宋锦轩

Bitcoin short-selling pressure intensifies! 75% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies have fallen below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, according to TradingView data. Among the top 100 cryptocurrencies, 75 have prices below the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), indicating strong bearish signals. Core cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, BNB, and XRP are all breaking down, collectively accounting for 78% of the total market capitalization, dragging the overall market down. In comparison to the Nasdaq 100, only 29 stocks exhibit similar weakness, and the breadth of tech stocks still leans bullish. BTC is strongly correlated with the Nasdaq, often amplifying fluctuations during downturns. Only 8 cryptocurrencies (PI, APT, ALGO, FLARE, VET, JUP, IP, KAIA) show an RSI below 30, indicating oversold conditions, while most cryptocurrencies still have room to decline, and panic bottoms have not yet been reached. Breaking the 50/200-day SMA = weak short-term + long-term trends, usually triggering accelerated selling. As the year-end approaches, market breadth is deteriorating, and the risk of chasing small coins is high. Bulls should be alert: there may be another wave of downward probing before a rebound. What do you think of this adjustment?
#btc

Today's cryptocurrency market: Bitcoin rebounds to $89,900, but risk appetite is weak, altcoins are under pressure! Bitcoin has risen from a low of $88,000 on Sunday to $89,900, still far from the high of $94,300 after the Federal Reserve's rate cut. The 24h change is minor, and market sentiment has retreated to the 'extreme fear' zone. The CD20 index has slightly increased by 0.16%, while the CD80 index has decreased by 0.77%, with more than half of the top 100 tokens declining, highlighting the weakness of altcoins. Ethereum and Tron have risen by less than 2%, while AERO, TAO, ZEC, and others have dropped over 4.5%. Liquid staking tokens LDO and ETHFI have risen by about 2%. Derivatives: DOGE futures open interest has reached a new high since November 20, with the funding rate positively indicating bullish sentiment; XRP open interest increased by 3%, and the funding rate is near zero, if it breaks $2 it could turn negative; XLM, MNT, HBAR funding rates are negative, and shorts dominate. Bitcoin's dominance has risen to 58.4% (September 56.8%), and the altcoin seasonal indicator is only 19/100, indicating investors prefer large-cap safe assets. Short-term weakness, risk appetite has not risen. What do you think?
#加密

JPMorgan has launched a tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, accelerating Wall Street's on-chain layout! The $4 trillion asset management giant JPMorgan officially launched the "My OnChain Net Yield Fund (MONY)", with an initial seed capital of $100 million, open this week to qualified investors (minimum $1 million). MONY operates on Ethereum, holding short-term debt instruments, paying interest daily, supporting cash or USDC redemption shares, providing traditional money fund returns + blockchain 24/7 settlement and real-time ownership advantages. Executives stated that customer demand for tokenization is strong, and MONY is an experiment to expand the on-chain product series, collaborating with clients to create a diverse range of options. The tokenized money fund has grown from $3 billion to $9 billion in one year, and the broader tokenized asset market is expected to reach $18.9 trillion by 2033. BlackRock's BUIDL has already raised $2 billion, Franklin Templeton's BENJI is leading the way, and Wall Street giants are collectively entering the scene as the era of on-chain finance arrives!
#加密

BTC pullback risk is rising! The Nasdaq rebound is stagnating, with $80K becoming the focal point. Bitcoin has rebounded from the low of $80K on November 21 to $93K, but closed last week with a long upper shadow and a small body candle, facing strong rejection above $94K, with selling pressure dominating. Currently, it has dropped back to around $89,600, and the three-week counter-trend rising channel is at risk of breaking. The Nasdaq dropped nearly 2% last week, forming a bearish engulfing pattern, with the weekly MACD turning bearish, suggesting volatility may decline or transmit to BTC (historically strongly positively correlated, with BTC amplifying declines during downturns). The MOVE index (30-day implied volatility of government bonds) has a hammer candlestick, indicating volatility may rise, with global tightening pressure intensifying and risk assets under pressure. Historically, BTC has been negatively correlated with MOVE. Key levels: breaking below the channel bottom, directly probing the $80K low; breaking above $94K-$95K to regain short-term bullishness, with strong resistance at $96K-$100K (50-day SMA + equilibrium cloud).

