should I play it tonight? Let me see🤔🤔 thinking! $BTC

Let me break it down for you: 1. Right now, the macro landscape hasn't changed. This month, let's see if there's a major shift; if it turns, we might get a signal this month. Personally, I think the chances of no change are pretty high, but the first move from Powell is always a tough call; 2. The big structure is like a running center with 60k as the lowest point; whether it breaks lower or not isn’t a big deal; 3. There’s a high probability of bottom divergence on the monthly chart. If there’s no divergence, we could drop down to 10k, which is tough, but I'm bullish on a monthly rebound. All in all, I'm eyeing 90k. If the Fed makes significant changes this month, we might need to adjust our outlook again. Short term, I’m thinking we’ll hit 90k, and I’ll be here flexing with you all!
I’m tired, time to catch some Zs!