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🟡 Bitcoin price wobbles ahead of Fed’s rate decision
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
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#btc Recently affected by Japan's interest rate hike, it fell below 90,000 yesterday, reaching a low of around 87,000. Previously, the weekly rebound target was expected to be 95,000—97,000, but so far, it has only reached a maximum of 94,500. Under the dual pressure of Japan's interest rate hike and the USD not lowering interest rates in the short to medium term, the rebound strength and sustainability have not met expectations, and the rollover operation has not been completed. In future operations, I will wait for the price to reach the 95,000—97,000 area to roll over; no operations will be conducted if it does not reach the target area. After Japan's interest rate hike, short-term bearishness has been released, and bulls may wait for an opportunity to counterattack, but the specific rebound height is unknown. In the short term, if there are no sudden major bearish events, the strong support level at 80,000 will also be difficult to break. If it breaks below 80,000 in the first quarter of next year, entering a new round of main decline, I will gradually empty in the 70,000 range and wait for a monthly rebound signal to re-enter short positions. The current price is in the oscillation range of 80,000—94,000, and no operations are currently being conducted. In short, if it breaks above 95,000, I will roll to add short positions; if it breaks below 80,000, I will gradually empty.
The process of establishing the short position of $BTC has also not been easy. At the time, it was based on weekly top divergence, bull-bear cycle rules, and pessimistic expectations for the future macro environment. I have held it for over half a year now. In June of this year, I started testing the position above 90,000 (as can be seen from the first S point in the Binance trading system), increasing the position to over 120,000, and then consistently investing in short positions above 100,000 every day. At that time, the market entered a frenzy, and voices calling for 150,000 and 200,000 were rising and falling. I also faced the pressure of being out of the spot market and long positions suffering long-term losses, ultimately controlling the cost of the Binance short position at 108,000. OK and Gate were small positions added after being trapped in the Binance short position, and although the cost was controlled above 120,000, the position size was small, leaving very limited profit space. The layout of the Ethereum short position was later than that of Bitcoin, with the holding cost in each exchange being above 4,600. From initially resisting criticism and insisting on planning to build long short positions, to enduring the agony of being trapped, and finally turning losses into profits, the hardships of this journey can only be truly understood by oneself. (Figure 1 is a chart showing the unrealized loss when it rose to around 125,000.)
The process of establishing the short position of $BTC has also not been easy. At the time, it was based on weekly top divergence, bull-bear cycle rules, and pessimistic expectations for the future macro environment. I have held it for over half a year now. In June of this year, I started testing the position above 90,000 (as can be seen from the first S point in the Binance trading system), increasing the position to over 120,000, and then consistently investing in short positions above 100,000 every day. At that time, the market entered a frenzy, and voices calling for 150,000 and 200,000 were rising and falling. I also faced the pressure of being out of the spot market and long positions suffering long-term losses, ultimately controlling the cost of the Binance short position at 108,000. OK and Gate were small positions added after being trapped in the Binance short position, and although the cost was controlled above 120,000, the position size was small, leaving very limited profit space. The layout of the Ethereum short position was later than that of Bitcoin, with the holding cost in each exchange being above 4,600. From initially resisting criticism and insisting on planning to build long short positions, to enduring the agony of being trapped, and finally turning losses into profits, the hardships of this journey can only be truly understood by oneself. (Figure 1 is a chart showing the unrealized loss when it rose to around 125,000.)
BTCUSDT
Perp
5X
Opening Short
Unrealized PNL
+64,127.70USDT
Keren Policare ZNSY:
大佬带
$BTC - Weekly and Daily Trend Update 💵💵
BTC just closed the weekly candle at $88,100, a red candle with a long wick – a very bad sign, reflecting very poor market sentiment. Another red candle is expected this week, and the price could fall to around the $82,000-$83,000 support level.
