Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top.
Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below).
Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it.
Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏
Reminder that today is the last work day of February. Month candle close on Saturday. And if you check Monthly chart, you'll notice, that bearish momentum is still strong. Even if next months there will be a reversal, most probably BTC will revisit part of February buy tail length.
That makes me think that 64250 / 63500 zones are also realistic. But if next month market push prices up, we may also count on 70-74k re-test. So dips are interesting for buying. But within downtrend should be taken with caution.
Today's telegram alarm triggered for another re-test of developing Year VWAP VAL. Previously BTC made several attempts to find acceptance above that dynamic SR level, and failed. Twice in January and twice in February. Will that time be different? Share your opinion and forecast for March 🙏🏼
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 70939, 64250, 62401, 62000.
$BTC closed two CME gaps on yesterday's pump and opened a new one below. It was a strong LTF bullish move within strong HTF downtrend. Similar moves happened on January 5th and 14th when price grown to 98k before collapsing to 62k. Will it be different this time?
Its the top of range. Market usually create moves that cause maximum pain for those who've chosen the wrong direction. For LTF shorts that already happened. More blood can only be above 72300. And for longs max pain happens if price push back to ~69700 and get rejected there, dumping back to ~64200.
What I want to say is that on it's own it looks very promising, and may lead to reversal, but that is all on lower timeframes. Reversal won't happen instantly and will require some time. Plus that new gap down to 64665 ask for revisit.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 70939, 64250, 62401, 62000.
Today showing CME for a change, since usual CEX charts are pushing bullish fomo again. This 1H TF covers all February and last week of January and clearly shows that downtrend remains strong and we are yet far from claiming that price will never dip under 62480 again.
With that said, CEX LTF charts look positive. Nothing yet happened, no HL or HH formed. But I believe that bullish bounce may take a while and eventually has potential to grow higher above 67k already today. But, as I wrote yesterday, to give a real bullish hope, price got to find acceptance above ~68k
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 70939, 68687, 62401, 62000.
Since #Ethereum remains in downtrend we may expect another dip within this or next week and most obvious zone for price to explore is under 1730. More or less "support" starts at ~1650. So this is the range to look for new long entries on the dips, which would target 2450-2600 zone as long term target for a bounce.
Wise Analyze
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$ETH remains within downtrend. In case price grows up first towards weekend FVG at 2028-2052 (correlates with developing VWAP VAL), that move should be watched for potential rejection and short entry.
If first move will be down, then nearest LPs are ~1922 and ~1885, while big FVG remains at 1797-1828 zone and can be hunted on bigger volatility PA.
Main strategy for today and this week - wait for liquidity hunt move and in case of high volume and long wicks consider entering trade in the opposite direction.
⏰ TG #Ethereum alarms set for: D/W/M-20sma, VWAP VAL, 1926
$BTC bounced to 66574 and got rejected there - downtrend stays strong ✅ Next target zone around 62.7k achieved ✅
At this stage no signs for reversal on 4H chart. Doesn't mean it can't happen later, but till it does, no sense in flipping bias to bullish and risk with longs.
Short term watch PA around ~63.8-64k. After that either market decide to consolidate longer, which may lead to re-test of higher levels at ~65.2k / 66.7k or it will continue falling and eventually hunt for liquidity at 62000 / 60206. Since BTC is in downtrend, lower targets always have higher chance to be hit.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 62000.
Wise Analyze
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
BTC hit my target at ~68.6k and cleared liquidity under 65k after that ✅✅ First happened during weekend, so it doesn't count - the gap remains open on CME chart.
Friday closed around 68k, so if today New York open finds itself below that value, that will create another gap on the upside - another magnet for future PA.
Short term, watch the bounce to ~66.6-66.8k. Either market will short that move, or catch shorts in a trap, pushing price higher back to Friday close and eventually higher. I don't know what exactly will happen, but the chart remain within downtrend, so bias remains bearish.
BTC hit my target at ~68.6k and cleared liquidity under 65k after that ✅✅ First happened during weekend, so it doesn't count - the gap remains open on CME chart.
Friday closed around 68k, so if today New York open finds itself below that value, that will create another gap on the upside - another magnet for future PA.
