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Bitcoin has staged a sharp recovery from five-week lows after President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that a peace agreement with Iran has been largely negotiated — with the deal including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil chokepoint whose closure has been one of the primary drivers of elevated energy prices and crypto market weakness throughout the three-month conflict.
Crypto markets recovered approximately $75 billion in total capitalization following the announcement, with Bitcoin bouncing from a Saturday low of $74,250 on Coinbase to tap the 50-day exponential moving average at $77,000 in early Sunday trading before settling back to around $76,800 at the time of writing.
What Trump announced
Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday afternoon that an agreement has been "largely negotiated" among the United States, Iran, and a broad coalition of Middle Eastern nations including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain.
"An agreement has been largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other countries, as listed," Trump wrote. "Final aspects and details of the deal are currently being discussed and will be announced shortly. In addition to many other elements of the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will be opened."
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking during a visit to India on Saturday, reiterated the core US demands that form the basis of the deal. "Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. The straits need to be open without tolls. They need to turn over their enriched uranium," Rubio said.
Oil pulls back but remains elevated
Oil markets responded immediately to the de-escalation signal. WTI crude dropped to $96 per barrel and Brent fell to $103 — meaningful declines from the $108 to $112 levels seen earlier in the week. However, both benchmarks remain approximately 55% above their pre-conflict levels from late February, reflecting how much geopolitical risk premium has been built into energy prices over the three months of conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz's closure and the uncertainty surrounding it has been one of the primary inflation inputs pressuring the Federal Reserve into a hawkish posture throughout May. Fundstrat's Tom Lee explicitly identified rising oil prices as the largest headwind for Ether and a key drag on the broader crypto market. A sustained reopening of the Strait — if the deal finalizes — would remove that pressure and potentially reverse the inflation re-acceleration narrative that has driven rate hike odds above 70% for year-end.
Context: three months of conflict and its market toll
The conflict began on February 28 when a US airstrike killed Iran's Supreme Leader, triggering a sequence of events that sent oil surging 55%, pushed US 10-year Treasury yields above 4.5%, flipped Federal Reserve rate expectations from cuts to hikes, and contributed to Bitcoin falling 39% from its October all-time high of $126,080.
Despite that backdrop, Bitcoin has actually outperformed the S&P 500 and gold since the conflict began — rising approximately 29% from the February lows near $60,000 to current levels around $76,800, even after the recent pullback from the May high of $83,000.
The ceasefire negotiations have been fragile throughout, with multiple failed attempts since early April. Saturday's announcement from Trump represents the most concrete progress toward a formal agreement yet — though the language of "largely negotiated" and "subject to finalization" signals the deal is not yet complete.
What a finalized deal could mean for crypto
A confirmed and durable Iran peace agreement would remove the single largest geopolitical risk premium embedded in global markets and potentially trigger a significant repricing across risk assets. Lower oil would reduce inflation pressure, ease the case for Fed rate hikes, compress Treasury yields, and restore the risk-on conditions that drove Bitcoin's rally from $60,000 to $83,000 between February and early May.
The ARMA strategic Bitcoin reserve bill introduced in Congress on Friday, combined with the CLARITY Act advancing through the Senate, and a potential Iran deal resolution could create the legislative and geopolitical backdrop for a renewed institutional inflow cycle into Bitcoin ETFs — reversing the $1.26 billion in six-day outflows that preceded Saturday's announcement.
For now, the $77,000 level — Bitcoin's approximate opening price for May — remains the key short-term level to reclaim and hold. A confirmed peace deal and sustained oil price decline could provide the catalyst needed to close the month above that level and preserve the three-consecutive-months-in-the-green streak that Tom Lee identified as a bull market confirmation signal.

Saudi Arabia's Al Arabiya TV reported on May 24 that the next round of negotiations between the United States and Iran is tentatively scheduled for June 5, citing unnamed sources familiar with the discussions.
The reported date follows President Trump's Truth Social announcement on Saturday that a peace agreement has been "largely negotiated" among the US, Iran, and a coalition of Middle Eastern nations including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain — with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz included as a key element of any final deal.
A confirmed June 5 negotiating session would provide markets with a concrete timeline for the next phase of de-escalation — a development that has already begun moving oil prices lower, with WTI dropping to $96 and Brent falling to $103 from the $108 to $112 levels seen earlier this week.
For Bitcoin and crypto markets, the June 5 date is a key watch point. The Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption have been identified by multiple analysts including Fundstrat's Tom Lee as the single largest macro headwind for risk assets in 2026 — driving oil's 55% surge since February, re-accelerating inflation, and pushing Federal Reserve rate hike odds above 68% for year-end. A credible path to conflict resolution and Strait reopening could meaningfully reverse each of those pressures simultaneously.