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The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Is Dead! Bitwise CIO: The Crypto Market Has Entered a Decade-Long Endurance Phase #BTC☀️ The three key forces that once drove Bitcoin’s four-year cycle have significantly weakened. With institutional investors entering the market and regulatory frameworks becoming more robust, the crypto market is moving into a decade-long endurance phase, requiring investors to develop new mental models to navigate future trends. #btc走勢 Over the past few weeks, in meetings with institutional investors, the question I’ve been asked most often is: Does Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still have any relevance?
The so-called four-year cycle refers to the historical pattern in which Bitcoin experienced three years of gains followed by a sharp decline in the fourth year.
This question is critical, because under four-year-cycle logic, next year would be a difficult one for Bitcoin—and for the broader crypto market as a whole. # While I cannot precisely predict the price trajectory of crypto assets next year, I believe it is unwise to blindly assume that the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat itself.
After all, the four-year cycle is not some ironclad law of nature carved into stone by a “crypto god.” It emerged from the interaction of three specific driving forces:
Bitcoin halving events: The mining reward on the Bitcoin blockchain is cut in half roughly every four years.
Interest-rate cycles: The sharp rises in interest rates in 2018 and 2022 both acted as major catalysts for crypto market downturns.
Boom-and-bust market dynamics: Every major crypto crash year—2014, 2018, and 2022—followed an exceptionally strong rally. For example, Bitcoin surged 5,530% in 2013, 1,349% in 2017, and 57% in 2021. During periods of market euphoria, fraud and speculative bubbles tend to proliferate, and when those bubbles burst—such as the regulatory crackdown on ICOs in 2018 or the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022—they directly triggered sharp market sell-offs in the same year.$BTC
Kasang
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All assets: enjoying the traditional Christmas rally Bitcoin: never heard of it
$GOOGLon 隨著人工智慧(AI)算力需求的急遽增長,數據中心的電力消耗已成為全球科技產業亟需解決的宏觀為達成穩定供電與企業淨零排放的雙重目標,新型長時儲能技術正逐漸受到資本市場與基礎設施開發商的青睞。近期,由出身台灣的麻省理工學院(MIT)教授蔣業明所共同創辦的 Form Energy,因其獨特的「鐵空氣電池」技術與Google達成重大供電合作案,備受市場矚目。#算力革命 蔣業明與 Form Energy 的深厚技術背景 Form Energy 的共同創辦人暨首席科學家蔣業明(Yet-Ming Chiang)於1958年出生於台灣,隨後移民美國,並於麻省理工學院取得學士與博士學位。他目前擔任該校材料科學與工程系教授,同時也是美國國家工程院院士。蔣業明在電池技術領域具備高度的學術權威與豐富的創業經驗,過去曾創辦包含24M在內的多家電池與科技企業。他創立Form Energy的核心動機,在於解決再生能源#再生能源 此系統採用安全的水性電解液,有別於傳統鋰電池複雜的化學組成。這種單純使用「鐵、水、空氣」的材料結構,不僅大幅降低了對稀有金屬供應鏈的依賴,更從根本上破解傳統鋰電池侷限的商業優勢 從市場競爭的觀點分析,鐵空氣電池最大的商業優勢在於極低的建置成本與超長的儲能時數。根據公司估算,鐵電池的材料成本僅約為鋰離子電池的十分之一,且能夠提供長達約100小時的持續供電,大幅超越現行主流鋰電池僅能維持4至8小時的物理限制。然而,其技術侷限在於無法在短時間內快速輸出或輸入大量電力。因此,在實際的電網應用場景中,營運商多傾向採取「複合式策略」,利用鋰電池應付短期的突發電力波動,並以鐵空氣電池作為長效的基載儲能支柱,兩者各司其職。#Google Form Energy獲 Google AI 數據中心十億美元訂單
根據最新披露的 2025 年第四季持倉變動,日本科技巨頭 SoftBank Group 在投資組合上出現明顯調整。最受市場關注的是,公司大幅減持 AI 核心概念股 NVIDIA,同時加碼兩檔與加密資產生態相關的公司,顯示創辦人孫正義在 AI 與數位金融之間重新配置風險與成長部位。#孫正義 $BTC 從減持金額來看,軟銀第四季最大的操作集中在科技權值股,Q4 最大減持是賣出逾 59.91 億美元的輝達 (NVIDIA)。其次是賣出 33.85 億美元的 T-Mobile US,以及 1.91 億美元的 Metsera、1.88 億美元的 Lemonade、3,392 萬美元的 Inter & Co。 其中,減碼輝達的規模遠高於其他個股,顯示軟銀在 AI 基礎設施概念股經歷 2025 年大幅上漲後,開始進行獲利了結或風險再平衡。市場普遍解讀,此舉並非看空 AI 長期趨勢,而是反映大型機構在高估值環境下的部位管理策略。#Nvidia's
According to the latest disclosure of portfolio changes for the fourth quarter of 2025, Japanese tech giant SoftBank Group#SoftBank made significant adjustments to its investment holdings. The most notable move was a substantial reduction in its position in AI bellwether NVIDIA, while increasing its exposure to two companies related to the crypto asset ecosystem. This suggests that founder Masayoshi Son is reallocating risk and growth exposure between AI and digital finance.
In terms of the scale of reductions, SoftBank’s largest move in Q4 focused on major technology holdings. The biggest divestment was the sale of more than $5.991 billion worth of NVIDIA shares. This was followed by the sale of $3.385 billion in T-Mobile US, $191 million in Metsera, $188 million in Lemonade, and $33.92 million in Inter & Co. Among these, the reduction in NVIDIA was significantly larger than any other position, indicating that after the sharp rally in AI infrastructure-related stocks in 2025, SoftBank began taking profits or rebalancing risk. The market generally interprets this move not as a bearish signal on the long-term AI trend, but rather as a reflection of large institutional portfolio management strategies in a high-valuation environment.#AI