This week is also extremely volatile, with Nonfarm Payrolls, retail sales, CPI, etc., all coming out this week. The last two days of the week will also see UK, European, and Japanese earnings announcements (Japan is expected to raise interest rates). With so much news, the price will be extremely volatile, and a sharp decline is expected.
📌Follow me to receive the earliest signals
$SOL #btc
BTC just closed the weekly candle at $88,100, a red candle with a long wick – a very bad sign, reflecting very poor market sentiment. Another red candle is expected this week, and the price could fall to around the $82,000-$83,000 support level.
This week is also extremely volatile, with Nonfarm Payrolls, retail sales, CPI, etc., all coming out this week. The last two days of the week will also see UK, European, and Japanese earnings announcements (Japan is expected to raise interest rates). With so much news, the price will be extremely volatile, and a sharp decline is expected.
📌Follow me to receive the earliest signals
$SOL #btc
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Bitcoin could drop below $70,000 due to Japan's tough policy
If the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raises interest rates on December 19, the first cryptocurrency $BTC could crash to levels around $70,000.
The rise in BoJ rates previously coincided with a correction $BTC of 20–30%
Starting in 2024, every increase in the key rate by the Bank of Japan has been accompanied by a correction in Bitcoin (<t-39/>#btc ) of more than 20%, noted AndrewBTC. Here's how it looks in numbers:
The rise in BoJ rates previously coincided with a correction $BTC of 20–30%
Starting in 2024, every increase in the key rate by the Bank of Japan has been accompanied by a correction in Bitcoin (<t-39/>#btc ) of more than 20%, noted AndrewBTC. Here's how it looks in numbers:
ViktoriaG:
Никто ничего не знает что может быть и как что будет реагировать.
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Many market participants are currently thinking something like this.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $89–$92 000 and is at the lower boundary of the range
On one hand, rates have been lowered, stock markets are rising, and Bitcoin cannot break the ~$94 500–95 000 level, which has served as the upper resistance boundary several times.
Many market participants are currently thinking something like this: the growth has ended, Bitcoin is heading to $50K, altcoins are dead. Some are selling spot at a loss and opening shorts. But it is these sentiments that can fuel the next strong rally — when everyone is in panic, large players will be accumulating. This has happened many times in the market before.
On one hand, rates have been lowered, stock markets are rising, and Bitcoin cannot break the ~$94 500–95 000 level, which has served as the upper resistance boundary several times.
Many market participants are currently thinking something like this: the growth has ended, Bitcoin is heading to $50K, altcoins are dead. Some are selling spot at a loss and opening shorts. But it is these sentiments that can fuel the next strong rally — when everyone is in panic, large players will be accumulating. This has happened many times in the market before.
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$BTC Witnessing strong momentum, and it seems that the rise will continue! 🚀
The current price is $89,811.22, and technical analysis indicates that the price could reach $126,000 in the upcoming period. Some analysts predict that $BTC could reach $175,000 in 2025 and $900,000 in 2030 ¹ ² ³.
*Influencing factors:*
- Purchasing power is strong, and the price maintains the main income zone.
- Some expectations are that $BTC will witness an explosion soon.
- Technological developments and institutional adoption may affect the price.
Let's follow the chart and see if it will reach the target!
Are you ready to ride the wave?
#btc
#Binance
The current price is $89,811.22, and technical analysis indicates that the price could reach $126,000 in the upcoming period. Some analysts predict that $BTC could reach $175,000 in 2025 and $900,000 in 2030 ¹ ² ³.
*Influencing factors:*
- Purchasing power is strong, and the price maintains the main income zone.
- Some expectations are that $BTC will witness an explosion soon.
- Technological developments and institutional adoption may affect the price.
Let's follow the chart and see if it will reach the target!
Are you ready to ride the wave?
