贝森特
5,098 views
11 Discussing
Hot
Latest
See original
Treasury Secretary Leaks Secrets! On the Eve of the 2026 Inflation Crash, Is Your Coin a Top Escape or a Burial?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's words here seem to be about the economy, but every sentence is actually a landmine for the crypto market! Are you still watching the excitement foolishly? Let me peel back a layer for you!
First, he said that the economy needs to be boosted in the first quarter of 2026, and inflation is expected to plummet. Did you understand? The second half of 2025 to the beginning of 2026 could be the key window for a sharp turn in Federal Reserve policy and a return to liquidity! Once the floodgates open, the dollar will flood, and Bitcoin will truly be the "hard currency hedge," but now? They are guiding market expectations, creating the illusion of "controllable inflation," and during this period, any hawkish statements could trigger a sharp market decline!
Second, he repeatedly emphasized that "the Federal Reserve Chairman needs to have an open mindset," while Trump is still intensively interviewing new candidates. What does this mean? The independence of the Federal Reserve may be a mere facade, and future policies will directly serve politics! A compliant Federal Reserve will inevitably create an illusion of prosperity before and after next year's election, and the capital market will be like a shot of adrenaline, but the crypto market is likely to be the first victim of liquidity transfer—stock market attracts capital, crypto market bleeds!
Third, he optimistically predicts a 3.5% GDP growth in 2025, with wage increases solving high prices. Who would believe that! This is clearly to soothe the public while shifting the blame for a possible economic recession in advance. Once the data falls short of expectations, market panic will double back. And the crypto circle will always be the first liquidity pool to be sacrificed!
What should players do:
Don't go All In now! Before the second half of 2025, keep at least 50% in USD and wait for clear signals of a shift in Federal Reserve policy.
Pay attention to the candidates for Federal Reserve Chairman; any non-traditional candidate taking office could trigger a massive market shock, a critical moment for bottom fishing or top escaping.
The inflation narrative is far from over; don't be fooled by the rhetoric of "declining inflation." The depreciation of fiat currency is a long-term trend. Hold onto your underlying Bitcoin positions, but don't leverage!
Here, we don't create idols; we only cultivate traders who can understand signals. The pragmatic strategies of the I Ching and daily points are your best shortcuts to stable profits. #贝森特
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's words here seem to be about the economy, but every sentence is actually a landmine for the crypto market! Are you still watching the excitement foolishly? Let me peel back a layer for you!
First, he said that the economy needs to be boosted in the first quarter of 2026, and inflation is expected to plummet. Did you understand? The second half of 2025 to the beginning of 2026 could be the key window for a sharp turn in Federal Reserve policy and a return to liquidity! Once the floodgates open, the dollar will flood, and Bitcoin will truly be the "hard currency hedge," but now? They are guiding market expectations, creating the illusion of "controllable inflation," and during this period, any hawkish statements could trigger a sharp market decline!
Second, he repeatedly emphasized that "the Federal Reserve Chairman needs to have an open mindset," while Trump is still intensively interviewing new candidates. What does this mean? The independence of the Federal Reserve may be a mere facade, and future policies will directly serve politics! A compliant Federal Reserve will inevitably create an illusion of prosperity before and after next year's election, and the capital market will be like a shot of adrenaline, but the crypto market is likely to be the first victim of liquidity transfer—stock market attracts capital, crypto market bleeds!
Third, he optimistically predicts a 3.5% GDP growth in 2025, with wage increases solving high prices. Who would believe that! This is clearly to soothe the public while shifting the blame for a possible economic recession in advance. Once the data falls short of expectations, market panic will double back. And the crypto circle will always be the first liquidity pool to be sacrificed!
What should players do:
Don't go All In now! Before the second half of 2025, keep at least 50% in USD and wait for clear signals of a shift in Federal Reserve policy.
Pay attention to the candidates for Federal Reserve Chairman; any non-traditional candidate taking office could trigger a massive market shock, a critical moment for bottom fishing or top escaping.
The inflation narrative is far from over; don't be fooled by the rhetoric of "declining inflation." The depreciation of fiat currency is a long-term trend. Hold onto your underlying Bitcoin positions, but don't leverage!
Here, we don't create idols; we only cultivate traders who can understand signals. The pragmatic strategies of the I Ching and daily points are your best shortcuts to stable profits. #贝森特
Translate
#贝森特 昨晚的讲话透露了几个关键点：他警告，如果民主党不避免政府关门，2026年对他们将是“丰收之年”。他还呼吁参议院废除“冗长辩论”，确保政府正常运转。
#美国非农数据超预期
这话的潜台词很明显——围绕《奥巴马平价医疗法案》(ACA)的谈判并不顺利，特朗普政府和共和党目前态度强硬，不愿妥协。
#美SEC推动加密创新监管
如果短期内无法推进ACA法案，明年1月1日将有约2400万人面临保险费上涨，这势必激怒民主党，政府再次停摆的风险非常大！
#加密市场观察
#美国非农数据超预期
这话的潜台词很明显——围绕《奥巴马平价医疗法案》(ACA)的谈判并不顺利，特朗普政府和共和党目前态度强硬，不愿妥协。
#美SEC推动加密创新监管
如果短期内无法推进ACA法案，明年1月1日将有约2400万人面临保险费上涨，这势必激怒民主党，政府再次停摆的风险非常大！
#加密市场观察
See original
Hahaha, the script of #鲍威尔 was actually stolen by #贝森特 ——
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen unusually gave Powell guidance, suggesting a 50 basis point rate cut in September, with a total reduction of 150 to 175 basis points thereafter.
