happy travels

My weekly look at Bitcoin, unfortunately only today due to illness... I currently see no clear entry signal — I'm watching and trading BTC short-term only with significantly reduced positions. My long-term holdings remain unchanged.

1. WHAT I SEE IN THE CHART

For the first time since October 2025, Bitcoin closed last week above an important line (March 2024 high — at around $73,835) that was lost earlier this year. This week the price is falling back and now testing it from above. This is where it will show whether the comeback holds.

Three things make me cautious: First, the green weekly candles came with strikingly low trading volume. Real upward moves are normally carried by strong volume. Second, for about 47 days now, sellers have been continuously paying buyers in the futures market — one of the longest such phases ever. When the price then rises, it can be because sellers are forced to close their unprofitable positions, not because new buyers are stepping in. Third, the medium-term weekly average (EMA150, blue in the chart) runs exactly through the zone the price is currently testing. If it holds, that's an argument for a further rise. If it breaks, support is missing and we could at least continue moving sideways within the range.

2. WHAT SUPPORTS BITCOIN

Over the past four weeks, US Bitcoin funds saw inflows of around $2.4 billion — significantly more than miners could produce. BlackRock's fund holds over 800,000 Bitcoin, nearly 4 percent of all coins ever mined. According to VanEck, long-term holders have started buying again after a long selling phase. Strategy bought another 34,000+ Bitcoin on April 20.

3. WHAT WEIGHS ON BITCOIN

The Iran war continues, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked. OPEC is in its toughest phase in years — the UAE just announced its withdrawal. Brent crude is 44 percent above pre-war levels. US inflation at 3.3 percent — the highest since May 2024. The IMF and ECB are openly warning of stagflation: high inflation and weak growth at the same time. Today the third meeting of the US Federal Reserve this year begins — I'm curious...

In such an environment, Bitcoin remains for me primarily a risky asset. I view the often-quoted "Bitcoin protects against inflation" narrative critically — in real crises over the past few years, Bitcoin has fallen first along with stocks, not risen like gold. Although this was different in 2026, but for other reasons: Bitcoin has shown itself to be more resilient in this cycle than in earlier crises — probably because of the ETF structures and institutional buyers, and gold was sold off harder in March instead of rising. Somehow too much is changing at the same time right now: lots of confidence on the surface of the markets, lots of uncertainty when you look closely. That makes me more cautious and more skeptical.

4. THREE POSSIBLE PATHS

A) Sideways phase — currently the most likely one for me. Bitcoin oscillates between roughly $67,000 and $80,000 until a clear trigger forces direction. (Variation of A: BTC slowly climbs into the resistance zone between $94,000–$100,000, then corrects sharply once more.)

B) Move to the upside. The important support holds, fund inflows prevail. But a real trend change only begins much higher — at $90,000 to $100,000, where the major downtrend line runs.

C) Further down, in three staged zones: First catch zone at around $67,000–$68,000 — that's where the long-term weekly average (EMA200, orange in the chart) and the lower edge of the range sit. If that breaks too, the next zone would be $53,000–$57,000 — a typical correction mark. Real bear-market scenario: only if that breaks as well do I see the $40,000 mark as a target. This round number tends to act as a magnet — many wait there with buy orders ("just don't miss the bottom"). That's exactly why the market will test it, possibly briefly undershoot it.

Which scenario plays out probably depends less on the chart and traders than on the macro picture — Fed, Iran, inflation. Large institutional players now move the market significantly more than they used to.

5. WHAT I'M DOING

My long-term Bitcoin holdings and DCA savings plan remain unchanged — that's for wealth building, not for trading. For my short-term trades, I'm currently moving with significantly smaller positions and very cautiously. My rule set is giving no clean entry signal, and in sideways phases with an unclear big-picture environment, the risk-reward ratio for my timeframes is too unfavorable.

I'm waiting for one of three resolutions: stable defense of the current zone with better volume, or a clear break to the downside, or clarity on the macro picture. Patience costs little right now. Haste, on the other hand, costs a lot.

DISCLOSURE
Private individual / private trader
Own positions: Bitcoin as long-term holding + DCA (unchanged) and currently sharply reduced short-term trading positions.

This is my personal market update — no investment advice, no call to action.

Sources: TradingView, SoSoValue, Farside Investors, CoinGlass, VanEck, Reuters
#BTC #Bitcoin #marketanalysis #ckswing #riskmanagement

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