#btc
#Binance
ZM:
ما اكتمل الهبوط التصحيحي تحليلك تبع ماك😂
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$BTC 87K tonight is not the bottom, but 85-86K, go strong on shorts guys, maximum seven 150
#btc
$BTC
#btc
$BTC
BTCUSDT
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Feed-Creator-baf90a552:
bố thằng rr
🚨 Bitcoin on the Edge: $75,000 Crash Fears Rise as Japan’s Central Bank Looms
Bitcoin is walking on a knife’s edge this weekend, and the next major move could shock the market. With BTC struggling to hold the psychological $90,000 level, growing macro pressure is raising serious concerns about a deep drop toward $75,000.
The biggest trigger? The Bank of Japan (BoJ).
🔥 BoJ Rate Hike Shock Incoming
According to Polymarket data, there is now a 98% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 5 basis points on December 19. This decision could send shockwaves through global markets and Bitcoin may be one of the biggest casualties.
Why this matters:
• The BoJ has historically maintained ultra-low rates
• A hike signals a major policy shift amid rising inflation
• Markets are not fully priced for the impact yet
⚠️ Dangerous Fed–BoJ Divergence
This move comes just one week after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps, widening the policy gap between the US and Japan. Such divergence often leads to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, a process that has repeatedly triggered sharp risk-asset sell-offs including crypto.
📉 Technical Picture Turning Bearish
From a technical standpoint, BTC is showing worrying signs:
• Price is nearly 29% below its yearly high
• Momentum remains weak near $90,000
• Chart structure suggests a bearish continuation if support fails
If selling pressure accelerates after the BoJ decision, analysts warn that $75,000 could come into play faster than expected.
🧠 Final Take
Bitcoin isn’t just reacting to charts anymore macro forces are taking control. With the BoJ decision around the corner and historical patterns flashing red, the coming week could be one of the most volatile moments for BTC this year.
Stay alert. This move could define the next phase of the market.
#btc
#CryptoNewss
#WriteToEarnUpgrade
Bitcoin is walking on a knife’s edge this weekend, and the next major move could shock the market. With BTC struggling to hold the psychological $90,000 level, growing macro pressure is raising serious concerns about a deep drop toward $75,000.
The biggest trigger? The Bank of Japan (BoJ).
🔥 BoJ Rate Hike Shock Incoming
According to Polymarket data, there is now a 98% probability that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 5 basis points on December 19. This decision could send shockwaves through global markets and Bitcoin may be one of the biggest casualties.
Why this matters:
• The BoJ has historically maintained ultra-low rates
• A hike signals a major policy shift amid rising inflation
• Markets are not fully priced for the impact yet
⚠️ Dangerous Fed–BoJ Divergence
This move comes just one week after the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps, widening the policy gap between the US and Japan. Such divergence often leads to the unwinding of the yen carry trade, a process that has repeatedly triggered sharp risk-asset sell-offs including crypto.
📉 Technical Picture Turning Bearish
From a technical standpoint, BTC is showing worrying signs:
• Price is nearly 29% below its yearly high
• Momentum remains weak near $90,000
• Chart structure suggests a bearish continuation if support fails
If selling pressure accelerates after the BoJ decision, analysts warn that $75,000 could come into play faster than expected.
🧠 Final Take
Bitcoin isn’t just reacting to charts anymore macro forces are taking control. With the BoJ decision around the corner and historical patterns flashing red, the coming week could be one of the most volatile moments for BTC this year.
Stay alert. This move could define the next phase of the market.
#btc
#CryptoNewss
#WriteToEarnUpgrade
ImCryptOpus:
BoJ hike could spark a BTC surge, alt season fuel keeps momentum high, eyes on the next leg ahead. #btc.
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#btc
Technically, the trend is downward and confirmed by breaking the pivot point.
Technically, the sharp selling saturation necessitates caution and preparation for a short-term rebound before continuing the decline.
1- btc Sell
Entry: Price rejection at 88,249.2 (broken strong resistance area)
Stop loss: 89,204.2
Targets: 87,097.8 / 86,630.0 / 86,000.0 / 84,500
2- btc Sell
Entry: Breaking and stabilizing below 86,000.0
Stop loss: 87,097.8
Targets: 85,000.0 / 84,500.0 / 84,000.0
$BTC
Technically, the trend is downward and confirmed by breaking the pivot point.