Moreover, it is extremely rare for her to criticize the Bank of Japan for being obviously 'too slow' and suggesting a rate hike.
A Treasury Secretary who should maintain distance from monetary policy is now directly calling out, seeing an analysis that suggests his thinking should be like this——
If we follow Trump's idea of significantly cutting interest rates, capital will also significantly withdraw from U.S. stocks, creating a negative impact.
So it’s best for the U.S. to gradually cut rates while Japan raises rates, continuing to push for a depreciation of the dollar, so that the international profit portion of leading companies, when measured in dollars, can still increase. Leading tech companies can continue to tell a good AI story, ultimately supporting U.S. stocks.
As long as we can keep U.S. stocks afloat until the midterm elections or before the next election, that would be a great achievement!
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen unusually gave Powell guidance, suggesting a 50 basis point rate cut in September, with a total reduction of 150 to 175 basis points thereafter.
Moreover, it is extremely rare for her to criticize the Bank of Japan for being obviously 'too slow' and suggesting a rate hike.
A Treasury Secretary who should maintain distance from monetary policy is now directly calling out, seeing an analysis that suggests his thinking should be like this——
If we follow Trump's idea of significantly cutting interest rates, capital will also significantly withdraw from U.S. stocks, creating a negative impact.
So it’s best for the U.S. to gradually cut rates while Japan raises rates, continuing to push for a depreciation of the dollar, so that the international profit portion of leading companies, when measured in dollars, can still increase. Leading tech companies can continue to tell a good AI story, ultimately supporting U.S. stocks.
As long as we can keep U.S. stocks afloat until the midterm elections or before the next election, that would be a great achievement!
See original
Last night's speech by #贝森特 was very noteworthy!!!!
The logic is: 1. As the Secretary of the Treasury, he has clearly crossed functional boundaries, providing explicit guidance on the future policies of the Federal Reserve. In the past, he avoided making explicit comments on the Fed's interest rate cut path.
2. If interest rates are cut by 150 basis points, it means the terminal rate would be 2.75%. Currently, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 3.68%, implying that the interest rate expectation will only reach 3% by the end of next year, making his guidance significantly more aggressive than market expectations.
3. The logic behind the U.S. needing #降息 and Japan needing to raise interest rates, as mentioned by Bessent, lies in the fact that high interest rates have a clear suppressive effect on U.S. domestic economic growth, credit, real estate, and small to medium-sized banks. Of course, he didn't mention the U.S. government's insane desire for significant interest rate cuts (which could greatly reduce debt interest expenses) following the Great Beautiful Act; for Japan, he believes Japan is starting to escape input inflation and is entering endogenous inflation (where wages and prices grow in sync). If inflation isn't curbed and becomes controlled, raising interest rates could force the global market to passively bear the impact of carry trades. It would be better to gradually raise rates proactively, smoothing the curve and thereby reducing market impact.
4. The larger significance is that Bessent is beginning to seize influence over the market: the underlying logic is that when inflation, fiscal deficits, geopolitical shocks, and duration risks interact, a single interest rate signal is no longer sufficient to dominate pricing power. We're also entering a new phase of fiscal expansion 2.0, where fiscal policy needs a greater voice.
Bessent's intervention is, on one hand, a public pressure on current monetary policy, and on the other hand, a form of 'parallel forward guidance'—it does not rely on the FOMC's dot plot but could have an equally or even greater impact on actual market trading behavior.
The logic is: 1. As the Secretary of the Treasury, he has clearly crossed functional boundaries, providing explicit guidance on the future policies of the Federal Reserve. In the past, he avoided making explicit comments on the Fed's interest rate cut path.
2. If interest rates are cut by 150 basis points, it means the terminal rate would be 2.75%. Currently, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield remains stable at 3.68%, implying that the interest rate expectation will only reach 3% by the end of next year, making his guidance significantly more aggressive than market expectations.
3. The logic behind the U.S. needing #降息 and Japan needing to raise interest rates, as mentioned by Bessent, lies in the fact that high interest rates have a clear suppressive effect on U.S. domestic economic growth, credit, real estate, and small to medium-sized banks. Of course, he didn't mention the U.S. government's insane desire for significant interest rate cuts (which could greatly reduce debt interest expenses) following the Great Beautiful Act; for Japan, he believes Japan is starting to escape input inflation and is entering endogenous inflation (where wages and prices grow in sync). If inflation isn't curbed and becomes controlled, raising interest rates could force the global market to passively bear the impact of carry trades. It would be better to gradually raise rates proactively, smoothing the curve and thereby reducing market impact.
