etf_fbtc

Bitcoin traditionally develops within approximately four—year cycles, closely related to halvings - events that reduce mining rewards by half. Each cycle includes an accumulation phase, exponential growth after halving, reaching a peak and subsequent correction (bear market). In the current cycle (halving April 2024) we observed a classic pattern: moderate growth from ~$64,000 to a peak of ~$126,000 in October 2025 (+97%), followed by a correction to ~$90,000 by December 2025 (-29% of the peak).


In a series of discussions, I will sequentially analyze the key aspects of this dynamic.:

• Comparison of historical cycles in terms of the volume of coins mined, percentage growth and depth of falls, with the initial forecast of a possible drawdown in 2026 to 80-85%, and then a milder scenario of 50-60% due to record low Bitcoin inflation (~0.85% per annum) and institutional participation.
• Analysis of factors that can mitigate or even prevent a deep bear market: the accumulation of BTC by large corporations (MicroStrategy, etc.), capital inflows through spot ETFs, and the parallel growth of gold as an indicator of demand for "protective" assets.

• An assessment of the real capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs since October 2025 (net outflow of ~ $2.5–4 billion against the background of profit-taking), a comparison of this situation with the rotation in the US technology sector and a forecast of a return of strong inflows in 2026. $BTC

• Analysis of what exactly is putting pressure on the price in the current correction: outflows from ETFs or sales of large holders (whales), as well as the impact of similar instruments on Ethereum.$ETH • Finally, a detailed analysis of the BITO futures ETF, which has lost more than 65% of its share price since its launch in 2021 due to structural features (contango bleed, rollover costs and high fees), despite the overall growth of Bitcoin. #ETF_IBIT #ETF_BITO #ETF_FBTC #ETF_GBTC

This chain of issues reflects the evolution of understanding: from the classical cyclical view to the realization that market maturity, institutional participation, and new financial instruments (primarily spot ETFs) make the current cycle significantly more stable and less susceptible to the extreme drawdowns of previous years. Bitcoin is increasingly behaving as a macro asset sensitive to the Fed's monetary policy, capital flows, and global risk appetite, rather than just as a speculative instrument of early cycles.
PS. perhaps these studies and materials will be used in the future to prepare scientific articles or publications in colleges. Please provide links