Technically, the sharp selling saturation necessitates caution and preparation for a short-term rebound before continuing the decline.
1- btc Sell
Entry: Price rejection at 88,249.2 (broken strong resistance area)
Stop loss: 89,204.2
Targets: 87,097.8 / 86,630.0 / 86,000.0 / 84,500
2- btc Sell
Entry: Breaking and stabilizing below 86,000.0
Stop loss: 87,097.8
Targets: 85,000.0 / 84,500.0 / 84,000.0
$BTC
See original
#btc
The pivot point 89,104.2 represents this point as the middle line of defense
A rapid break of the last bottom 86.630 will push traders who relied on the previous bottom to sell, eliminating any chance of a rebound and confirming the search for the painful bottom"
btc sell
Entry: break and stay below 85,500.0
Stop loss: 86,630.0
Targets: 84,000.0 / 83,000.0 / 82,000.0
$BTC
The pivot point 89,104.2 represents this point as the middle line of defense
A rapid break of the last bottom 86.630 will push traders who relied on the previous bottom to sell, eliminating any chance of a rebound and confirming the search for the painful bottom"
btc sell
Entry: break and stay below 85,500.0
Stop loss: 86,630.0
Targets: 84,000.0 / 83,000.0 / 82,000.0
$BTC
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Why is it worth investing in cryptocurrencies with the lowest supply? A beginner's guide
In the world of cryptocurrencies, where thousands of tokens compete for investors' attention, a key factor influencing value is supply. Cryptocurrencies with limited, low supply – meaning with a small number of available units – often become "digital gold" due to the mechanism of scarcity. According to the law of supply and demand, when the number of coins is limited and interest is increasing, their price can significantly rise. It is this feature that attracts long-term investors looking for assets resistant to inflation and speculation.
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According to ChainCatcher, Coinglass data shows that if Bitcoin drops below $86,000, the total liquidation intensity of long positions on major centralized exchanges (CEX) will reach $514 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin surpasses the $90,000 mark, the total liquidation intensity of short orders on major CEX will reach $417 million.
Note: The liquidation chart does not accurately display the number of contracts awaiting liquidation or the exact value of contracts being liquidated. The bars on the liquidation chart represent the significance or strength of each liquidation cluster compared to neighboring clusters. Therefore, the liquidation chart shows the degree of price impact when the asset reaches a certain level. Higher "liquidation bars" indicate that the price will react more strongly to increased liquidity as it reaches that level.#btc $BTC
Note: The liquidation chart does not accurately display the number of contracts awaiting liquidation or the exact value of contracts being liquidated. The bars on the liquidation chart represent the significance or strength of each liquidation cluster compared to neighboring clusters. Therefore, the liquidation chart shows the degree of price impact when the asset reaches a certain level. Higher "liquidation bars" indicate that the price will react more strongly to increased liquidity as it reaches that level.#btc $BTC
Bitcoin Bulls Position for a New Expansion as ETF Cost-Basis Cycle Resets
A Familiar Inflection Point
Bitcoin is once again trading near a critical structural zone. Hovering just below the $90,000 level, price action over recent sessions has remained compressed, with modest daily gains and clearly defined intraday ranges. While surface-level momentum appears muted, a deeper structural signal is drawing increasing attention: the reset of the ETF investor cost-basis cycle.
Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, price behavior has followed a repeatable institutional rhythm. Each major expansion phase has been preceded by a corrective reset toward the average ETF entry level, followed by a multi-month repricing. With this pattern now emerging for the fourth time, market participants are reassessing whether Bitcoin is entering another six-month expansion window with upside potential exceeding 60%.
