DA-Niu

Many friends compare the current BTC trend to the Wyckoff model, and also quote the old saying “five are poor, six are absolute, seven turns things around,” fully expecting a big rally in July.

But I don’t agree with simply comparing historical charts and using old proverbs to predict market moves. That kind of analysis—like trying to “measure a river by the marks on a boat” or force-fitting templates—is too one-sided. To judge BTC’s likely path ahead, you still need to factor in real-time on-chain data, fund inflows and outflows, and the combined signals from long/short order book volume and momentum. You can’t reach a conclusion based on only one chart or a single cliché.

Based on the signals in the current market, my personal view is very clear: in July, the Bitcoin outlook is still difficult to be optimistic about.

This week’s market action has left people mentally and physically exhausted, with three key developments clustering and landing all at once.
First, let’s talk about the geo-political situation between the US and Iran. Frictions on both sides have continued to tug and pull. The good news is that peace talks are still advancing normally, and some shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz have resumed. Although capacity hasn’t returned to pre-conflict levels, this is still a tangible easing. As a result, WTI crude has fallen to $70. It’s only $5 away from the pre-war level of $65. With oil prices no longer rising persistently, it can ease the pressure of crude oil pushing inflation.

The second development is the core PCE inflation data released this week. The rate of inflation increase matches market expectations. Combined with a cooling of the Middle East situation, market expectations for further rate hikes by the Fed have dropped significantly.

Third is Micron’s earnings report. The results are very impressive. However, after the report was released, the AI and technology sectors collectively weakened, and capital rotation was明显. I’m currently sorting through the underlying logic, and tomorrow morning I’ll post a separate tweet to break it down in detail.

Now back to the BTC chart. I’ve mentioned repeatedly that the native capital’s ability to absorb at the $60k level has been strong. Even though the market has dipped below $60k multiple times, it still manages to consolidate within this range—this further confirms the point. Traditional capital associated with spot ETFs has been fleeing in panic, but local native players have continued accumulating coins at low levels.

This week, most of my time has been spent organizing some basic knowledge related to MSTR and its preferred shares. This company has been deeply tied to BTC’s price movement, with them constraining each other. To be frank, if MSTR’s reserve accumulation strategy for BTC cannot be sustained, it will be difficult for other companies to follow through with plans to build BTC reserve strategies. Next week, I’ll focus on tracking on-chain BTC data and institutional holdings.

Disclaimer: This is only my personal market recap and does not constitute any investment advice.

There are not many remaining trading days this month. My longtime friends who have followed me closely all know this very well. During this period, my overall trading approach has consistently been centered on following the trend to go short.

In the market, there are occasionally short-term rebound opportunities. Even if I take a low-position bet on long entries, I will still strictly adhere to a quick in-and-out strategy—never holding for the long run. I do not rely on luck to “bag-hold” through drawdowns.

There are no ambiguous, back-and-forth judgments, and I also do not blindly chase price hoping for a reversal fantasy. Every part of my trading plan is reflected in live trading. This June’s complete profit-and-loss calendar for the contract is the most straightforward, most genuine verification of my trading pace and rhythm during this time.

Hype is definitely a key target worth staking out for the next bull market; it’s just that the timing isn’t quite right yet. It would be most suitable to start building a position gradually in batches during the first quarter next year.

Twitter is full of people arguing whether MicroStrategy will blow up. My take: it won’t directly blow up, but it will worsen the market’s death spiral and push Bitcoin to accelerate its plunge into the depths.

The probability of Bitcoin dropping to 45,000—I think it’s at least 90%! Pull up the weekly chart and take a close look; it’ll be obvious at a glance. The downside room for further decline at this stage hasn’t even finished playing out.
Earlier, a bunch of bloggers were saying that 60,000 was an unbreakable “iron bottom,” and they even urged retail investors to buy the dip around 60,000 to stock up. Now, looking back, you really should reflect. The market has already effectively broken below the 60,000 level, and right now it’s steadily moving closer to 55,000. Once the daily chart firmly breaks below 58,000, it will directly trigger a chain reaction liquidation of long positions worth $1.6 billion. And then the speed of the decline will only be faster.

Lock in the short bias on the high end early. The market’s movement follows expectations throughout—hold patiently to reap your own gains.

Trading is never about making frequent moves. Find the market conditions that fit your system, wait patiently, and let the market validate your profit and loss.

Leverage is being unwound from BTC.
BTC is currently holding in the 65.8K range, but the data is clear: spot CVD is weak, OI is declining, and the Coinbase premium remains negative. While the price is ranging, leverage is being cleared. Until BTC firmly holds above 66.2K, I view this area as liquidity compression, rather than a safe accumulation zone.

$ Lobster, can we replicate that sustained pump from #BinanceLife?

If you take a close look, you'll notice that both whales have nearly identical strategies for controlling the liquidity and executing their moves.