Short term, watch the bounce to ~66.6-66.8k. Either market will short that move, or catch shorts in a trap, pushing price higher back to Friday close and eventually higher. I don't know what exactly will happen, but the chart remain within downtrend, so bias remains bearish.
Wise Analyze
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
Situation shifted slightly - the lower CME gap is now closed ✅ The nearest open gap sits 68336–68750 (Binance prices) and acts as a strong price magnet. The next one is much higher at 72300–73056.
Liquidity below ~65k still hasn’t been cleared, leaving that area vulnerable. The higher $BTC pushes, the harsher a future correction could be. That dump may end the downtrend - but it likely still has to happen.
Situation shifted slightly - the lower CME gap is now closed ✅ The nearest open gap sits 68336–68750 (Binance prices) and acts as a strong price magnet. The next one is much higher at 72300–73056.
Liquidity below ~65k still hasn’t been cleared, leaving that area vulnerable. The higher $BTC pushes, the harsher a future correction could be. That dump may end the downtrend - but it likely still has to happen.
On higher timeframe picture is clear - there is no way $BTC will grow anywhere till it wipe out stops under ~65k.
If pump to ~69-70k happens first, that will leave both CME gap and 65k stops behind, which is not very bullish in long term. Market will have to come back to pick them up. That may lead to a bloody scenario where BTC grows to upper CME gap at ~73k, grab liquidity and then dump back.
Lower CME gap reduced to 65575-65826 range (for Binance prices).
At the same time keep in mind that fear and greed index is at it's historical lows. And even Binance are buying here for their SAFU fund. So the bottom is near.
Alarm for #Ethereum cross VWAP VAL appeared on TG today - that happened at price ~2023. This dynamic level may act as support in case ETH find acceptance above. Last attempt to do so was during this weekend, but weekend PA doesn't count, so now is the first real attempt to grow above.
In case of another rejection (chart is still in downtrend, so chances for that are higher), we should see liquidity hunt at ~1922 and ~1885 pools. Big FVG remains at 1797-1828 zone and can be hunted on bigger volatility PA.
⏰ TG alarms set for: D/W/M-20sma, VWAP VAL, 2080, 1926
$BTC haven't yet revisited Friday close for NY at ~68800, so it remains a "magnet" zone and nearest target for today.
Lower CME gap partially closed o yesterday's dip, but also remains open at 65575-66588 range. Second nearest is above at 72300-73056 (for Binance prices).
Chart remains within downtrend in a choppy consolidation on Daily. If market decide to hunt for bigger liquidity on the downside, it will push price to 65080 at least. Similar in size LP on the upside is above ~71430, but its a long way there.
⏰ TG alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 70000, 67500, 64440.
Wise Analyze
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
Nearest targets from yesterday's $BTC review at 70k and 67.3k were hit on the same day with exceptional precision 👌🏼
But yesterday was a bank holiday in US, so they didn't take part in this price action.
Friday close for NY was at ~68800. That will be the first "magnet" zone.
Next important zones are nearest CME gaps correlating with Binance chart at 65575-67250 and 72300-73056. These are "magnets" as well.
With Tuesday being "Monday" hard to forecast anything specific. I suggest to watch these main zones I've marked and act based on price action and volume there. This should be the safest approach at this stage.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 70000, 67500, 64440.
With Tuesday being "Monday" hard to forecast anything specific. I suggest to watch these main zones I've marked and act based on price action and volume there. This should be the safest approach at this stage.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 70000, 67500, 64440.
Wise Analyze
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Ανατιμητική
📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
Weekend pump-and-dump doesn’t count - $BTC closed the week where Friday closed. No fresh gaps, except a small weekend FVG near 70k.
LTF shows sideways consolidation inside a broader HTF downtrend. Four red weekly candles are losing momentum, hinting at choppy consolidation for a couple of months. If so, BTC could range roughly 63k–74k in that period.
Short term, a 70k revisit and a dip toward ~67.3k both look likely - sequence unclear. Bigger liquidity sits below 65080 and above 70940, better zones for heavier trades.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 70000, 67500, 64440.
