THIS BITCOIN RALLY LOOKS MORE LIKE A BULL TRAP THAN A NEW BULL MARKET.
BTC is up for 5 days this year and has added nearly $100B to the market cap.
Many now believe $81k was the absolute bottom, but the data doesn’t support that.
Let me tell you why.
In a real uptrend, Bitcoin and Bitcoin dominance rally first.
This time, altcoins are leading, and BTC dominance is falling.
That’s a typical relief rally, not the beginning of a fresh cycle.
And the whale behavior confirms it.
Large holders from 100-1,000 BTC wallets are still net sellers.
The same cohort was accumulating during the Q3 2024 and Q1 2025 bottoms.
Along with this, Bitcoin apparent demand (net BTC accumulation by active holders) is still in a downtrend.
After every cycle top, this metric falls.
Bitcoin often rallies after big drops, but those rallies have never broken the previous all-time high.
Technically, this has happened before.
After the 2021 top, BTC reclaimed the 50W EMA and then immediately dropped below it.
That doesn't mean there's no upside here for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin can still rally toward $102K-$104K near the 200D SMA, just like the previous cycle.
But after that, a fresh downtrend will start.
And for those talking about macro data, here's the most important one.
The ISM indicator is at a 14-month low and is currently in a strong downtrend.
Every major rally has happened when ISM > 50, and this could take months in 2026.
My guess is that ISM expansion, a new Fed chair, etc. will all happen in H2 2026, which will coincide with the 4-year cycle bottom. #BTC #bitcoin #ENA #ET #ETH $BTC $BNB $YGG
Most beginners lose money in crypto, because they misunderstand one simple metric: market cap.
Price alone means nothing. A $0.01 token can be more expensive than a $1,000 one.
Market cap = price × circulating supply. It shows the real size of a crypto asset. Low price ≠ undervalued. High price ≠ overvalued. Market cap puts everything on the same scale.
If you ignore market cap,you’re not investing — you’re guessing.
OPBNB MAINNET COMPLETES FOURIER HARD FORK, BLOCK TIME REDUCED TO 250MS
According to #bnb Chain, #opbnb completed the Fourier mainnet hard fork upgrade at 11:00 (UTC+8) on January 7, 2026. The core change includes the merge of PR #305, reducing the block production interval from 500 milliseconds to 250 milliseconds, significantly improving transaction throughput and confirmation speed.
CZ @cz_binance encouraged developers to continue building and further advance the BNB ecosystem. #Bianace #BTC #BTCVSGOLD $BNB $BTC $FIL
TRUMP: VENEZUELA TO DELIVER 30–50 MILLION BARRELS OF OIL TO THE U.S.
U.S. President Donald Trump @realDonaldTrump said in a social media post that Venezuela’s interim administration will transfer approximately 30–50 million barrels of sanctioned, high-quality crude oil to the United States. The oil will be sold at market prices, with proceeds directly controlled by Trump and used to “benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States.” He added that he has instructed Energy Secretary Wright to execute the plan immediately. The oil will be shipped by tankers and delivered directly to U.S. ports. Based on Tuesday’s WTI futures closing price, the oil is valued at roughly $1.71 billion to $2.86 billion.
According to ABC News, sources said the Trump administration has informed Venezuela’s interim president, Rodríguez, that further approval for oil production will be contingent on meeting White House demands. These reportedly include exclusive cooperation with the U.S. in oil production and prioritizing the U.S. when selling heavy crude. #TRUMP #Trump's #TrumpNFT #BTC #BTCVSGOLD $BTC $XO $M
Japan 10y UP Japan 20y UP Japan 30y UP Japan 40y UP
Nobody is talking about this, but they should.
If you have money invested, you need to pay attention to this. Trust me.
I’ve lived through enough cycles to know how this ends.
Here is the truth:
For 20+ years, Japan was the world's ATM.
They kept rates at 0% (or negative), so investors borrowed Yen for cheap to buy US stocks, crypto, and real estate.
This is what we call the carry trade.
When JGB yields shoot up, like the 10Y crossing 2.1%, the money that used to be free isn’t free anymore.
This is where the chain reaction starts:
1. REPATRIATION
Japanese institutions are the biggest foreign holders of US debt.
If they can finally get 3% risk-free at home (see the 30Y/40Y in the pic), they stop buying US Treasuries and bring their cash back to Tokyo.
2. THE UNWIND
We saw a preview of this in August 2024. When the Yen strengthens and yields rise, leveraged traders get margin called.
They have to sell their winning assets (US stocks, Gold, etc.) to pay back their Yen loans.
Rising JGB yields are effectively a global liquidity withdrawal.
It acts like a rate hike for the rest of the world, even if the Fed does nothing.
Risk assets feel this first, long before central banks admit conditions have deteriorated.
Watch the 10Y closely… if it moves too fast, things break.
Keep in mind, I’ve called every major top and bottom for over 10 YEARS.
When I make my next move, I’ll share it here publicly on my account for everyone to see.
If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it. Btw, I’ve got a free investor guide I don’t normally share. Comment if you want it. #Japan #yang #coin #trade #news $JST $YNE $YFI
Rate cuts are here, but #Liquidity isn’t. Real rates remain high, banks won’t lend, and massive U.S. Treasury issuance is draining liquidity faster than rate cuts release it. This is a defensive easing cycle.
Institutions aren’t chasing risk—they’re hoarding cash and rotating into gold. #Bitcoin, still treated as a high-beta liquidity asset, gets sold first when stress rises.
#Gold is front-running currency debasement. Bitcoin is waiting for the liquidity gate actually to open. #BTC #XAI #Z #altcoins #Yazdan $BTC $BNB $OG
TELEGRAM RUNS WITH FEWER THAN 100 FULL-TIME EMPLOYEES AS IPO PLANS STALL AMID FRENCH LAWSUIT
According to the Financial Times, Telegram currently employs fewer than 100 full-time staff. Despite reaching 1 billion users, the company continues to operate with an extremely lean organizational structure.
In the first half of 2025, Telegram generated $870 million in revenue, up more than 65% year-on-year. Nearly one-third of this total (around $300 million) came from “exclusive agreements” related to Toncoin. Advertising revenue reached $125 million, while paid subscriptions generated $223 million, up 88% year-on-year.
Although operating profit was close to $400 million, Telegram reported a net loss of $222 million due to the depreciation of Toncoin. The company is targeting $2 billion in revenue for 2025, while its IPO plans have been temporarily delayed due to ongoing litigation in France.