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The Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle Is Dead! Bitwise CIO: The Crypto Market Has Entered a Decade-Long Endurance Phase
#BTC☀️
The three key forces that once drove Bitcoin’s four-year cycle have significantly weakened. With institutional investors entering the market and regulatory frameworks becoming more robust, the crypto market is moving into a decade-long endurance phase, requiring investors to develop new mental models to navigate future trends.
#btc走勢
Over the past few weeks, in meetings with institutional investors, the question I’ve been asked most often is: Does Bitcoin’s four-year cycle still have any relevance?

The so-called four-year cycle refers to the historical pattern in which Bitcoin experienced three years of gains followed by a sharp decline in the fourth year.

This question is critical, because under four-year-cycle logic, next year would be a difficult one for Bitcoin—and for the broader crypto market as a whole.
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While I cannot precisely predict the price trajectory of crypto assets next year, I believe it is unwise to blindly assume that the four-year cycle will mechanically repeat itself.

After all, the four-year cycle is not some ironclad law of nature carved into stone by a “crypto god.” It emerged from the interaction of three specific driving forces:

Bitcoin halving events: The mining reward on the Bitcoin blockchain is cut in half roughly every four years.

Interest-rate cycles: The sharp rises in interest rates in 2018 and 2022 both acted as major catalysts for crypto market downturns.

Boom-and-bust market dynamics: Every major crypto crash year—2014, 2018, and 2022—followed an exceptionally strong rally. For example, Bitcoin surged 5,530% in 2013, 1,349% in 2017, and 57% in 2021. During periods of market euphoria, fraud and speculative bubbles tend to proliferate, and when those bubbles burst—such as the regulatory crackdown on ICOs in 2018 or the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022—they directly triggered sharp market sell-offs in the same year.$BTC

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