美国非农数据

Non-farm data is out. In November, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population in the United States increased by 64,000, exceeding the market's general expectation of 50,000. The unemployment rate in the United States in November recorded 4.6%, above the expected 4.4%, the highest since September 2021.

Let's talk about my understanding of contradictory data.

Why have job openings increased while the number of unemployed people has also increased?

This is similar to participating in a large game of 'musical chairs.' We can look at what happened in this game from three perspectives.

1. Different statistical methods: counting 'chairs' vs counting 'heads.'
This is the most critical reason. The U.S. government has two groups of people using different methods to calculate the numbers.

Brothers, the wind direction has changed! Institutions and big players are secretly offloading, in the next couple of days, four major news events are clustered together, and if we're not careful, a run could occur; not reading this article now could really lead to crying losses!
Institutions vote with their feet: ETF data can’t be hidden anymore
Not long ago, BTC/ETH ETFs were setting new highs for net inflows daily, now it's completely reversed:
The day before yesterday, BTC ETF had a net outflow of 83 million, ETH outflow of 5 million
The amount may seem small, but compared to the previous frantic buying, this is a 'run warning'!
Institutions are 10 times more sensitive than retail investors; their withdrawal now shows they fear the upcoming news will tank the market - it's like ants moving house before a storm, ordinary people are unaware, while those in the know have already hidden in bomb shelters.

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*#美国非农数据 #MarketPullback

#美国非农数据
Hey there! Ever wondered what gets the financial world buzzing every month? It’s the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. This jobs report is like a monthly health check for the U.S. economy, influencing markets, the Federal Reserve, and even your daily life. Let’s dive into what the NFP is all about, why it matters, and what it’s telling us in 2025—keeping it real and easy to follow.
What’s the Scoop on Non-Farm Payroll Data?
Think of the NFP as a snapshot of how many jobs the U.S. gained or lost last month, skipping over farming, government, private households, and nonprofits. The BLS pulls this info from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, chatting with about 144,000 businesses and agencies across 697,000 worksites. It’s their way of feeling the economy’s pulse and spotting trends in industries like tech or retail.
What’s Packed in the NFP Report?
This report isn’t just one number—it’s a goldmine of details. The big headline is the job count: are we adding jobs or losing them? Then there’s the unemployment rate, showing how many folks are out there looking for work. Average hourly earnings let you see if paychecks are growing, which can hint at inflation. You also get a peek at workweek hours and which sectors, like healthcare or manufacturing, are busy hiring or cutting back. It’s like a behind-the-scenes look at what’s driving the economy.
Why Should This Matter to You?
You might ask, “Why care about this?” Well, jobs are the backbone of spending, and when people have work, they’re more likely to shop or dine out, keeping the economy rolling. The Federal Reserve watches this closely—if jobs and wages spike, they might raise interest rates to tame inflation. If it’s weak, they could lower rates to give things a lift. Markets go wild too—stocks, the U.S. dollar, even gold prices can jump or dip based on the news. Since the U.S. is a global economic leader, this report ripples worldwide, affecting your investments or the price of imported goods.
How Do They Put This Together?
The BLS doesn’t guess—these numbers come from surveying thousands of businesses for payroll data, then tweaking it to smooth out seasonal ups and downs, like holiday hires. The first report is a rough draft, and they often revise it later with more data, which can shift the story a bit.
Reading Between the Lines
When the NFP drops, everyone checks if it matches what economists predicted. If they expected 200,000 new jobs but got 250,000, markets might cheer. Fall short at 150,000, and you could see a dip. But it’s not just the headline—wages and industry details matter. Strong job growth with flat pay might mean low-paying gigs, so it’s worth digging deeper to get the full picture.
What’s the Story in 2025?
The NFP has seen wild rides, from job losses in the 2008 crisis to big gains after COVID in 2021–2022. Now, in August 2025, it’s a mixed bag. Tech and healthcare are hiring strong, but construction’s feeling the pinch from higher rates. Wages are a hot topic—if they keep climbing, it could mean pricier groceries or gas, pushing the Fed to act.
The Not-So-Perfect Side
No report’s flawless. The NFP misses farmers, freelancers, and others, so it’s not the whole story. Revisions can change things, and seasonal fixes sometimes blur the real picture. Plus, it’s a lagging indicator, showing what’s already happened rather than predicting the future.
Why It’s Worth Your Time
Whether you’re investing, running a business, or just curious about why your coffee’s costing more, the NFP gives you a front-row seat to the economy. In 2025, with inflation and global uncertainties in play, keeping an eye on this report can help you stay in the know—whether it’s for your next career move or understanding market shifts.
So, next time the jobs report hits the news, don’t tune out. It’s more than numbers—it’s a glimpse into America’s economic heartbeat and how it touches your world.