Mohamed A. El-Erian Re-poster

American consumer confidence took an unexpected upward turn this month, though the details reveal a somewhat divided picture. Surpassing the consensus forecast of 87.9, the composite index successfully climbed from 91.0 to a solid 91.8.

When looking deeper into the metrics, two contrasting narratives emerge. The overall positive surprise was entirely fueled by how people view current conditions. Conversely, the forward-looking expectations segment saw a noticeable decline. Alongside this dip in future optimism, public projections for year-ahead inflation climbed from 5.5% up to 6.2%.

#economy #growth #inflation #markets #confidence

A recent update from @FT highlights a notable shift in international financial strategies. In an effort to stabilize local currencies and bolster domestic economies in the aftermath of the Iran war, nations are actively offloading their US government bonds. Because of this widespread sell off, foreign central banks have decreased their Treasury assets kept at the New York Federal Reserve to a baseline not observed since 2012.

Looking closely at the specific Fed data, the overall value of Treasuries safeguarded by the New York Fed on behalf of official institutions has experienced a drop of $82bn since February 25. This recent reduction brings the total amount down to $2.7tn. For some helpful context, this group classified as official institutions is predominantly made up of central banks, though it also encompasses various governments and international institutions.

#economy #markets

A fascinating paradox has surfaced in the March economic data for the Eurozone. Observers are justifiably directing their primary attention toward headline inflation. This overall rate experienced a substantial climb, rising from 1.9% in February up to 2.5%. Because of this upward shift, there is a strong probability that cost-push inflation will eventually trigger a spillover effect into core prices. Interestingly, the statistics published this morning reveal a contrasting trend in underlying costs. Core inflation has actually cooled down to a level of 2.3%. Alongside this, the historically persistent services sector also demonstrated a slowdown, dropping to 3.2% from its previous mark of 3.4%.

#economy #inflatin #europe #eurozone #markets

Recent data released by the ONS demonstrates that the gross domestic product of the UK grew by 0.1% during the fourth quarter, directly matching the level of expansion observed in the third quarter. At the same time, the economic output per capita experienced a decline of 0.1%.

When reviewing 2025 in its entirety, the overall growth rate reached 1.4%. However, a substantial portion of this upward movement actually took place during the earliest part of the year.

These statistics collectively underscore a delicate situation. They illustrate that the UK economy is currently managing the negative financial consequences tied to the Middle East War from a state of growth fragility.

You can review the full source details via the link below.

https://t.co/bozvNul7sT

#economy #markets #uk #growth

A Bloomberg table on a brutal month for stock markets around the world.

#economy #markets #stocks #investing #investora

A stark message from the IMF: "Although the war could shape the global economy in different ways, all roads lead to higher prices and slower growth."
https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2026/03/30/how-the-war-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-energy-trade-and-finance
#economy #markets #growth #inflation @IMFNews

As we monitor global bond markets, please keep an eye on whether France, Japan, and the UK mimic the retreat in US yields.
The three G7 markets have already faced pressure from bond vigilantes since 2022.
Whether they follow the US lead or decouple will be an important signal for the weeks ahead.
#economy #markets #bonds #france #uk #japan

My thoughts on how the Middle East conflict is shaping the outlook for the US economy (link below).
Bottom line: While the US will continue to outperform other advanced economies under almost any war scenario, the absolute headwinds facing the domestic economy are intensifying. This is a moment for humility and decisive action rather than hubris
https://t.co/Y4XoL1jRUv
#economy #markets #middleeastwar @ProSyn

FT charts on the liquidity and credit risks that are front and center for investors in certain private credit funds (along with some underwriting worries).
#economy #markets #privatecredit @FT

The widespread decline across the stock market this month has actually produced some highly appealing price points for individual companies. However, discovering a favorable price is merely one component of achieving positive results in your portfolio. The road ahead remains complicated and prone to rapid fluctuations because the other two critical factors, underlying fundamentals and market technicals, continue to signal caution. I am looking forward to exploring exactly how market participants should navigate these specific conditions during my upcoming appearance on Squawk Box within the hour.

#stocks #investing #investors #markets

Huge congratulations to Sebastian Mallaby on his new book. Looking forward to reading it.
#books @penguinpress @scmallaby

Expect a significant amount of conversation to be generated by this piece from the Wall Street Journal.

@wsj #economy #markets #privatecredit

This serves as a serious warning that we might simply be observing the very beginning of the impacts on our economic and financial networks. Out of all the issues analyzed during numerous weekend conference calls regarding the economic and financial consequences of the Middle East conflict, one specific observation resonated the most. It was pointed out that the general public still does not fully comprehend the massive scale of this shock.

#economy #markets #middleeastwar

Early Asian Trading Market Brief

As investors ready themselves for a volatile week ahead, the expanding Middle East War remains the primary force shaping market trends. During the opening hours of trading in Asia, the price of Brent crude advanced to $115. This upward movement in oil is once again exerting downward pressure on US stock futures.

#economy #markets #stocks #oil #investing #investors

Here is a clear illustration of a continuous and emerging threat to the US economy stemming from the US-Israeli War on Iran. The situation starts as a basic struggle with the cost of living, driven by an Energy Price Shock. However, if these high expenses persist, the challenge can easily transform into a Demand Shock, meaning businesses will face a market with fewer buyers. In the end, this chain of events brings a real possibility of increased joblessness alongside a broader slowdown in economic growth.

#economy #markets #middleeastwar
@nytimes

Welcome to my latest weekly overview of international markets and the broader global economy. If you are interested in diving into the comprehensive analysis, please feel free to check out the complete articles through the direct addresses provided below.

You can read the full Substack publication here:
https://mohamedelerian.substack.com/publish/posts/detail/192498506?referrer=%2Fpublish%2Fposts%2Fpublished

The entire write-up is also available on LinkedIn at the following destination:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-gijee

#economy #markets

How much you pay to fill your vehicle depends significantly on your exact location. Based on recent charts provided by AAA, there are substantial regional disparities regarding the average cost of gas (petrol) throughout the US. At present, the nationwide baseline for regular fuel rests at $3.98. However, motorists in Oklahoma are spending just below $3.30, whereas drivers in California face average prices of nearly $6. When it comes to managing your fuel tank, geography plays a major role.

#economy #markets #gaspricehike #middleastwar @AAA_Travel

Building on my earlier posts regarding the pressures traditional portfolio diversification has faced this month, I wanted to share a relevant piece from the Wall Street Journal. The article highlights that investors suffering from stock declines are finding almost no refuge in the bond market. It explains that a combination of inflation concerns and forced selling has driven a significant surge in Treasury yields. #economy #markets #investing #investors @WSJ

The financial and economic impacts of the continuously expanding Middle East War are becoming much more evident across the globe. We are currently experiencing stagflationary winds, a correction in the S&P, and the largest monthly loss for the classic 60/40 investment portfolio since 2022. A heavy influx of information is arriving this week, which will allow us to measure the level of resilience remaining in our system. Volatility, dispersion, and fragmentation were the three themes projected for this year, and they have now emerged as active forces completely transforming the global economy and markets. You can access my latest Weekly Look at the Global Economy and Markets through the links provided below.

https://t.co/LTKzit0mFB
https://t.co/LGhYH00KIP
#economy #markets

We are currently enjoying a wonderful family excursion to the baseball stadium. Everyone is here to enthusiastically cheer for the Mets! I do have to acknowledge, however, that the temperature outside is absolutely freezing. #family @Mets #lgm