dont fellow me
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dont fellow me
TELLING YOU TRUTH OF CRYPTO MARKET
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$BTC Ugh this isn’t good
I hate to say it but I think my $42K -$48K $BTC Bitcoin call is too high
Unfortunately I think we go well below $BTC 30K
Bitcoin is going to get very very ugly
Same with $Eth
I wish everyone good luck
People still have hope and that’s the problem - the real capitulation hasn’t happened yet
All I’m saying is be prepared for some really big drops over the next 6 months
I hate to say it but I think my $42K -$48K $BTC Bitcoin call is too high
Unfortunately I think we go well below $BTC 30K
Bitcoin is going to get very very ugly
Same with $Eth
I wish everyone good luck
People still have hope and that’s the problem - the real capitulation hasn’t happened yet
All I’m saying is be prepared for some really big drops over the next 6 months
$BTTC never goto 1$.. from 2024 i saw same shit from paid members that @Bttc goto 1$ never happen
How low can $BTC go on this leg down?
My Target is $BTC 49-53k
That's where we could stop and consolidate for a month or two before the final capitulation 📉🩸
1st Leg Down: -36% (October-November)
2nd Leg Down: -38% (January-February)
So the 3rd Leg Down (May-June) could be the same -36% (to match the first one) or it could be 2% deeper than the 2nd one, just as the 2nd Leg Down was 2% deeper than the 1st one. That would be -40%
#USCPISurgesToThreeYearHighOf4.2%
#USMayCoreInflationBelowForecast
My Target is $BTC 49-53k
That's where we could stop and consolidate for a month or two before the final capitulation 📉🩸
1st Leg Down: -36% (October-November)
2nd Leg Down: -38% (January-February)
So the 3rd Leg Down (May-June) could be the same -36% (to match the first one) or it could be 2% deeper than the 2nd one, just as the 2nd Leg Down was 2% deeper than the 1st one. That would be -40%
#USCPISurgesToThreeYearHighOf4.2%
#USMayCoreInflationBelowForecast
$BTC going More Down because japan will hike intrest rate … inflation is too high in america no jobs No invesment in $BTC . Everyone Invest in Oil and in War invest in Gold…
#USMayCoreInflationBelowForecast
#USCPISurgesToThreeYearHighOf4.2%
#USMayCoreInflationBelowForecast
#USCPISurgesToThreeYearHighOf4.2%
$BTC A lot of people are asking how I landed on $42K to $47K as my target for this cycle’s $BTC low and thought I’d share it publicly
Bitcoin has always went below its average buy price (Realized Price - Market Price) / Realized Price) each bear market
Here’s the data from previous cycles:
- 2011 to 2012 cycle: dropped 61% below the average buy price
- 2014 to 2015 cycle: dropped 45% below
- 2018 to 2019 cycle: dropped 30% below
- 2022: dropped around 24–30% below
As you can see, from cycle-to-cycle the drop is lower and lower
If you assume the following drops from average buy price this cycle, you will see the following:
- 10% drop = $47.4K
- 15% drop = $44.8K
- 20% drop = $42.1K
- 25% drop = $39.5K
- 30% drop = $36.9K
Assuming it only goes 10% to 20% below is how I got my figures
But here’s the thing, people have experienced a few cycles and now understand more how Bitcoin has historically behaved so this all may get front runned
Also since Bitcoin became significantly more institutional - it’s been trading along the stock market on red days so if you also think the stock market will correct until the midterm elections like it historically has, then we may see the scenario above play out (at least getting to the realized buy price)
Buying here at $60K is also not a bad idea to start a DCA as a hedge
I’m personally starting a DCA here of 2% of my capital per week and expecting we range in the $60K’s for 16-20 weeks before the next move up or down
GLHF remember the goal is to get close to the bottom not try and time it exactly
Last point - I don’t think “the low” happens in Q4, most likely from June to September (end of Q2 or Q3)
✌️
Bitcoin has always went below its average buy price (Realized Price - Market Price) / Realized Price) each bear market
Here’s the data from previous cycles:
- 2011 to 2012 cycle: dropped 61% below the average buy price
- 2014 to 2015 cycle: dropped 45% below
- 2018 to 2019 cycle: dropped 30% below
- 2022: dropped around 24–30% below
As you can see, from cycle-to-cycle the drop is lower and lower
If you assume the following drops from average buy price this cycle, you will see the following:
- 10% drop = $47.4K
- 15% drop = $44.8K
- 20% drop = $42.1K
- 25% drop = $39.5K
- 30% drop = $36.9K
Assuming it only goes 10% to 20% below is how I got my figures
But here’s the thing, people have experienced a few cycles and now understand more how Bitcoin has historically behaved so this all may get front runned
Also since Bitcoin became significantly more institutional - it’s been trading along the stock market on red days so if you also think the stock market will correct until the midterm elections like it historically has, then we may see the scenario above play out (at least getting to the realized buy price)
Buying here at $60K is also not a bad idea to start a DCA as a hedge
I’m personally starting a DCA here of 2% of my capital per week and expecting we range in the $60K’s for 16-20 weeks before the next move up or down
GLHF remember the goal is to get close to the bottom not try and time it exactly
Last point - I don’t think “the low” happens in Q4, most likely from June to September (end of Q2 or Q3)
✌️
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