#btc

XRP spot ETF defies the trend, attracting massive investments! Continuous net inflows for 30 days, totaling $975 million! Since its launch on November 13, the US spot XRP ETF has recorded new capital inflows every day, with no net redemptions, accumulating a net inflow of approximately $975 million and total net assets reaching $1.18 billion. This strong performance stands in stark contrast to the recent outflows of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. BTC/ETH funds are affected by interest rate expectations, stock market volatility, and concerns over tech valuations, leading to unstable capital flows. The XRP ETF consistently attracts capital, indicating it is more viewed as a structural allocation tool, appealing to investors seeking differentiated crypto exposure. Demand is driven more by asset-specific factors rather than short-term macro speculation. The evolution of the crypto ETF market is accelerating: funds are no longer only concentrated in BTC/ETH but are shifting towards alternative assets with clear use cases like payment settlement. The XRP ETF has emerged as a new favorite in the compliant channel! Have you jumped on board?

#xrp #btc

Asia Morning Report: Bitcoin hovers around $89,000, traders are on the sidelines, and balance sheets are quietly intervening! Demand quickly cooled after the Fed's rate cut, and liquidity is becoming increasingly scarce as the year-end approaches. Bitcoin has given back some gains, stabilizing in the $89,000 range. Ethereum shows relative resilience, holding onto recent gains, but altcoins are generally under pressure, with market sentiment being cautiously macro-driven. The report indicates: low leverage, suppressed volatility, with capital favoring short-term gains + long-term locking, prioritizing balance sheet optimization over directional bets. On-chain data shows that during the range-bound period, digital asset treasury firms are resuming Bitcoin accumulation—autumn stagnation reasons have eased. Low leverage + long-term holders transferring ownership, price is weak in the short term but downside potential is limited. A rebound requires a return of leverage or macro catalysts. Market overview: BTC: around the $89K range, weak follow-up + low liquidity; ETH: limited demand but lower selling pressure, relatively stable; Gold: near $4,300 historical high, supported by rate cuts + central bank demand; Nikkei 225: opened lower, investors are cautious, focusing on China's November data + the Japanese Tankan survey (manufacturing confidence at a four-year high). End-of-year fluctuations may continue; risk control first! What do you think?

#btc

Current Status of Cryptocurrency: The List of the Most Influential People of 2025 is Out, with Policymakers in the Lead! The list of influential figures is being released this week, focusing on key individuals who shaped the cryptocurrency industry over the past year. Policymakers are in a dominant position, and the industry narrative is shifting from the margins to the mainstream. Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger stated, 'A unified voice will control the cryptocurrency narrative, and public perception is crucial.' The list reflects the industry's efforts to correct long-standing misconceptions and promote a more positive image. Market Structure Update:
The Senate Banking and Agriculture Committee's hearing schedule is yet to be determined, with a list of Democratic priorities circulating, focusing on financial stability, market integrity, and other provisions. Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott emphasized that advancing digital asset legislation will solidify the leading position in financial innovation. Highlights of the week:
The Senate may vote to confirm several nominees, including the Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

Tether intends to acquire Juventus! Plans to invest $1 billion! Stablecoin giant Tether has officially submitted a full cash acquisition proposal, targeting a 65.4% stake in Juventus held by Exor. If successful, it will initiate a public offer for the remaining shares to achieve 100% control. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino (a lifelong Juventus fan) stated: "We have deep respect for Juventus and will support the club's development with solid capital and a long-term vision." If the deal goes through, Tether is prepared to inject $1 billion into the club. In the first three quarters of this year, Tether's net profit exceeded $10 billion, with a market capitalization of USDT at $186 billion, solidifying its dominant position globally. The company already holds over 10% of Juventus shares, and this move marks its further layout in the sports field. The fan token JUV surged 30% upon hearing the news!
#tether

Bitcoin and Ethereum stabilize at $92K/$3,260, Oracle's 11% plunge ignites concerns over the AI bubble! Oracle's stock price saw its largest drop of the year following earnings, with capital expenditures soaring to $50 billion (+$15 billion), but cloud revenue fell short of expectations, leading to market skepticism about the return on AI investments. Tech stocks are collectively under pressure, with the Nasdaq 100 declining. The crypto market is relatively resilient: Bitcoin holds at $92,000, rising 2.6% for the day, with the $90K support being tested; Ethereum rises to $3,260; Solana leads with a 6% increase, while XRP and BNB fluctuate slightly, and Dogecoin shows a small gain. Analyst views: After the Fed's 'hawkish rate cut', internal disagreements over next year's path have increased, and the probability of another rate cut in March is in doubt. Traders are more focused on trend structures rather than chasing highs, with funds leaning towards large-cap assets. AI spending frenzy vs cash flow delays, the market is beginning to demand 'real money'. Short-term risk appetite is under pressure, but the BTC structure remains intact, and if it holds at $92K, there could be opportunities. What do you think? #btc #eth

