ETFs no longer boost cryptocurrency prices, as they did when they launched in 2024.Instead, they increasingly act as a stabilizing layer in the market, absorbing sell orders during corrections rather than amplifying price fluctuations.
Jeri Grober vBZq
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Many people are asking the same question again and again: Why does the crypto market consistently start falling as soon as the U.S. trading session opens?
In my view, this is not a coincidence anymore. Real control over crypto market liquidity is now concentrated in the United States. The largest funds, ETF issuers, institutional players, and capital flows are based there. A small number of major players effectively dictate market direction — primarily through Bitcoin.
The key point is this: the crypto market we used to know no longer exists. In the past, price action was driven largely by crowd psychology — fear, greed, and retail sentiment. That model is gone. Today’s market is dominated by algorithms, institutional capital, and centralized liquidity management.
Altcoins make this especially clear. With very few exceptions, they no longer move independently. When Bitcoin rises, altcoins rise only marginally. When Bitcoin falls, altcoins collapse much harder and are used as the primary source of liquidations. They behave less like independent assets and more like leveraged derivatives of BTC.
In reality, the current crypto market increasingly resembles a single centralized system controlled by a handful of multi-billion-dollar entities. And despite this concentration of power, there is virtually no effective oversight. Everything is justified under the banner of a “free market” — even though that free market effectively ended with the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024.
ETFs were a turning point. They brought institutional money into crypto, but at the same time destroyed equal conditions for retail traders. Retail is no longer trading against other people — it is trading against funds, algorithms, and machines with virtually unlimited liquidity.
This is why traditional market cycles feel broken today. It’s not that the cycles failed — it’s that the market itself has fundamentally changed.
ETFs no longer boost cryptocurrency prices, as they did when they launched in 2024.$BTC
Instead, they increasingly act as a stabilizing layer in the market, absorbing sell orders during corrections rather than amplifying price fluctuations. This is a sign of a mature market infrastructure.
Pressure on the $BTC Mining Sector and Signs of Capitulation
The Bitcoin mining economics are currently under significant pressure. Mining profitability (hashprice) has fallen by approximately 30-35%, from around $55 to $35 per PH/s per day.
The main factors driving this decline are the relatively low price of Bitcoin, increased network difficulty, and minimal transaction fees.
As a result, a significant portion of mining companies are operating with negative margins. With average production costs at approximately $44 per PH/s per day, actual revenue does not exceed $38, leading to equipment shutdowns and the onset of what is known as miner capitulation.
Given current market conditions, it is expected that by 2026, the industry will be dominated by operators with the most resilient economics. These miners have access to cheap electricity (around $0.06 per kWh or less), use highly efficient equipment (less than 20 J/TH), and have sufficient financial liquidity.
An additional constraint on the industry is the declining investment attractiveness of new equipment. The payback period for modern ASIC rigs is estimated at approximately 1,000 days, meaning a low probability of recouping investment before the next halving.
Amid declining profitability, reports and professional communities have documented signs of mining rig shutdowns and the sale of excess equipment. A technical hashrate indicator based on the intersection of 30-day and 60-day moving averages recently generated a historically significant signal indicating a phase of miner capitulation.
This crossover reflects a situation in which unprofitable network participants cease mining en masse and are likely forced to sell previously accumulated bitcoins to cover operating losses. Historically, such signals have often coincided with the end of the capitulation phase and preceded the formation of local price lows in the Bitcoin market.
Despite short-term outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs remain one of the largest structural factors in the market.
By mid-2025, the BlackRock ETF (IBIT) had accumulated over 700,000 BTC—over 3% of the total supply. These assets are stored in cold wallets and are rarely returned to the market, amplifying the effect of a long-term supply contraction.
Conclusion
With shrinking supply, Bitcoin's price is increasingly less reflective of the fundamental processes occurring in the market.
Short-term price movements remain dependent on news, emotions, and speculative pressure, while supply reflects how much of the asset is actually available to the next wave of buyers.
If the current trend continues, even a moderate increase in demand could lead to a sharp price movement. Unlike classic cycles, there is a risk of a scenario in which the market does not provide an extended window for buying $BTC at "low" prices, as a structural supply shortage has already formed.
