Steven Walgenbach

Bitcoin Isn’t Broken — VanEck Says It’s Resetting

VanEck’s latest outlook argues that Bitcoin’s recent underperformance relative to equities reflects softer risk appetite and temporary liquidity pressures rather than structural weakness. With the asset lagging stocks in 2025, the firm believes the dislocation could set Bitcoin up for stronger relative performance once liquidity conditions improve.

VanEck also notes that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle remains intact following the latest cycle high, pointing to 2026 as a likely consolidation year rather than a dramatic melt-up or collapse. As gold captures headlines with record highs, the firm says Bitcoin’s quieter phase may ultimately prove more constructive for long-term investors.

#Bitcoin #DigitalAssets #CryptoMarkets $BTC

America Enters the Debt Service Era

US interest payments on national debt have surpassed $1 trillion for the first time, overtaking both defense spending and Medicare and marking a historic shift in federal finances. What was once a background line item has become the single largest expense in the US budget, raising concerns across markets about sustainability and long-term fiscal risk.

As debt servicing costs accelerate, Washington is turning to an unlikely tool for support: stablecoins. New regulations now require stablecoin issuers to hold reserves in short-term US Treasuries, effectively transforming crypto infrastructure into a structural buyer of government debt. Analysts estimate this demand could absorb a significant share of future Treasury issuance as foreign buyers step back.

The moment signals a deeper change in the relationship between government finance and digital assets. While many investors continue to default to gold in times of stress, stablecoins are quietly becoming part of the plumbing of US debt markets—suggesting crypto’s role in the global financial system is moving from the fringe to the core.

#USDebt #Stablecoins #DigitalFinance

Arthur Hayes’ Wallet Signals a Strategic Shift

Arthur Hayes appears to be reshaping his crypto exposure after moving millions of dollars out of Ethereum and sharply increasing his stablecoin holdings. On-chain data shows Hayes has steadily transferred ETH to exchanges in recent weeks, fueling speculation that he is selling as part of a broader portfolio rebalancing strategy.

At the same time, Hayes has been rotating capital into select DeFi tokens that have suffered steep drawdowns this year, suggesting a contrarian bet on a liquidity-driven recovery rather than a full retreat from risk. His portfolio now holds a dominant share in USDC, giving him flexibility as market sentiment remains subdued.

#CryptoMarkets #Ethereum #DeFi $ETH

Bitcoin’s $100K Milestone Looks Different After Inflation Adjustment

Bitcoin reached a nominal all-time high above $126,000 in October, but new analysis shows the cryptocurrency never actually crossed $100,000 when inflation is taken into account. Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn said that when Bitcoin’s price is adjusted using 2020 dollars, the asset peaked at $99,848, falling just short of the six-figure mark in real terms.

Thorn explained that the calculation accounts for the cumulative decline in U.S. dollar purchasing power across every Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation print since 2020. According to CPI data, prices today are roughly 25% higher than they were five years ago, meaning a dollar now buys about 80% of what it did at the start of the decade. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that CPI rose 2.7% year over year in November, highlighting that inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term target.

The inflation-adjusted perspective comes as Bitcoin trades near the $87,000 level following recent market weakness. The asset is on track to post its first negative fourth-quarter performance since 2022 and would need a sharp rally before year-end to close the quarter in positive territory. Broader crypto markets have also declined, with the total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin falling significantly over the past three months.

At the same time, the U.S. dollar has continued to weaken, with the Dollar Currency Index down more than 10% this year. In contrast, precious metals have surged, with gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all posting strong gains and several reaching new record or multi-year highs. The divergence has intensified comparisons between Bitcoin’s recent performance and traditional stores of value.

#Bitcoin #Inflation #DigitalAssets $BTC

Strategy Builds Cash, Hits Pause on Bitcoin Buying

Strategy has strengthened its balance sheet after raising $747.8 million through a common stock sale, lifting its cash reserves to $2.19 billion and temporarily pausing Bitcoin purchases as crypto markets remain under pressure.

The move signals a more defensive posture from the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, which is prioritizing liquidity to support dividends and debt obligations while navigating a prolonged market downturn. With Bitcoin accumulation on hold for now, Strategy appears focused on resilience rather than expansion as volatility continues to weigh on both digital assets and treasury-focused stocks.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets #DigitalAssets #strategy

Bitmine’s $40 Million Ethereum Buy Marks a Major Treasury Milestone

Ethereum treasury firm Bitmine has reached a significant milestone after completing a $40 million Ether purchase that pushed its total holdings beyond 4 million ETH. The latest acquisition capped an intense week of buying activity in which the company added close to 100,000 ETH, rapidly expanding one of the largest known corporate Ethereum treasuries in the market.