The ETF Cost-Basis Framework: Bitcoin’s New Market Rhythm
Bitcoin’s market structure has evolved materially since the introduction of spot ETFs. Rather than being driven primarily by retail speculation or halving narratives, price discovery is increasingly shaped by institutional portfolio mechanics.
The recurring pattern has been consistent:
1. Bitcoin breaks into new all-time highs
2. A corrective phase follows as ETF inflows slow
3. Price stabilizes near the average ETF investor cost basis
4. A renewed expansion unfolds over approximately 180 days
This cycle reflects institutional rebalancing behavior rather than sentiment-driven trading. For asset managers allocating 2–5% of portfolios to Bitcoin, rapid price appreciation forces rebalancing as allocations drift higher. During expansions, profit-taking naturally caps momentum. During corrections, reallocation demand emerges as Bitcoin weightings fall below target ranges.
This process converts volatility into a structured accumulation-and-distribution cycle — one that has now repeated multiple times with remarkable consistency.
What Triggered the Current Reset
The latest reset phase began as ETF inflows decelerated following strong accumulation earlier in the year. November saw meaningful profit realization, followed by softer inflows into December, removing a key marginal bid from the market.
At the same time, macro conditions introduced additional pressure. Expectations for aggressive rate cuts have moderated, with markets now pricing a more cautious Federal Reserve path into 2026. Simultaneously, speculation around tighter policy from the Bank of Japan has injected volatility into global liquidity conditions, particularly during low-volume periods.
Together, these factors have pushed Bitcoin toward structural support zones aligned with ETF investor cost bases, with analysts highlighting the $80,000–$75,000 range as a potential equilibrium area if downside pressure persists.
Institutional Positioning Beneath the Surface
Despite short-term weakness, institutional participation remains the defining force in Bitcoin’s current cycle. Spot ETFs now control a significant portion of circulating supply, steadily reducing liquid availability. Large corporate and treasury-style holders continue to influence market dynamics through balance-sheet exposure rather than speculative positioning.
Some entities, particularly those with leveraged acquisition strategies, face valuation sensitivity if price dips below internal thresholds. However, this same pressure historically accelerates the cleansing phase of corrections, transferring supply from weaker hands to longer-term holders.
Early-cycle entrants, with substantial unrealized gains, remain structurally resilient. Late-cycle participants, by contrast, are more sensitive to drawdowns, contributing to volatility during reset phases. This redistribution process has consistently preceded renewed expansion rather than prolonged bear markets.
Technical Structure: Compression, Not Breakdown
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase rather than a structural downtrend:
• Price is compressing beneath key psychological resistance near $90,000
• Volatility has contracted, with controlled intraday ranges
• Support zones are developing above prior cycle cost-basis levels
A clean loss of the $87,800 region could expose lower liquidity pockets near $83,900–$80,000, though such moves are increasingly viewed as structural rebalancing rather than trend invalidation. Conversely, sustained acceptance above $90,000 would signal completion of the reset phase and reactivation of expansion dynamics.
Risk Considerations and Macro Sensitivities
While historical patterns favor continuation, risks remain. Extended ETF outflows, macro tightening surprises, or forced deleveraging among large holders could prolong the reset phase. Bitcoin’s relative performance in 2025, while positive, has lagged some traditional assets, reflecting its transition from speculative instrument to maturing macro allocation.
This maturation reduces parabolic upside but enhances durability. Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a volatile macro asset rather than an isolated speculative trade, aligning returns with broader liquidity conditions.
Conclusion: Structure Favors Continuation, Timing Demands Patience
Bitcoin’s approach toward ETF cost-basis levels has historically marked transition points rather than cycle terminations. With three prior instances resulting in sustained six-month expansions, the current reset appears structurally consistent with accumulation rather than distribution.
While short-term volatility and macro uncertainty persist, the underlying institutional framework remains intact. If historical behavior holds, the coming months are likely to define the next leg of Bitcoin’s evolution — not through speculative excess, but through disciplined capital rotation and structural demand.
Understanding this cycle, rather than reacting to surface-level price noise, remains the defining edge in the current market phase.