In early December, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded one of the largest periods of net outflows. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price remained stable, indicating that ETFs were not the key driver of price growth at this point.
Shift of Activity to Derivatives and OTC
Analysts also note weak liquidity in the spot market amid growing derivatives trading volumes, particularly on the CME and other regulated exchanges. This confirms a shift of institutional activity toward instruments that provide price exposure without directly trading the underlying asset.
When Bitcoin's rally is described as "off-exchange," it means that much of the buying pressure isn't reflected on platforms like Binance, Coinbase, or Kraken.
The main accumulation channels include: - OTC trades, used by large investors to minimize market exposure; - derivatives markets (e.g., CME futures); - the withdrawal of coins into cold and private storage for long-term holding.
This shift fundamentally alters the price formation mechanism. A reduction in exchange supply reduces liquidity and is generally bullish. At the same time, this leads to price movement becoming less dependent on traditional spot volumes and visually appearing "contained," despite the presence of significant latent demand.
Essentially, institutional accumulation and the behavior of long-term holders become key factors supporting the price, even if public indicators—such as ETF inflows or spot volumes—appear weak.
Large corporate purchases, including those by Strategy, are typically executed through OTC channels, which masks the real demand pressure from the general public.
This process can be characterized as "volatility absorption": large buyers and new financial instruments withdraw liquidity from traditional exchanges, reducing visible trading activity.
$BTC : OTC Trading and the Transformation of Market Dynamics In December 2025, Bitcoin market dynamics demonstrated an atypical divergence between price action and apparent activity on spot exchanges.
Despite low spot volumes and outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, the asset's price recovered and approached $95,000. This indicates that the main demand was generated outside of public trading venues.
P.S. But then it was again swamped by "winter" market makers and macro news, as it could easily have gone beyond $120,000.
Evidence confirms that the rise was driven by over-the-counter (OTC) accumulation, derivatives market activity, and a structural supply contraction, rather than traditional spot buying. On-chain metrics, declining exchange reserves, and institutional behavior support this interpretation.
From December 2024 to early December 2025, over 403,000 BTC were withdrawn from centralized exchanges. This significantly reduced the available supply for trading and indicates active accumulation outside of public markets.
Wintermute, a market maker, uses a scheme: mass liquidity withdrawal and stop-loss hunting before the price rises again. With retail supply on exchanges shrinking, the circulating BTC volume is decreasing, creating one of the strongest bullish signals on the blockchain.
lesric
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Wintermute dumps the market?
It is reported that in the last few hours the market maker sold BTC for $1.2 billion and ETH for $800 million.
So they're buying it out on Friday, they have stats coming in, and the amounts aren't that big for the American market.
Livi999
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#BREAKING : Manipulation activated again at 10 AM. Bitcoin dropped by $2,000 in 30 minutes as soon as the US market opened. $40 billion wiped off BTC's market capitalization, and $125 million in long positions were liquidated in the last 60 minutes. Just another ordinary day in crypto now.$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT)
That was before, but today the American stock market is volatile. Institutional investors with 15% can already influence the market, as whales are reluctant to buy back the momentary declines, and Christmas is coming soon.
Trader达人
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Bullish
$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) 🚨 BITCOIN IS CRASHING AND THIS IS THE REASON WHY!!! 🤔📢
Bitcoin is down today for a very simple reason, and almost nobody is explaining it properly 📢
It’s coming straight from China, and the timing matters 🤔
That’s right, china’s crashing bitcoin, AGAIN.
Here’s what’s happening 📢📢
China just tightened regulations on domestic Bitcoin mining again 📢
In Xinjiang alone, a huge chunk of mining operations were shut down in December 📢
Roughly 400,000 miners went offline in a very short window 🤔
You can already see it in the data: Network hashrate is down around 8%.
When miners are forced offline like this, a few things happen fast:
– They lose revenue immediately – They need cash to cover costs or relocate – Some are forced to sell BTC into the market – Uncertainty spikes short term
That creates real sell pressure, not the other way around.
This isn’t a long-term bearish signal for Bitcoin.
