美联储降息周期

In December 2025, the global financial market welcomed a historic turning point. The Federal Reserve not only cut interest rates by 0.25% as scheduled but also, right after finishing its balance sheet reduction in November, quickly reversed course and announced the purchase of $40 billion in bonds within 30 days. This move marks the official start of the Federal Reserve's **third large-scale balance sheet expansion** in its history, following the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. This is not just a simple adjustment of monetary policy, but a clear signal: the U.S. economy has once again entered a 'crisis moment'. #美联储降息周期

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#美联储降息周期 Trump’s latest remarks: hopes the federal funds rate will drop to 1% or lower within a year!

Brothers, the focus of the crypto and macro circles is back — Trump is criticizing the Federal Reserve again! Recently, Trump publicly stated that he hopes the federal funds rate will drop to 1% or even lower within a year, mainly to help the U.S. Treasury reduce the financing costs of its enormous national debt.

This is not the first time; he has been pushing for lower interest rates, but this time he directly mentioned '1% or lower', making a strong statement! Quick Background on Trump’s Reasoning: The scale of U.S. national debt has exceeded $38 trillion, and high interest rates have skyrocketed the cost of borrowing for the government. Low-interest rates can stimulate economic growth, reduce borrowing costs, and also allow the stock market and risk assets (including Bitcoin and others) to soar.

He also emphasized that the next Federal Reserve chair should 'consult his opinion' on interest rate policy and bluntly stated that U.S. interest rates should be the lowest in the world. Latest developments from the Federal Reserve: On December 10, the Fed just cut interest rates by 25 basis points, adjusting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75% (the third rate cut this year, totaling 75 basis points).

However, the dot plot indicates that there may only be one cut each in 2026 and 2027 (with medians at 3.4% and 3.1%), far from the aggressive stance Trump envisions. Powell emphasized the independence of policy, and there are internal disagreements (some officials want to avoid cuts or advocate for larger cuts). Trump’s dissatisfaction: he criticized this rate cut as 'too small, it could have been larger,' and favors dovish figures like Kevin Warsh or Hassett to replace Powell (whose term ends in May 2026).

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Breaking! The Federal Reserve's "invisible liquidity" has arrived, will the market go wild until 2026?
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Brothers, pay attention! This round of operations by the Federal Reserve is more aggressive than expected👇

✅ A 25 basis point rate cut was anticipated, but the real "surprise" is yet to come— the New York Fed suddenly announced it will buy $40 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds over the next 30 days! This is called the "Reserve Management Plan" (RMP), which simply means quietly injecting liquidity into the market!

✅ More importantly, there might be two more rate cuts (a total of 50 basis points) in the first nine months of 2026, and the attitude is surprisingly not as "hawkish" as imagined… savor this rhythm!

✅ Coinbase institutions pointed out directly: this round of liquidity injection has come earlier than expected! Liquidity might support until April 2026. Transitioning from "tapering" to "net injection," isn't this just mild quantitative easing? It has even been referred to as "invisible QE"!

💥 Here comes the key point: the quiet influx of liquidity means what for the crypto market? Historical experience shows that when "water" comes, asset prices tend to get volatile… will Bitcoin and mainstream coins be supported?

However— can we shout “bull market” now? Not so fast! Liquidity is just one of the fuels; market sentiment and regulatory dynamics can still create turbulence. But… is the bear market still here? This question is worth pondering!

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👇 What do you think of this round of “invisible liquidity”? Will the market start early? Let’s discuss in the comments!
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🔥The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points! Is it a trend turning point or a smokescreen?🚀

In-depth analysis in the live room:
What signals are hidden behind the rate cut?📈 Will the market buy it?
Is it the starting point of a new round of market trends, or a trap?
Hurry into the live room to see the direction clearly in advance!👇

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🤔 Understanding the Federal Reserve's 'Two Hands': Lowering Interest Rates and Expanding the Balance Sheet, What Are They Really Doing?

Recently, market news has been a bit dazzling: the Federal Reserve is lowering interest rates on one hand while purchasing hundreds of billions in government bonds each month (expanding the balance sheet) on the other. Many friends are confused: is this 'injecting liquidity' or 'withdrawing liquidity'? In fact, this is the key to understanding the current macroeconomic chess game.

Core Essence: The Purposes are Completely Different
You can view lowering interest rates and expanding the balance sheet as the Federal Reserve's 'two hands', but they are doing two different things:

⭐️ Lowering Interest Rates (Right Hand - Adjusting the Economy): The goal is to stimulate or cool the overall economy. Lowering interest rates makes loans cheaper for businesses and individuals, thereby encouraging investment and consumption.
⭐️ Expanding the Balance Sheet (Left Hand - Maintaining Stability): The goal is to ensure that the financial system does not 'run out of liquidity'. By purchasing assets (such as government bonds), it directly injects reserves into the banking system, preventing a liquidity shortage from causing market dysfunction.