Is the boring Bitcoin 'green signal' coming? Currently, BTC is stuck in the 91K-92K range, and the trend is so dull that it’s explosive. Even the Federal Reserve's 25bp rate cut has not stirred any waves. But several key signals are quietly turning green:
1️⃣
The medium to long-term MACD (50,100,9) histogram is about to cross above the zero line, and once it lights up with green bars, historically, the average rebound after the same signal is 15%+.
2️⃣
The US Dollar Index DXY has fallen below 98.13 (a new low since October), the MACD has turned negative, a weak dollar = strong risk assets.
3️⃣
The Nasdaq has returned above the 50/100/200-day moving averages, and a rebound in tech stocks is indirectly positive for Bitcoin.
4️⃣
On-chain selling pressure is weakening, and the selling by short-term holders at a loss is nearing its end. The strategy is simple: breaking above the 93,500 dollar trend line = end of the big drop, target 97K-108K; breaking below the 91K channel bottom = continue to explore 80K. Although ETF inflows are weak, selling pressure has exhausted; dull periods often precede big market movements.
Once the MACD green bars light up, it might be the signal to take off. Are you ready?
#btc

Bitcoin rebounds to $93,000 after the Federal Reserve's recent low, altcoins remain under pressure! After the Fed cut interest rates, Bitcoin fell to $89,000 in early trading on Thursday, rebounding to over $93,000 after the U.S. stock market closed, with a slight increase of 24h. The Nasdaq narrowed its decline from 1.5% to 0.25%, the S&P rose slightly, and the Dow increased by 1.3%. Altcoins did not keep up: ADA and AVAX fell by 6%-7%, while Ethereum dropped 3% holding at $3,200. Precious metals surged, with silver skyrocketing 5% to reach a historical high of $64, and gold rising over 1% nearing $4,300. Analyst's view: Bitcoin selling pressure has weakened, the second wave of selling is less intense than the first, and signs of stability are emerging but not yet confirmed; the decoupling of crypto and the stock market is intensifying, and the benefits of interest rate cuts have been digested, with marginal easing no longer supporting; concerns about stagnation in the first half of 2026 are emerging, and the market's focus is shifting to regulation. In the short term, the range is oscillating between $90K-$94K, and a firm stand at $93K would be considered an effective rebound. What do you think?
#btc

Oracle's earnings report fell short of expectations, concerns about the AI bubble reignited, BTC and Nasdaq futures both declined! Oracle released its Q2 earnings report for fiscal year 2026 on Wednesday night, with total revenue of $1.61 billion slightly below expectations, and cloud infrastructure revenue of $4.1 billion also falling short. Although the adjusted EPS of $2.26 exceeded the expected $1.64, new license sales were weak, capital expenditure plans increased to $50 billion, and total debt soared to $99.6 billion (a 25% year-over-year increase), with net debt expected to reach $290 billion by 2028. The stock price plummeted 12% in after-hours trading, dragging down the AI sector: Nvidia and AMD fell by 1%, CoreWeave by 3%. The five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread rose to 117 basis points (the highest since 2022), reflecting a reassessment of risk, but the probability of default is only 1.93% per year, with a cumulative 9% over five years. The Federal Reserve's 25bp rate cut is seen as fully priced in, and hawkish guidance has triggered uncertainty. Bitcoin fell 2.8% below $90,000, and Nasdaq futures dropped 0.8%. The AI debt frenzy vs. delayed actual cash flow has led the market to start questioning the bubble. Short-term risk appetite is under pressure, what do you think?