#btc $BTC
Bitcoin is once again trading near a critical structural zone. Hovering just below the $90,000 level, price action over recent sessions has remained compressed, with modest daily gains and clearly defined intraday ranges. While surface-level momentum appears muted, a deeper structural signal is drawing increasing attention: the reset of the ETF investor cost-basis cycle.
Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, price behavior has followed a repeatable institutional rhythm. Each major expansion phase has been preceded by a corrective reset toward the average ETF entry level, followed by a multi-month repricing. With this pattern now emerging for the fourth time, market participants are reassessing whether Bitcoin is entering another six-month expansion window with upside potential exceeding 60%.
The ETF Cost-Basis Framework: Bitcoin’s New Market Rhythm
Bitcoin’s market structure has evolved materially since the introduction of spot ETFs. Rather than being driven primarily by retail speculation or halving narratives, price discovery is increasingly shaped by institutional portfolio mechanics.
The recurring pattern has been consistent:
1. Bitcoin breaks into new all-time highs
2. A corrective phase follows as ETF inflows slow
3. Price stabilizes near the average ETF investor cost basis
4. A renewed expansion unfolds over approximately 180 days
This cycle reflects institutional rebalancing behavior rather than sentiment-driven trading. For asset managers allocating 2–5% of portfolios to Bitcoin, rapid price appreciation forces rebalancing as allocations drift higher. During expansions, profit-taking naturally caps momentum. During corrections, reallocation demand emerges as Bitcoin weightings fall below target ranges.
This process converts volatility into a structured accumulation-and-distribution cycle — one that has now repeated multiple times with remarkable consistency.
What Triggered the Current Reset
The latest reset phase began as ETF inflows decelerated following strong accumulation earlier in the year. November saw meaningful profit realization, followed by softer inflows into December, removing a key marginal bid from the market.
At the same time, macro conditions introduced additional pressure. Expectations for aggressive rate cuts have moderated, with markets now pricing a more cautious Federal Reserve path into 2026. Simultaneously, speculation around tighter policy from the Bank of Japan has injected volatility into global liquidity conditions, particularly during low-volume periods.
Together, these factors have pushed Bitcoin toward structural support zones aligned with ETF investor cost bases, with analysts highlighting the $80,000–$75,000 range as a potential equilibrium area if downside pressure persists.
Institutional Positioning Beneath the Surface
Despite short-term weakness, institutional participation remains the defining force in Bitcoin’s current cycle. Spot ETFs now control a significant portion of circulating supply, steadily reducing liquid availability. Large corporate and treasury-style holders continue to influence market dynamics through balance-sheet exposure rather than speculative positioning.
Some entities, particularly those with leveraged acquisition strategies, face valuation sensitivity if price dips below internal thresholds. However, this same pressure historically accelerates the cleansing phase of corrections, transferring supply from weaker hands to longer-term holders.
Early-cycle entrants, with substantial unrealized gains, remain structurally resilient. Late-cycle participants, by contrast, are more sensitive to drawdowns, contributing to volatility during reset phases. This redistribution process has consistently preceded renewed expansion rather than prolonged bear markets.
Technical Structure: Compression, Not Breakdown
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase rather than a structural downtrend:
• Price is compressing beneath key psychological resistance near $90,000
• Volatility has contracted, with controlled intraday ranges
• Support zones are developing above prior cycle cost-basis levels
A clean loss of the $87,800 region could expose lower liquidity pockets near $83,900–$80,000, though such moves are increasingly viewed as structural rebalancing rather than trend invalidation. Conversely, sustained acceptance above $90,000 would signal completion of the reset phase and reactivation of expansion dynamics.
Risk Considerations and Macro Sensitivities
While historical patterns favor continuation, risks remain. Extended ETF outflows, macro tightening surprises, or forced deleveraging among large holders could prolong the reset phase. Bitcoin’s relative performance in 2025, while positive, has lagged some traditional assets, reflecting its transition from speculative instrument to maturing macro allocation.
