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Bitcoin’s latest drop has reignited a familiar debate across the market: was that the bottom, or is the real pain still ahead? With BTC now hovering around the $70,000 level, traders are desperately trying to figure out whether this was just another leverage flush… or the start of something much deeper.
Two analysts, Alex Mason and Brett, have both pushed the same uncomfortable idea this week: the most important signal in Bitcoin is the historical structure of how bottoms actually form.
And if history is any guide, the market may not be done yet.
Alex Mason’s Warning: Timing Matters More Than Price
Alex Mason’s tweet focuses on something most traders completely ignore during corrections: cycle timing.
The chart he shared tracks Bitcoin drawdowns from all-time highs to eventual cycle lows, and the takeaway is simple. In previous bear markets, the true bottom didn’t arrive immediately after the first major sell-off. It took time (often hundreds of days) for Bitcoin to fully bleed out and reset sentiment.
That’s the part most traders struggle with.
Everyone wants a clean number: “I’ll buy at $60K” or “The bottom is $50K.” But Mason argues that the market doesn’t work like that. Historically, the final low tends to arrive after a long psychological grind, not during the first wave of panic.

The timing window is what makes his argument so unsettling. If Bitcoin is still early in that cycle timeline, then even a sharp bounce from $70K doesn’t necessarily confirm anything. It could simply be a pause before the next leg down.
In other words, price may already feel cheap… but time may not be finished doing its damage.
Brett’s Chart: The -50% Marker Is Only the Beginning
Brett’s tweet reinforces that same idea, but through an even more brutal historical lens.
His chart highlights something Bitcoin traders often forget: bear markets rarely end with a clean V-shaped recovery. Outside of extreme liquidity events like trillions in quantitative easing, Bitcoin typically does not bottom instantly.
Instead, it forms a base.
That base is usually messy, slow, and deeply frustrating. Months of sideways chop, repeated fakeouts, dead-cat bounces, and emotional exhaustion. That’s how Bitcoin resets.
What makes Brett’s chart so important is the pattern it shows across multiple cycles: the -50% drawdown marker is not the finish line. It’s often just the entry point into the real bottom formation zone.
The red circles on his chart mark the initial major breakdowns, and the green zones highlight what happens next – extended consolidation periods where Bitcoin trades sideways for months before a true uptrend begins again.
That’s the signal traders are ignoring.
Not the wick. Not the bounce. The base.
Read also: Bitcoin Maxis Are Ignoring the Biggest Threat Yet
Why This Matters Right Now
Bitcoin’s current price action has been violent, but it’s also familiar. Large drawdowns are normal in this market, even inside long-term bullish cycles. A 40–50% decline is not a black swan event for Bitcoin; it’s historically part of the process.
The real danger is psychological.
Most participants assume the bottom must arrive quickly, because the pain feels unbearable in the moment. But bear markets don’t end when fear begins. They end when exhaustion takes over.
If Mason and Brett are right, then Bitcoin may still need more time in this zone; building a floor, flushing out remaining leverage, and forcing patience onto a market that hates waiting.
The next major move may not come from a single candle.
It may come after months of silence.
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The post Bitcoin Traders Are Ignoring the Most Important Signal appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.

Introduction
The crypto market today is highly volatile, with Bitcoin and altcoins moving unpredictably. Many traders are confused about what strategy to follow during such uncertain conditions. Should you buy, sell, hold, or stay away from the market?
This article explains simple and effective strategies you can use in today’s crypto market, whether you are a beginner or an experienced trader.
1. Understand the Current Market Phase
Before making any trade, you must understand the market phase. Crypto markets usually move in three main phases:
Accumulation: Smart money buys quietly when prices are low and sentiment is negative.Markup (Bull Run): Prices rise rapidly as more investors enter the market.Distribution and Decline: Smart money sells, and prices fall as fear spreads.
Today’s market looks like a mix of accumulation and uncertainty. This means patience is more important than aggressive trading.
2. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) Strategy
One of the safest strategies in volatile markets is Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA). Instead of investing all your money at once, you buy small amounts regularly.
Benefits of DCA:
Reduces the risk of buying at the topRemoves emotional decision-makingWorks well for long-term investors
This strategy is especially useful when the market direction is unclear.
3. Focus on Strong Projects Only
In uncertain markets, not all coins survive. Many weak altcoins can go to zero during long bear markets.
Today’s strategy should be:
Focus on Bitcoin and EthereumResearch top blockchain projects with real use casesAvoid random meme coins and hype tokens without fundamentals
Quality over quantity is the key.
4. Risk Management Is Everything
No strategy works without risk management. Smart traders follow these rules:
Never invest more than you can afford to loseUse stop-loss to protect capitalAvoid high leverage in uncertain marketsDiversify your portfolio
Protecting your capital is more important than making big profits.
5. Short-Term Trading vs Long-Term Holding
Today’s market is not ideal for beginners to day trade. High volatility can wipe out accounts quickly.
Beginners: Focus on long-term holding and learningExperienced traders: Use technical analysis, support and resistance levels, and strict risk control
Choose a strategy that matches your experience and emotional control.
6. Follow Market News and On-Chain Data
Macro news, regulations, ETF flows, and on-chain data influence today’s crypto market. Smart investors follow:
Bitcoin dominanceExchange inflows and outflowsInstitutional activityGlobal economic news
Information is power in crypto.
7. Psychology: The Hidden Strategy
The best strategy today is not technical, it is psychological. Avoid fear, greed, and revenge trading. Stick to your plan and avoid emotional decisions.
The market will always give opportunities to disciplined traders.
Conclusion
Today’s crypto market requires patience, education, and discipline. Instead of chasing quick profits, focus on building a strong long-term strategy.
Use DCA, invest in strong projects, manage risk, and control your emotions. Those who survive uncertain markets are usually the biggest winners in the next bull run.
Crypto is a marathon, not a sprint.