Bitcoin retraces early week gains, with 90K becoming a key support! On Thursday, the crypto market saw a widespread decline, with Bitcoin dropping 2.4% to $90,250, failing to hold the gains from Tuesday's breakout at $94,500. Ethereum fell 3.4% to $3,208, Solana dropped 5.8%, Dogecoin decreased by 5.5%, and XRP fell 8.6%, with the total market cap retreating to $3.16 trillion. Leverage reset intensifies volatility: $514 million liquidated in 24 hours, long positions lost $376 million, and short positions only $138 million. Analyst's view: The 90K-91K range has been tested multiple times; if it fails, it could drop to 84K; a breakout above 94K and stabilizing at a $3.32 trillion market cap would indicate a real rebound; liquidity depletion + position imbalance may result in a wide range of fluctuations between 84K-100K by year-end. After the Fed's rate cut, guidance leans hawkish, and risk appetite has not risen. Short-term risk control is a priority; as long as 90K holds, bulls still have a chance! What do you think?
#比特币

The crypto market saw liquidations of 514 million dollars, with long positions suffering a loss of 376 million! Over 155,000 traders were liquidated within 24 hours, with the largest single liquidation being 23.18 million dollars in BTC perpetual contracts going to zero. Three leading platforms accounted for 72% of the liquidations, with long positions making up 76%-83%. The market's bullish sentiment was abruptly reversed overnight. Bitcoin and Ethereum led the decline, giving back the gains of the week. With funding rates high and open interest continuing to expand, once momentum stalls, a liquidation cascade can instantly trigger, adding to the selling pressure. Analyst's viewpoint: Although large-scale long position liquidations are painful, they are a healthy deleveraging process. After removing excessive positions, if key support holds, it often serves as a 'cleaning' before the next round of upward movement. Short-term volatility is increasing, risk control is paramount! After the liquidation wave, do you dare to bottom fish?
#加密市场

Bitcoin is weak today: Disagreements over the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts + unclear future path, increasing market uncertainty! The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to 3.25% on Wednesday and announced the purchase of short-term government bonds to manage liquidity. However, two committee members opposed this, suggesting only one more rate cut in 2026, below the market expectation of two cuts, leading traders to be disappointed with the easing policy. Bitcoin fell 2.4% in early trading, breaking below $90,000, while Ethereum dropped 4% to $3,190, and the major index fell over 4%. Analysts say that the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve make the interest rate path uncertain, and the market needs to 'de-leverage' or decline to promote rate cuts. Bitcoin declined along with the stock market, failing to test $94,000. This bond purchase plan is not quantitative easing; it is merely a liquidity buffer to prevent market fractures. Short-term uncertainty continues, with the support level at 91K becoming critical. What do you think of this pullback?
#比特币

XRP selling pressure appears: unable to hold at $2.12, ETF inflows surge by 54%! XRP dropped 4.3% from $2.09 to $2.00 on Wednesday, lagging behind the crypto market by 1%. Weekly average institutional inflows exceed $50%, with a trading volume of 17.28 billion coins (daily average up by 205%), suggesting strategic selling rather than retail panic. News background:
This week, the net inflow of the US spot XRP ETF exceeded $170 million, with no outflow for a week. Exchange balances dropped from 3.95 billion to 2.6 billion within 60 days, indicating a significant supply squeeze. However, the $2.09-$2.10 range has repeatedly failed to break, with active sell orders. Price trend summary:
Intraday volatility of 5.4%, with a peak UTC 19:00 trading volume surge. After a failed breakout, it retraced to $2.00 to establish a bottom, stabilizing at $1.999-$2.005 towards the end of the session. Technical analysis:
Support at the psychological level of $2.00, with a weak zone below at $1.95; resistance at the $2.09-$2.10 wall. High trading volume but weak momentum, leaning bearish in the short term. Multi-month triangular compression tightening, a breakout requires an hourly close above $2.10 + trading volume of 100 million +. Traders should note:
Holding $2.00 is crucial; if broken, watch for $1.95; ETF inflows offset selling pressure, slowing or removing support. Compression tight, next movement will be volatile. Pay attention to signals of declining supply, and once the direction is confirmed, acceleration will follow. XRP rebound is hindered; what are institutions playing at? What do you think?
#xrp

Bhutan has launched the TER gold-backed token! This Himalayan kingdom has released TER, a token backed by physical gold, issued by Gelyup Mindfulness City and custodied by DK Bank, providing a blockchain representation of physical gold. The token operates on a blockchain network, granting investors the portability of digital assets and on-chain transparency while simulating the traditional gold purchasing experience. TER aims to provide international investors with a convenient tokenized version of gold, featuring digital custody and global transferability advantages. Gelyup Mindfulness City, as an innovative zone, utilizes digital assets as financial reserves and components of the ecosystem to achieve economic diversification and a digital future. The announcement states that TER bridges traditional value storage with blockchain finance, with the first phase being directly accessible through DK Bank. This highlights the trend of small economies leveraging blockchain to integrate traditional assets with digital finance, providing a new paradigm for the development of audited reserve digital currencies.
#黄金

