WallStreetBets

The whole market was pricing in a peace deal this week.
Today the signing 𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗮𝗽𝘀𝗲𝗱.

Israel hit southern Lebanon overnight, Iran pulled its delegation, and the Bürgenstock signing is off indefinitely. the tape did the rest:

→ $BTC down about 3% to $62,500
→ ETH off 3.26% at $1,687
→ $XRP the worst major, down 4.61% to $1.12
→ SOL off 4.89% to $68
→ BNB down 3.22% at $571
→ Total market cap sliding toward $2.1T

Two hits in one week.

Wednesday it was the Fed turning hawkish. today it's the peace deal falling apart.

Fear and Greed is back in 𝗘𝘅𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝗿.

𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗴𝗼𝘁 𝗻𝗼 𝗴𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗻𝗲𝘄𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸.

one thing didn't move: the CLARITY Act is still on the Senate calendar, July 4 target intact.

the dump is geopolitics. the catalyst is still coming.
fear's back in the building 👀

#USIranSwissTalksPostponed #CLARITYAct

Most people thought this Fed meeting was a non-event.

The 𝗱𝗼𝘁 𝗽𝗹𝗼𝘁 said otherwise.

They held rates, exactly like the market expected. then the
projections dropped:

→ Rates held at 3.50% to 3.75%, unanimous vote
→ 97% of traders had priced the hold, not the dots
→ Median 2026 dot moved from 3.4% to 𝟯.𝟴%
→ 9 officials now back another hike this year
→ Inflation ticked back up to 4.2%
→ Jobs still hot: 172,000 added in May, 4.3% unemployment

A hold was never the story.

The real story is the Fed penciling in a 𝗵𝗶𝗸𝗲 for this year.

$BTC and $ETH ran all year on cuts that just got erased.

𝗧𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗵𝗮𝘄𝗸𝗶𝘀𝗵 𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱.

every risk trade this year leaned on the Fed easing.

that lean just got knocked out.

watching this one 👀

#FedHawkishDotPlotFlattensYieldCurve

Everyone calls the ETF crowd 𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀.

the last three weeks said otherwise.

here's what the $BTC ETF tape actually did:

→ 13 straight days of outflows

→ 4B+ pulled out

→ 59,000+ BTC gone

→ holdings down to 1.27M BTC

→ AUM fell from 104B to 80B

→ longest red streak since the 2024 launch

then friday it 𝘀𝗻𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗱. fresh money came back in and blackrock's IBIT grabbed about two thirds of it.

and most of the cash that left just 𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 into the bigger alts.

𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗧𝗙 𝗰𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗱𝘀 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁.

three weeks of red, one green friday. watching if it holds 👀

#WTIFallsBelow$80 #BitcoinETF

Most of crypto spent last week pricing in a 𝘄𝗮𝗿.

$BTC just spent the weekend pricing it back out.

the round trip in numbers:

→ dumped from 73,000 to under 60,000 last week
→ lowest level since November 2024
→ clawed back to ~63,500 by the weekend
→ opened Monday at 𝟲𝟱,𝟳𝟭𝟬, up 2%
→ $ETH up 2.6%, back near 1,762
→ highest prints since June even started
→ US/Iran ceasefire on the table, signing as soon as this week
→ oil rolling over, Nasdaq bid up off the SpaceX debut

𝘀𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁, 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗼𝗱.

last week the timeline wanted 55k.

this week it's green and nobody remembers.

macro headlines are moving this market harder than any chart right now.

ceasefire holds, risk stays on. watching this one 👀

#USIranDealConfirmed #BitcoinTops$66K

WSB now trading in $SUI

gm

If you want to start a crypto project you can either change the world or have a coin attached to it.

Just not both.

There are two types of people in this world:

1) those who think crypto is a bunch of coins whose price goes up and down

2) those who get it

I'm sad to say I was a member of team 1 for way to long and I acknowledge my mistake.

Imagine a world where WallStreetBets and Crypto were united.

Conventional investing wisdom is dead:

- Stocks and bonds are now correlated.

- Inflation and Gold are now inverse correlated.

Please just point me to the nearest jpeg hub so I can get my sanity back.