Current Combination: Each Playing Its Role in 'Loosening and Stabilizing', is a 'Combination Punch' of these two tools:

1. Lowering Interest Rates: Possibly due to concerns about the economy or job market, aimed at supporting the economy.
2. Expanding the Balance Sheet (such as the recent monthly $40 billion in bond purchases): This is due to the fact that after the last round of balance sheet reduction, bank reserves became indeed tight, technically 'injecting liquidity' to prevent short-term interest rates from spiraling out of control.

Therefore, it cannot simply be understood as 'massive liquidity injection'. This is a delicate operation of both 'stabilizing the economy' and 'preventing risks'.

Historical Combinations: Three Classic Models
The relationship between these two hands is not fixed; historically, there have been three main combinations:

⭐️ Double Easing (Lowering Interest Rates + Large Balance Sheet Expansion): Responding to crises, strong stimulation (like in 2020)
⭐️ One Loosening One Tightening: Policy objectives separated, maintaining stability
⭐️ Double Tightening (Raising Interest Rates + Balance Sheet Reduction): Fighting high inflation (like in 2022)

Implications for the Market
It is crucial to understand this: the current 'technical balance sheet expansion' mainly restores financial liquidity, while 'lowering interest rates' conveys an attitude towards the economic outlook. The improvement in liquidity (expansion of the balance sheet) provides fundamental support, while the direction of the interest rate path (lowering interest rates) affects medium- to long-term expectations. Understanding the coordination of these 'two hands' allows for a clearer judgment of the underlying logic of the market.
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💥Breaking! The Federal Reserve 'freezes' interest rates until 2026? 75% probability remains unchanged, is the market about to change?
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Fresh data explosion at midnight🔥: According to CME's 'Federal Reserve Watch', by January 2026, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged is as high as 75.69%! In other words, there is over a 70% chance that interest rates will remain 'steady' for the next two years😱

Looking ahead, the probability of a rate cut in March next year is also uncertain: the probability of a cumulative cut of 25 basis points is only 41.4%, while the chance of maintaining the current rate is still 50.5%! What happened to the promised 'rate cut wave'? Could liquidity continue to tighten…

📈A must-read for crypto enthusiasts: What does a long-term sideways interest rate mean for crypto assets?

· If a low interest rate environment does not arrive soon, will market liquidity continue to be under pressure?
· Will the volatility logic of Bitcoin and Ethereum shift from 'rate cut expectations' to 'actual applications'?
· Is the current market situation an opportunity or a challenge? Is your position robust enough to 'withstand the freeze'?

💬Comment section open for discussion:
👉 Do you think the 75% extremely high probability of remaining unchanged indicates that the market is too pessimistic, or is it a rational warning?
👉 If interest rates really freeze until 2026, would you adjust your investment strategy?
👉 Leave a message to share your views, let’s analyze the signals behind the data together!

⚠️Reminder: All data is for reference only, the market is always changing. Invest rationally and good risk management is the way to long-term success!
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Will the Fed's monetary easing lead funds to flood into the crypto space? Join us tonight in the live broadcast as we help you identify the most promising tracks and seize opportunities!
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【Important】The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is in effect, and the bull market continues to run wild! How can the cryptocurrency sector take advantage of this trend? In the live broadcast room, exclusive analysis of the market direction, helping you catch the turning point! Don't miss it!
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The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, trending number one! How will the cryptocurrency market move? Are your positions ready? In the live broadcast room, sharing exclusive strategies, real-time layout
#美联储降息 #美联储降息周期 #加密市场观察

Recently, discussions about the Federal Reserve have been a bit mixed. Let me help you sort it out.
First of all, the much-anticipated "big liquidity injection" may not happen for a while. The latest dot plot shows a very gradual path for interest rate cuts—twice in 2026, once in 2027, and then rates will remain unchanged in 2028. This means that liquidity won't suddenly flood the market, and the expectation of the central bank "opening the floodgates" to create a super cycle of assets needs to be adjusted.

Secondly, regarding the $40 billion in Treasury purchases, many people directly interpret it as "expanding the balance sheet to inject liquidity." But you need to know its full name: RMP (Reserve Maintenance Purchase).

Its purpose is completely different from true quantitative easing (QE).
QE​ = Actively adding new water to the financial system's "pool" to stimulate the economy and the market.

RMP​ = Due to factors like the Treasury drawing water and corporate settlements, the water in the "pool" is about to drop below a safe line, so the Federal Reserve quickly adds some back to prevent the system from running out of water.

So, this is not about starting a new trend; it's about maintaining normal system operations. The Federal Reserve has also clearly stated that these types of purchases will significantly decrease after April next year.

So, what should we watch next?
The real macroeconomic direction hinges on two key data points:
The November non-farm payroll data released on December 16 (which may be weak due to the previous government shutdown).

The November CPI data released on December 18 (the core of the core).
Especially the CPI. If the inflation data for November does not rebound after the rate cuts in September and October, it will clear the way for further easing by the Federal Reserve in the future. Conversely, if inflation rises, the market's expected path for interest rate cuts may be delayed again.