4. The larger significance is that Bessent is beginning to seize influence over the market: the underlying logic is that when inflation, fiscal deficits, geopolitical shocks, and duration risks interact, a single interest rate signal is no longer sufficient to dominate pricing power. We're also entering a new phase of fiscal expansion 2.0, where fiscal policy needs a greater voice.
Bessent's intervention is, on one hand, a public pressure on current monetary policy, and on the other hand, a form of 'parallel forward guidance'—it does not rely on the FOMC's dot plot but could have an equally or even greater impact on actual market trading behavior.
See original
#贝森特 said that before Thanksgiving, the new chairman will enter the final interview, and it will be finalized before Christmas. I learned a bit in advance, and these few people are not completely able to execute Trump's ultra-low interest rate target.
So who the candidates are is still very critical; just changing the people doesn't necessarily mean stability. Let's see who among these people will take the position.
The best scenario is Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett.
So who the candidates are is still very critical; just changing the people doesn't necessarily mean stability. Let's see who among these people will take the position.
The best scenario is Christopher Waller and Kevin Hassett.
See original
Trump's 'Ultimatum' to Bessenet: No Interest Rate Cut, No Job?
U.S. President Trump made strong statements at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum on Wednesday, suggesting that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, he would fire Treasury Secretary Bessenet, and mockingly stated, 'The interest rates are too high; if it cannot be resolved quickly, I'll fire you.'
However, the Federal Reserve independently decides on interest rate policy based on economic data, and firing Bessenet does not help lower interest rates. Recently, several Federal Reserve officials have also expressed caution about inflation and are inclined to oppose further interest rate cuts.
Bessenet
Trump often criticizes the Federal Reserve and Chairman Powell. The Federal Reserve only began its interest rate cut cycle in September this year. He admitted that Bessenet privately advised him not to fire Powell. Although he has publicly expressed a desire to replace Powell multiple times, he backed down this spring when his close aides warned of financial market turmoil. Trump also hinted that Bessenet was the rational voice urging him to keep Powell, while Commerce Secretary Ross was more inclined to advocate for a firing.
However, the Federal Reserve independently decides on interest rate policy based on economic data, and firing Bessenet does not help lower interest rates. Recently, several Federal Reserve officials have also expressed caution about inflation and are inclined to oppose further interest rate cuts.
Bessenet
Trump often criticizes the Federal Reserve and Chairman Powell. The Federal Reserve only began its interest rate cut cycle in September this year. He admitted that Bessenet privately advised him not to fire Powell. Although he has publicly expressed a desire to replace Powell multiple times, he backed down this spring when his close aides warned of financial market turmoil. Trump also hinted that Bessenet was the rational voice urging him to keep Powell, while Commerce Secretary Ross was more inclined to advocate for a firing.
See original
🎁🧧US Treasury Secretary Clarifies: Trump’s $2000 Payment Aimed at Providing Tax Refunds for Low-Income Families, Tariff Windfall Yet to be Decided
On November 12, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: President Trump is talking about providing a $2000 tax refund for families earning less than $100,000, with large-scale refunds expected to be issued in early 2026. There are many possible channels for the distribution of the tariff windfall, and this issue is still under discussion with no decision made yet.
On November 9, Trump stated: "Those who oppose tariffs are fools! We are now the wealthiest and most respected country in the world, with an inflation rate nearly at zero, and the stock market has reached an all-time high. 401k retirement account balances have also hit an all-time high. We generate trillions of dollars in revenue each year and will soon begin to pay off our massive debt of up to $37 trillion. Investment in the US has reached unprecedented levels, with factories and businesses popping up like mushrooms after rain. We will pay everyone at least $2000 in windfalls (excluding high-income individuals!). #贝森特 #消息面
On November 12, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: President Trump is talking about providing a $2000 tax refund for families earning less than $100,000, with large-scale refunds expected to be issued in early 2026. There are many possible channels for the distribution of the tariff windfall, and this issue is still under discussion with no decision made yet.
On November 9, Trump stated: "Those who oppose tariffs are fools! We are now the wealthiest and most respected country in the world, with an inflation rate nearly at zero, and the stock market has reached an all-time high. 401k retirement account balances have also hit an all-time high. We generate trillions of dollars in revenue each year and will soon begin to pay off our massive debt of up to $37 trillion. Investment in the US has reached unprecedented levels, with factories and businesses popping up like mushrooms after rain. We will pay everyone at least $2000 in windfalls (excluding high-income individuals!). #贝森特 #消息面
Today's PNL
2025-11-12
+$42.14
+2.46%
Login to explore more contents