It bounced a bit, and the calls for a bull market are popping up again. This market never lacks buyers eager to catch the falling knife. Bitcoin hasn’t hit the bottom yet. My take is that the real bottom will likely come between late Q3 and early Q4, with a range of 45k to 55k. The logic isn’t complicated. Institutions are reducing their positions to hedge, and the buying pressure has genuinely dried up; it’s not just talk. Funds are flowing towards AI, and the pool of risk assets is already tight, which has been further drained. Once liquidity tightens, projects that rely on high leverage will see their pricing get crushed, and we won’t see any upward momentum in the short term. Don’t be fooled by a single bullish candlestick; bottoms are forged, not bounced.

With the US-Iran ceasefire agreement finalized and set to be officially signed on the 19th, Bitcoin has seen a short-term boost in sentiment, currently bouncing back below 66,000. However, this news-driven rally has pretty much run its course, and there's extremely limited upside potential from here.
Here’s a crucial reminder: absolutely do not chase highs or blindly go long right now; the risk-reward ratio for chasing longs is already terrible and not worth the gamble.
From the order book, you can clearly see key signals—there's a continuous buildup of sell orders at the current price level, with large sell walls getting increasingly substantial. Based on years of charting experience, this concentration of big shorts at high levels is the clearest signal of a market top; a decline is just a matter of time. The short-term bounce has exhausted all the good news, and moving forward, we should still expect to see some choppy pullbacks.

Recently, Musk's personal net worth has been climbing, hitting $1.11 trillion. It's worth noting that the entire Bitcoin market cap is around $1.31 trillion right now. If the price of Bitcoin takes a dip, Musk's wealth could easily surpass the total market cap of Bitcoin. Many are joking that with his current fortune, he could easily start a few more families and raise several more kids without a hitch; otherwise, with such massive wealth, it's tough to spend it all in one lifetime.

ETH has been on a continuous downtrend lately, with the price pulling back from $1690 to $1640. Both the daily and four-hour candles are maintaining a bearish structure.
During this period of low market sentiment, there’s been a significant influx of contrary capital on-chain: BitMine recently increased their holdings by 100,000 ETH, valued at approximately $163 million. This institution aims to hold 5% of the circulating ETH supply and is currently still adding to their position.
On the technical side: the daily MACD shows continued weakness, with the moving averages in a bearish arrangement, creating noticeable pressure on the price. The four-hour chart has faced multiple rejections at the $1663–$1675 range, with the MACD's downward momentum slowing but not forming a bullish crossover. The RSI is sitting at 42, indicating a weak consolidation. Notably, the $1663 level, compounded with moving average resistance, is a crucial short-term watershed.
Resistance levels: $1663, $1675; Support levels: $1640, $1600.
If we can break above $1663 with volume, we may see a short-term recovery; however, if we remain under pressure, the price is likely to test the $1600 support again.

Yesterday's setup is still holding. Bitcoin's current rebound lacks volume, indicating a false rally; the market is weakening again, and there's no significant inflow of outside capital.
After a deep dive in the second half of the year, we will welcome new prime setup opportunities, akin to the historical lows at the end of 2022.
In the short term, the chart will oscillate between 60000 and 64000, and the real dip isn't here yet. After the consolidation, the likelihood of continued downside and hitting new local lows is greater.
The core support level is seen at 60000-60700; if this range is effectively lost, the rebound structure will be completely wrecked, and the market will revert to a downtrend.

Elon Musk showed up at a top-tier diplomatic event with his kids, and no one questioned or criticized him. At the core of it, his immense strength and industry weight left others with no room to chime in or comment.
When a person's value and influence reach a certain level, the established rules of society tend to bend for them, even adapting to suit their presence. What might be seen as out of line for the average Joe, in the case of a powerhouse, turns into a laid-back, authentic vibe.
This is how the world works; the tolerance for top-tier players is always way greater than for the ordinary folks. Strength is the ultimate confidence that breaks down biases and allows one to act with ease.

The overall trend on the weekly chart is leaning weak, with recent upward movements being merely a technical weak correction. Since entering the adjustment phase on February 6, the market has been in a consolidation range for nearly a hundred days, long-term trapped in a weak oscillation environment, with insufficient momentum to break above key resistance.

The core dual pressure on the chart is concentrated around the long-term moving averages and the upper range of the daily trend channel. The previous rebound peaked around 81900 before facing resistance and falling back, failing to establish an effective breakout. The overall movement shows a descending rhythm with lower highs and lower lows, currently in a high-level consolidation pattern.
In terms of market sentiment, bearish sentiment is rising, but prices have not yet made new lows for the stage. Over the past two weeks, prices have slightly increased, repeatedly testing overhead resistance; this is merely a weak bounce combined with range oscillation, not a signal for a trend reversal.
In the mid to long-term, the overall structure is primarily a weak sideways pattern, maintaining a bearish outlook for mid-range operations, patiently waiting for confirmation of a directional breakout. For short-term strategies, pay close attention to the 82000 resistance level; before successfully breaking and holding above it, prioritize a bearish approach based on this resistance, waiting for the market to revert to a downward rhythm and test the previous low range again.

You wouldn't dare kick off a story like this: the dad of the world's richest and the uncle who’s the most powerful president.