This maturation reduces parabolic upside but enhances durability. Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like a volatile macro asset rather than an isolated speculative trade, aligning returns with broader liquidity conditions.
Conclusion: Structure Favors Continuation, Timing Demands Patience
Bitcoin’s approach toward ETF cost-basis levels has historically marked transition points rather than cycle terminations. With three prior instances resulting in sustained six-month expansions, the current reset appears structurally consistent with accumulation rather than distribution.
While short-term volatility and macro uncertainty persist, the underlying institutional framework remains intact. If historical behavior holds, the coming months are likely to define the next leg of Bitcoin’s evolution — not through speculative excess, but through disciplined capital rotation and structural demand.
Understanding this cycle, rather than reacting to surface-level price noise, remains the defining edge in the current market phase.
#btc $BTC
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BTC pullback risk is rising! The Nasdaq rebound is stagnating, with $80K becoming the focal point. Bitcoin has rebounded from the low of $80K on November 21 to $93K, but closed last week with a long upper shadow and a small body candle, facing strong rejection above $94K, with selling pressure dominating. Currently, it has dropped back to around $89,600, and the three-week counter-trend rising channel is at risk of breaking. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 2% last week, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, with the weekly MACD turning bearish, suggesting volatility may decline or transmit to BTC (historically strongly positively correlated, with BTC amplifying declines during downturns). The MOVE index (30-day implied volatility of government bonds) has a hammer candlestick, indicating volatility may rise, with global tightening pressure intensifying and risk assets under pressure. Historically, BTC has been negatively correlated with MOVE. Key levels: breaking below the channel bottom, directly probing the $80K low; breaking above $94K-$95K to regain short-term bullishness, with strong resistance at $96K-$100K (50-day SMA + equilibrium cloud).
#btc
#btc
Macro Update: Bank of Japan Policy Risk Adds Short-Term Pressure on Bitcoin
Market attention has shifted toward Japan’s monetary policy outlook, as expectations rise for a potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate adjustment later this month. While social media claims suggesting an imminent $500B ETF liquidation are unverified and misleading, the underlying macro risk is real.
Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, and any tightening by the BoJ could lead to yen carry trade unwinds, temporarily reducing global liquidity. Historically, such conditions have created short-term volatility across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Market Implications
• Stronger JPY may pressure global risk exposure
• $BTC faces near-term headwinds around key support levels
• No confirmed large-scale asset liquidation announced
Strategic Perspective
This development represents a macro volatility catalyst, not a structural shift in Bitcoin’s long-term thesis. Similar policy-driven events in the past have resulted in temporary drawdowns followed by market rebalancing.
Traders should remain risk-aware and disciplined, monitoring key technical levels while avoiding reaction to unconfirmed headlines.
Macro uncertainty favors patience, not panic.
#JapanEconomy #btc
Market attention has shifted toward Japan’s monetary policy outlook, as expectations rise for a potential Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate adjustment later this month. While social media claims suggesting an imminent $500B ETF liquidation are unverified and misleading, the underlying macro risk is real.
Japan remains the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, and any tightening by the BoJ could lead to yen carry trade unwinds, temporarily reducing global liquidity. Historically, such conditions have created short-term volatility across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Market Implications
• Stronger JPY may pressure global risk exposure
• $BTC faces near-term headwinds around key support levels
• No confirmed large-scale asset liquidation announced
Strategic Perspective
This development represents a macro volatility catalyst, not a structural shift in Bitcoin’s long-term thesis. Similar policy-driven events in the past have resulted in temporary drawdowns followed by market rebalancing.
Traders should remain risk-aware and disciplined, monitoring key technical levels while avoiding reaction to unconfirmed headlines.
Macro uncertainty favors patience, not panic.