The timing of the purchase has proven notable. With Ethereum climbing back toward the $3,000 level, Bitmine’s ETH holdings have moved back into profit after being underwater during the market drawdown that followed October’s broader crypto selloff. At current prices, the company’s Ethereum treasury is valued at more than $12 billion, highlighting the scale of its exposure and the conviction behind its strategy.

Bitmine has been explicit that its accumulation is driven by a long-term view of Ethereum as foundational infrastructure for decentralized finance, tokenization, and on-chain settlement. The company has also outlined an ambitious target of ultimately owning 5% of Ethereum’s total supply, a goal that would represent an unprecedented concentration of ETH under a single corporate balance sheet.

Beyond accumulation, Bitmine plans to begin actively deploying its Ethereum holdings. The firm has said it is developing a staking solution expected to launch in early 2026, allowing it to generate yield from its ETH while contributing to the security of the Ethereum network. The move would mark a shift from passive treasury management toward a more active, infrastructure-oriented role within the ecosystem.

#Ethereum #DigitalAssets #CryptoTreasury #BitMine $ETH

Bitcoin Futures See a Shift in Market Leadership

#Binance has overtaken the CME Group as the largest venue for bitcoin futures open interest, marking a notable change in the structure of the crypto derivatives market. Data from CoinGlass shows Binance now holds a slightly larger share of open interest than CME, as institutional positioning on regulated futures venues has gradually declined.

The shift reflects waning profitability in the bitcoin basis trade, a strategy favored by institutions that involves buying spot bitcoin while selling futures to capture the price premium. As that premium has compressed and spot and futures prices have converged, many arbitrage-focused traders have reduced exposure on CME.

At the same time, open interest on Binance has remained relatively stable, supported by retail traders and short-term speculators betting on directional price moves. The contrast highlights a growing divide between institutional yield-driven strategies and retail-led momentum trading as bitcoin’s derivatives market becomes more efficient.

#Bitcoin #CryptoDerivatives #DigitalAssets $BTC

BlackRock Makes Its Bitcoin ETF a Pillar of the 2025 Investment Playbook

BlackRock has named its iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF as one of its top investment themes for 2025, elevating the product to the same strategic tier as Treasury bills and the largest U.S. stocks. The decision stands out in a year when Bitcoin has posted negative returns, underscoring the asset manager’s willingness to look beyond short-term performance and focus on long-term portfolio positioning.

Despite the market pullback, the Bitcoin ETF has continued to attract substantial capital, ranking among the top ETFs by inflows in 2025. By spotlighting IBIT alongside more traditional ETFs, BlackRock is signaling that regulated Bitcoin exposure via an ETF structure is no longer viewed as speculative, but as a viable component of diversified investment portfolios.

The move also highlights a broader shift in how large asset managers frame digital assets. Rather than emphasizing price momentum, BlackRock is positioning its Bitcoin ETF as a structural allocation tool, reflecting confidence in demand durability, liquidity, and the role ETFs play in bridging traditional finance with crypto markets.

#BitcoinETF #InstitutionalInvestors #ETFs $BTC #IBIT

Tether’s Quiet Pivot Into Consumer Crypto

Tether is preparing to move beyond its role as a backend stablecoin issuer and directly into the hands of users. CEO Paolo Ardoino has outlined plans for a self-custodial mobile wallet built around a tightly controlled asset set—Bitcoin via Lightning, USDT, gold-backed XAUT, and the new US-compliant USAT—signaling a focus on payments and long-term value rather than speculative DeFi.

What sets the project apart is its planned integration of local, on-device AI through Tether’s QVAC platform, enabling automated financial tasks without sending user data to the cloud. Combined with Tether’s broader push into privacy tools and security infrastructure, the move underscores how Tether is verticalizing its stack and positioning itself as a consumer-facing fintech and AI company—not just the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin.

#CryptoPayments #Stablecoins #AI #Tether

Russia’s Central Bank Makes a Quiet Bitcoin Concession

Russia’s central bank has taken a noticeably softer tone on cryptocurrency, acknowledging that the country’s rapidly expanding Bitcoin mining industry is now contributing to the strength of the ruble. For years, policymakers framed crypto almost exclusively as a financial stability risk, with repeated calls for bans on mining and trading. That narrative is now shifting as the economic footprint of industrial mining becomes harder to ignore.