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut shows limited volatility, while Bitcoin waits for Japan's developments! Data shows that inflows to exchanges have significantly decreased from the November peak, with large holders reducing deposits and short-term selling pressure easing. Bitcoin has maintained above $91,000 after a 25bp rate cut, as the market watches the Bank of Japan meeting, which may affect global liquidity. The report indicates that since mid-November, short-term holders have been selling at a continued loss, with similar historical signals suggesting that selling pressure is nearly exhausted. Current stability should not be mistaken for confidence, as ETF inflows have shown limited improvement and derivatives positions remain cautious. Gold and silver prices are rising, with silver hitting a new high, driven by strong demand and tight supply. Market overview: BTC fluctuates between 91K-92K, showing limited reaction to interest rate adjustments; ETH hovers around $3,270, lacking a breakthrough catalyst; gold and silver prices strengthen, with the market remaining cautious post-Fed; Nikkei 225 slightly down 0.11%.
Other updates:
Official crypto game revealed, with a reward worth $1 million in Solana meme tokens.
Consumer groups attempt to obstruct the U.S. crypto market structure bill. December may become a turning point, with liquidity returning to a risk management first approach. What do you think?
#美联储降息

Is DOGE breaking through or is it a bull market trap? Ethereum's strength drives a break of resistance! DOGE rose 0.81% to $0.1473 on Tuesday, breaking through the key resistance at $0.1470, with trading volume surging 312% (15:00-17:00 GMT), indicating active institutional funds, pushing the price from $0.1406 to a peak of $0.1532. News background:
On-chain active addresses reached 67,511 (the second highest in 3 months), but there was a net outflow of $4.81 million, indicating a diversion of funds. The fundamentals are complex, with initial signs of accumulation emerging. Technical analysis:
Confirmation of an upward channel, with a more solid high-low structure between $0.1469 and $0.1512. However, it is still below the 20-day EMA ($0.1476), and the 50/100/200-day EMA ($0.1649/$0.1836/$0.1975) show a bearish arrangement, exerting resistance. RSI is neutral at 41, MACD is close to a golden cross, with early recovery in momentum. Price movement summary:
Opening stable, retracing after the breakout to stabilize above $0.147, consolidating in the $0.1520-$0.1530 range towards the end. Trader's note:
Maintaining support at $0.1470 is crucial; a breach may see a drop to $0.138; breaking through $0.1522-$0.1530 targets $0.1580-$0.1649. Volume is key, above 600,000/hour supports further rises. DOGE breaks resistance riding on Ethereum's momentum, but caution is needed for a pullback under institutional dominance. What do you think?
#DOGE

XRP failed to hold at $2.12, initial selling pressure appears! Although it briefly touched $2.17, XRP could not maintain its upward momentum, indicating that large holders may be reducing their positions rather than increasing them. The 24-hour trading volume surged by 38%, reflecting active institutional participation, but overall performance lagged behind the cryptocurrency market's 1.77% increase. News Background:
XRP rose 0.5% to $2.0925 on Tuesday, with trading volume far exceeding the weekly average, suggesting participation from professional funds. However, the upward momentum is insufficient, with $2.12 acting as a strong resistance. Technical Analysis:
After breaking $2.197, it quickly retraced, accompanied by 189.7 million tokens changing hands, confirming selling pressure above. In the short term, it is compressed in the range of $2.083-$2.17, with a neutral to bearish structure. The momentum oscillator shows a slight bullish divergence, but the decline in volume offsets this. Price Movement Summary:
After a strong opening, it slid to $2.083, liquidity clearing pushed it up to $2.17, but selling was rapid. The close consolidated between $2.09-$2.10, with $2.09 becoming a psychological support. Trader's Note:
Holding $2.09 will determine the short-term direction; if it breaks, look for $2.05-$2.00; a break above $2.12 requires volume verification, or it may continue to push to $2.17. Institutional participation resembles liquidity harvesting, watch for signals of range contraction. XRP's rebound is hindered, and the direction of large holders remains a mystery. What do you think?
#XRP