#JapanEconomy #btc
🔴 SELL Setup (High Probability)
Sell Entry: $BTC
➡️ 89,900 – 90,100
(If price shows rejection / weak candle)
Stop-Loss:
❌ Above 90,400
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: 89,200
🎯 Target 2: 88,600
🎯 Target 3: 88,000
📌 Reason:
Price is below major resistance, trend still weak.
#btc #BTCVSGOLD #CryptoRally
Sell Entry: $BTC
➡️ 89,900 – 90,100
(If price shows rejection / weak candle)
Stop-Loss:
❌ Above 90,400
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: 89,200
🎯 Target 2: 88,600
🎯 Target 3: 88,000
📌 Reason:
Price is below major resistance, trend still weak.
#btc #BTCVSGOLD #CryptoRally
#btc Market alert! 📊 Today's looking like a consolidation day, guys! Expecting a range-bound market between 90,480 and 87,571. Stay cautious! 🤔 $BTC
$ETH
$ETH
See original
In a few days, Japan will raise interest rates. If the interest rate hike does not lead to a collapse, after the liquidity in the U.S. increases, BTC may rise to 100k-110k in January. Then, there will be no 4-year cycle for BTC, entering a long cycle directly, with the dollar's interest rate dropping to 150k by the end of 2026.
#btc
#btc
Bitcoin 🚨🚨
(BTC) likely price tomorrow (short answer): ~$92,000–$94,000 ± normal volatility based on short-term forecasts showing a small possible gain from current levels.
Current price snapshot:
What forecasts say:
Technical forecast projects a slight increase to around $93,500 tomorrow.
Another short-term model suggests a range near $92,900–$93,800.
Important: Bitcoin
#btc #
$BTC
(BTC) likely price tomorrow (short answer): ~$92,000–$94,000 ± normal volatility based on short-term forecasts showing a small possible gain from current levels.
Current price snapshot:
What forecasts say:
Technical forecast projects a slight increase to around $93,500 tomorrow.
Another short-term model suggests a range near $92,900–$93,800.
Important: Bitcoin
#btc #
$BTC
BTC market update
Here’s a clean, sharp, publication-ready version of your BTC take—ideal for X, Telegram, or a market update post. I’ve tightened the language and strengthened the conviction without changing your bias:
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$BTC Market Update #TrumpTariffs #BTCVSGOLD #btc
Bitcoin is trading around $89.5K, stuck in a range after the sharp dump from $107K. The market is no longer trending—it’s waiting for direction.
---
What the Chart Is Saying
BTC bounced aggressively from $80.6K, but that rebound lost momentum quickly
Price is now below MA 7 and MA 25, keeping short-term bias bearish
MA 99 remains far above, confirming this is not an uptrend
Structure resembles post-breakdown consolidation, not accumulation
---
Key Levels to Watch
Support
$88K
$86K
$80.6K
Resistance
$91K – $93K (major)
$99K
---
My View
BTC is firmly in a wait-and-decide zone.
Below $93K → Alts remain weak, volatility stays choppy
Above $93K → Momentum shifts bullish again
Below $86K → Risk of another sharp leg down rises fast$$BTC
$XRP
---
$BTC Market Update #TrumpTariffs #BTCVSGOLD #btc
Bitcoin is trading around $89.5K, stuck in a range after the sharp dump from $107K. The market is no longer trending—it’s waiting for direction.
---
What the Chart Is Saying
BTC bounced aggressively from $80.6K, but that rebound lost momentum quickly
Price is now below MA 7 and MA 25, keeping short-term bias bearish
MA 99 remains far above, confirming this is not an uptrend
Structure resembles post-breakdown consolidation, not accumulation
---
Key Levels to Watch
Support
$88K
$86K
$80.6K
Resistance
$91K – $93K (major)
$99K
---
My View
BTC is firmly in a wait-and-decide zone.
Below $93K → Alts remain weak, volatility stays choppy
Above $93K → Momentum shifts bullish again
Below $86K → Risk of another sharp leg down rises fast$$BTC
$XRP
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