Officials concede that the true scale of mining activity is difficult to measure, in part because a significant share of operations still exist in legal gray zones. Even so, mining is increasingly being recognized as an economic factor—one that effectively converts surplus domestic energy into globally liquid digital assets. Some policymakers have gone as far as describing mining as a new export-like sector that is beginning to influence foreign exchange dynamics.

At the same time, regulators appear to be moving away from outright opposition and toward managed oversight. Discussions are underway about routing future crypto activity through licensed financial institutions, allowing authorities to retain control while acknowledging market demand. Large Russian banks have already begun experimenting with crypto-linked products, signaling that the financial system is preparing for a more formal role in digital assets.

The shift does not amount to full crypto liberalization, but it does reflect a pragmatic recalibration. As mining embeds itself more deeply into Russia’s energy and economic strategy, even the country’s most vocal crypto skeptics are beginning to recognize its growing relevance.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMining #DigitalAssets

Arthur Hayes: Fed Liquidity Could Send Bitcoin to $200K

Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin could be on the verge of a powerful rally, driven not by ETFs or halving hype, but by a subtle shift in Federal Reserve liquidity policy. Hayes argues that the Fed’s new “Reserve Management Purchases” mechanism will ultimately be treated by markets as quantitative easing in disguise, injecting fresh liquidity into financial assets.

According to Hayes, that repricing could propel Bitcoin back above $124,000 and quickly toward $200,000 before expectations peak and a pullback sets in—still leaving BTC with a much higher long-term floor. His view stands in contrast to more cautious market data showing signs of a developing bear phase, underscoring a growing divide between macro-driven conviction and on-chain skepticism.

If Hayes is right, Bitcoin’s next major move may hinge less on crypto-native catalysts and more on how investors interpret the Fed’s balance sheet mechanics in the months ahead.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets #MacroEconomics $BTC

Saylor Signals Another Bitcoin Buy as Strategy Stays All-In

Michael Saylor is once again hinting at a fresh Bitcoin purchase for Strategy Inc., reinforcing the company’s commitment to its Bitcoin-first treasury strategy despite a steep decline in its stock and growing regulatory pressure. The signal follows a familiar pattern of cryptic posts that have historically preceded large Bitcoin acquisitions, suggesting another buy could soon be confirmed.

The move comes at a sensitive moment for Strategy, with shares sharply lower this year and questions mounting over whether the company still fits within traditional equity indices. Even so, Saylor’s message appears clear: market volatility, index reviews, and short-term stock performance have not altered the firm’s long-term conviction in Bitcoin as its core asset.

#Bitcoin #DigitalAssets #Markets $BTC #MSTR

When a Single Quote Becomes a Narrative

Litecoin has pushed back strongly after a viral post claimed that its founder Charlie Lee regrets creating Litecoin and wishes he had only bought Bitcoin. The claim was based on a clipped snippet in which Lee says, “Just buy Bitcoin, don’t sell.”

According to Litecoin’s official account, the quote was taken out of context from a longer CoinDesk interview and framed in a way that misrepresented Lee’s actual position. The project argues that the full discussion shows continued commitment to Litecoin, not regret, and that selective editing turned a nuanced point into a headline-friendly controversy.

The episode has reignited debate around how crypto narratives are formed on social media, particularly the role of short clips, influencer amplification, and framing in shaping market perception. For Litecoin, it was also an opportunity to publicly reaffirm Lee’s ongoing involvement, funding, and daily work on the network—more than a decade after its launch.

#Litecoin #CryptoMedia #Bitcoin $LTC $BTC

Zcash Nears a Technical Turning Point

Zcash is approaching a critical moment on the daily chart as selling pressure continues to fade and buyers step in to defend key support levels. After emerging from a corrective phase, price action has stabilized and is now pressing into a heavy resistance zone that could determine whether the recovery extends or stalls.

Momentum indicators suggest the market is no longer dominated by sellers, while order book data points to active demand below current levels and concentrated supply overhead. This combination places ZEC at a clear inflection point, where a breakout could accelerate upside continuation, while rejection may trigger renewed consolidation.

As traders watch how price behaves around resistance, the next move is likely to set the tone for Zcash’s medium-term trend.