To summarize:
The current macroeconomic picture is—no major liquidity injection, only careful maintenance. The market may have been too optimistic before, and now it needs to return to reality: liquidity won't be tighter, but it won't be significantly eased either.

For traders, this means that the simplistic logic of betting on a "water buffalo" needs to change. In the future, more attention needs to be paid to the strength or weakness of economic data itself, and how the market can find balance again amid this "neither tight nor loose" expectation.

Stay patient and pay attention to the data. #美联储降息 #美联储降息周期 #美联储利率决议即将公布

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The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates again!
The FOMC meeting has just concluded, and Powell has decisively lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%! This is already the third time this year, totaling 75bp, and the market had already predicted it (88% probability), but there were significant internal disagreements: a 9-3 vote, which is quite rare in history!

It's worth noting that at the beginning of the month, the crypto market plummeted due to rumors about Powell, with 170,000 people liquidated for over 500 million dollars. Now, with the interest rate cut + a slight decrease in the dollar + expectations of liquidity easing, this is basically a shot in the arm for risk assets like crypto!

#美联储降息周期

Trump's remarks ignite the market: The Federal Reserve must lower interest rates to the lowest in the world! $BTC $ETH $BNB 小‍🔥奶‍🔥🐶‍🔥‍社🔥‍区🔥‍聊🔥‍天🔥室

Just now, Trump once again fired at the Federal Reserve, directly stating that interest rates should be 'reduced to the lowest globally'! People in the cryptocurrency circle understand at once — this is simply a clear signal for a liquidity frenzy! 🔥

It is important to know that Trump has always prioritized the stock market and asset prices. Once he pressures the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, USD liquidity will surge crazily toward risk assets, and cryptocurrencies have always been the first stop to rise with the tide. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and even MEME coins may usher in a new round of explosive market conditions!

This is not a short-term fluctuation, but a critical signal that policy expectations are beginning to shift. Global capital is already looking for outlets that combine safe haven and growth, and cryptocurrencies are undoubtedly the largest containers. If you are still waiting and watching, you may miss the next wave of early-start windows.

Remember: news is news when it comes out, but trends emerge after they ferment. Now, the seeds of the trend have already been sown.
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Get ready with your positions, maintain your mindset, and wait for the wind to come.

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(Investment advice is at your own risk, rational discussion is welcome 👇)

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📉 Interest rates will eventually decline! Is the bull market really coming?

Regardless of whether the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates this week, the trend of rate cuts is already set! Neuberger Berman's wealth management CIO Shannon Saccoci stated in a recent memo: interest rates will eventually decline, and the U.S. economy may accelerate again—could this be a key signal for the explosion of risk assets?
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🎯 The market is currently swinging wildly in expectations for the Federal Reserve's actions on December 10, but the policy direction has clearly shifted towards easing. Saccoci emphasized that although the timing and magnitude of rate cuts remain uncertain, the “destination” remains unchanged: the interest rate environment will be more accommodative and friendly in the second half of next year.

💥 Here are the key points:

· The trend of declining interest rates is difficult to reverse!
· Is the economy expected to accelerate again?
· The space for risk assets to rise is opening up...

⚠️ Note: Lowering interest rates is not a “one-button bull market” switch; the process will have fluctuations. But does the general direction become increasingly favorable for the market? Is an opportunity brewing?

Ending with a question mark: If interest rates really continue to decline, which assets will run out first? Are you optimistic about the upcoming market? Let's discuss your views in the comments section!
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The bull is still here, but will the Federal Reserve's "rate cut bullet" misfire?
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Late night bombshell! Just now, Anjei Skiba, a big shot at Royal Bank of Canada Global Asset Management, threw out a key point: Tomorrow morning, the Federal Reserve may cut rates, but this could be a "hawkish bullet"!

What kind of operation is this? Simply put: rates are cut, but it might tell you "that's it for now".

The market's originally frenzied "rate cut carnival night" has suddenly shrouded in a layer of fog. Skiba pointed out that the momentum of the U.S. economy is now too strong, possibly "not needing further rate cuts". What does this mean? — A rate cut may not be the beginning of easing, but rather a signal to "pause"!

What’s more concerning is that there are huge internal differences this time. Which committees are jumping out calling for more aggressive rate cuts? These differing opinions are the real powder keg determining the subsequent market direction.

What impact does this have on us?
If it really is a “hawkish rate cut”, will the market rise or fall in the short term? Will those assets that celebrated early suddenly “tweak their backs”? Is the liquidity door opening wider and wider, or quietly closing a crack?

Stop guessing! This Federal Reserve's “high-end session” pulls at your wallet with every word.

After the decision lands tomorrow morning, I will break it down live at the first opportunity: Is this a lifeline for the bull market, or a warning of a reversal? Where are the opportunities, where are the risks? Remember to follow me, don't miss the key演绎!

Tonight, what do you think? Do you think this is “real easing” or “fake moves”? Let’s chat in the comments, and let’s pulse check together!

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