$ETH remains within downtrend. In case price grows up first towards weekend FVG at 2028-2052 (correlates with developing VWAP VAL), that move should be watched for potential rejection and short entry.
If first move will be down, then nearest LPs are ~1922 and ~1885, while big FVG remains at 1797-1828 zone and can be hunted on bigger volatility PA.
Main strategy for today and this week - wait for liquidity hunt move and in case of high volume and long wicks consider entering trade in the opposite direction.
⏰ TG #Ethereum alarms set for: D/W/M-20sma, VWAP VAL, 1926
Weekend pump-and-dump doesn’t count - $BTC closed the week where Friday closed. No fresh gaps, except a small weekend FVG near 70k.
LTF shows sideways consolidation inside a broader HTF downtrend. Four red weekly candles are losing momentum, hinting at choppy consolidation for a couple of months. If so, BTC could range roughly 63k–74k in that period.
Short term, a 70k revisit and a dip toward ~67.3k both look likely - sequence unclear. Bigger liquidity sits below 65080 and above 70940, better zones for heavier trades.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 70000, 67500, 64440.
CME gap almost closed, just need one more small dip to ~64444 to cover it fully. But first move so far seems to be upwards. Watch 67.2-67.5k zone for rejection or breakout. Rejection has higher chances, since $BTC is within downtrend on this TF.
Flip to relatively bullish bias only after Bitcoin manage to grow above 68835. That is the minimum requirement, but it won't reverse the downtrend on its own. Reversal will take days and weeks of consolidation and redistribution of positions.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 64440.
Yesterday $BTC shown some serious volatility hitting both lower and upper targets. Today Fear&Greed dropped to 5. FIVE CARL! 😱 That is very bullish. If only chart would show the same. Unfortunately, downtrend remains valid, so early to state bottom or reversal.
Main strategy now is to watch the dips for longs while being cautious with shorts (cause F&G is 5!). US POC left at 66560 within FVG. That makes that zone very attractive for revisit. But that area doesn't hold much liquidity. So strong bounce there should be very bullish. If not, and market push for bigger LP, it should target ~65222 zone.
Upper liquidity around 68666 marks out the level that US session missed on yesterday's PA. UK pumped and dumped BTC before NY started trading. So they barely had a chance to sell above 68k. Once again I want to stress out that chart is in downtrend, so pumps are harder to do and easier to dump. Keep that in mind.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 65300, 63924.
$BTC followed my forecast and already tagged 68200 and 67000 ✅✅ Next extension target for this leg is ~65.3–66k. This idea is invalidated if price reclaims 69263 - until then, the bearish plan stays on.
Major liquidity sits below 61k - that’s for a bigger dump scenario, or a slow, extended retrace. Not calling lower targets yet. Step by step. Fear & Greed is at the floor, so I’m ready to flip bullish the moment the market gives a real signal — but not before.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 65300, 63924.
$BTC got rejected from October close (70321) again and now price formed something like Head&Shoulders pattern. If it expends, we should finally see the dip to 68200 / 67000 / 65300.
In case #Bitcoin manage to grow back above October close, most probably will continue higher to 72500-73000 LP. After that yet hard to predict or foresee.
This chart is broken with CME gaps all around. Nearest below down to 64810 - market might want to cover it before growing back up. That moment alone keeps me away from longs. But on the upside nearest gap is up to 73345, so that makes another scenario possible - first cover that gap and then go down for lower. Only time will show which scenario will be in play.
#Ethereum remains within downtrend. Got to see it grow towards 2200 and see reaction there before flipping bias. To keep these chances got to get a bullish reaction at ~1950 as well.
$BTC closed a small FVG and tagged the developing Year VWAP VAL, where price got rejected. Trend remains bearish, but extreme fear plus strong volume suggest consolidation is likely here.
Lower green dots may get swept today. Bigger liquidity sits below 60.8k - a risky zone that could trigger a deeper drop.
Upside, the first meaningful target is above 73k. If BTC pushes there, some recovery becomes realistic. Until then - premature.
I’ve barely traded since mid-January - market kept dumping while I slept and gave no clean short entries during my trading time. So I was mostly watching. Thinking of getting more active again.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: W/M20sma, 109557, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 93550, 90593, 67250, 65300.
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