#Zcash #CryptoMarkets #TechnicalAnalysis $ZEC

UNI Enters a Critical Technical Phase

Uniswap’s UNI token is showing early signs of a structural shift on the daily chart, as improving momentum and strong buyer defense begin to reshape its short-term outlook. After stabilizing above key support levels, UNI has reclaimed important technical ground, suggesting that bearish pressure is easing and that buyers are gradually regaining control.

Momentum indicators are turning constructive, while order book data shows meaningful bid support just below the current price, helping limit downside risk. At the same time, overhead supply near key resistance levels will likely determine whether UNI can extend its recovery or enter a period of consolidation.

With market structure improving but confirmation still required, UNI now sits at a pivotal point where the next move could define its near-term trend.

#Uniswap #CryptoMarkets #DeFi #UNI $UNI

BNB Nears A Decision Point On The Daily Chart

BNB continues to trade under bearish pressure on the daily timeframe, but signs of slowing downside momentum are beginning to emerge. While price remains below key trend indicators, strong bid support has helped stabilize recent declines, suggesting sellers are no longer in full control.

At the same time, heavy resistance overhead continues to cap upside attempts, keeping rallies corrective rather than impulsive. This balance between firm support and dense supply has compressed price action, setting the stage for a decisive move as traders watch for confirmation in either direction.

If buyers can absorb sell-side liquidity and reclaim key resistance zones, momentum could shift in favor of a broader recovery. Failure to hold current support, however, would reinforce the bearish structure and reopen downside risk.

#BNB #CryptoMarkets #TechnicalAnalysis $BNB

IBIT Investors Are Playing the Long Game

Investors are continuing to allocate capital to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust even as the fund posts a negative return in 2025, highlighting a growing shift in how bitcoin exposure is being treated within traditional portfolios. Despite being down on the year, IBIT ranks among the top ETFs by inflows, drawing in tens of billions of dollars alongside some of the largest equity and index funds in the market.

The data challenges the long-held assumption that bitcoin-related products are driven primarily by short-term momentum. Instead, IBIT’s inflows suggest a more patient investor base that appears willing to hold through periods of underperformance in anticipation of longer-term adoption and market cycles. Notably, IBIT is attracting more new capital than several ETFs that are posting strong gains this year, including gold-backed products.

For market observers, the resilience of IBIT’s demand during a down year may be one of the most important signals coming out of the #etf market in 2025. If investors are willing to commit capital during periods of weakness, it could point to a more stable ownership base for bitcoin and a deeper integration of crypto exposure into mainstream investment strategies.

#Bitcoin #ETFs #DigitalAssets #IBIT $BTC

Fundstrat’s Bitcoin Debate Highlights How Crypto Research Really Works

A debate on X over Fundstrat’s bitcoin outlook intensified over the weekend after screenshots circulated showing apparently divergent views from the firm’s analysts. One perspective outlined the possibility of a medium-term pullback as part of a risk-management framework, while another suggested bitcoin could still reach new all-time highs as early as 2026. The contrast sparked questions from traders about whether Fundstrat was sending mixed signals at a critical point in the market cycle.

The discussion drew a response from a Fundstrat client who argued that the debate was being misunderstood, emphasizing that the firm’s senior figures operate with different mandates rather than a single unified forecast. According to that explanation, portfolio-level risk management, macro liquidity analysis, and technical chart signals are designed to complement one another, even when they appear to point in different directions.

Co-founder Tom Lee appeared to endorse that view with a brief response on X, a move widely interpreted as confirmation that the differing outlooks are not contradictory.

#Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets #DigitalAssets $BTC

Altcoin Season Didn’t Disappear — It Changed

While many traders are still waiting for a clear signal that altcoin season has arrived, Arthur Hayes argues it’s been underway all along — just not in the way past cycles conditioned the market to expect.

According to the BitMEX co-founder, the mistake many participants are making is waiting for the same tokens and narratives that dominated previous runs to repeat themselves. Instead, this cycle has rewarded new platforms, new use cases, and more selective bets, leaving those anchored to old playbooks feeling like the rally never came.

Hayes points to sharp moves in newer or re-emerging assets as evidence that capital has already rotated within the altcoin market, even if it hasn’t done so in a broad, market-wide surge. The takeaway: altcoin season may no longer be a single moment — but a series of opportunities that favor adaptation over nostalgia.

#CryptoMarkets #Altcoins #DigitalAssets