It’s a temporary supply shock caused by a dumb policy, not demand.
We’ve seen this movie before.
China cracks down → miners shut off → hashrate dips → price wobbles → network adjusts → Bitcoin moves on.
We should expect more pain in the short term, but long term this doesn’t even matter 🔥📢
The debt problem makes the Fed vulnerable to political pressure—likely more cuts in 2026 than the dot plot. This is bullish for BTC in the long term, but with volatility (if yields spike). In an elongated cycle, this will support BTC's recovery to $150k+.
G Trade 033
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Trump warned specifically about this 🇺🇸⚠️
In 2026, the USA will have to borrow trillions of dollars to cover old debts that are reaching their repayment deadlines 💸
📉 What is important to understand here? In previous years, these debts were taken out at nearly zero interest rates 🟢 Now, they need to be refinanced at a higher interest rate 📈 — even despite recent rate cuts
🔍 Why is this a problem? Every 0.1% increase in the key rate means tens of billions of dollars from the budget 💥 That’s why Trump is putting so much pressure on the Fed, demanding a swift rate cut 🏦👇
⚖️ Debt servicing eats into the budget In such moments, the country has only three options: • cut expenses ✂️ • borrow even more 🧾 • devalue the currency 🖨️💵
💡 Money does not go into economic growth, but into interest on debt ⛓️
📊 What usually happens next? • stocks perform worse 📉 • bonds become volatile 🎢 • real estate loses demand 🏠⬇️ • currencies often come under pressure 💱😬
History shows: debt cycles always catch up with the markets ⏳📌 #TRUMP #usa #news #BinanceSquareFamily #Write2Earn
$BTC $ETH $SOL fell on December 15 as traders braced for a busy week of US economic data releases. The decline came amid a sharp rise in forced liquidations in the derivatives market.
Traders use support and resistance levels on charts. When the price failed to confidently break through key psychological or technical levels (for example, $94,000 or $100,000), this triggered selling and a pullback.
still behaves as a risk-on asset with a high beta relative to traditional markets (S&P 500, Nasdaq). This means that even without negative crypto news (such as hacks, regulatory bans, or scandals), declines in the US stock market trigger a correction in BTC due to the overall risk-off dynamics (reduced risk appetite).
Why is this happening?
Strengthening correlation: In 2025, BTC's average correlation with the S&P 500 is 0.5 (vs. 0.29 in 2024), and with the Nasdaq, it is 0.52 (vs. 0.23). BTC reacts to macro factors: pauses in Fed rate cuts, rising yields, inflation, or fears of an AI bubble. Institutional factor: BTC is included in traditional portfolios through spot ETFs (~$100–103 billion AUM) and corporate holdings (MicroStrategy, etc.). During rebalancing or risk-off, institutions reduce exposure to risky assets, including BTC → ETF outflows → selling pressure. High-beta effect: BTC is an "amplified version" of risk assets: it falls more than the market (for example, -29–36% from the peak in Q4 2025 with moderate corrections in the Nasdaq/S&P). Liquidity and sentiment: During risk-off, capital flows to safe havens (gold, bonds), reducing liquidity in crypto. Even without crypto news, this causes liquidations and amplified drawdowns.
150K is the maximum for a normal scenario; there are no economic conditions for further growth.
Tequila Hosler pIA7
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Bullish
Purchased $BTC when it cost $83.000 for $116, and now this piece $BTC has turned into $130. And I predict that $BTC will break upwards in the near future at least $100.000 - $200.000
The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision is already priced in; it doesn't happen overnight. Japan doesn't yet have access to U.S. spot and futures Bitcoin ETFs. They're preparing for this.
Panda Traders
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BIG WEEK AHEAD 🚨.
Guys, I want just two minutes of your time.If you trade Spot or Futures, this upcoming week is very important. Let me explain 👇 December 16 – Unemployment Rate This data can strongly influence market direction. If the unemployment rate comes out higher than the previous value, it usually signals economic weakness, and markets tend to dump. If the unemployment rate is lower than the previous value, it shows strength, and markets usually pump. December 18 (Thursday) – CPI & Initial Jobless Claims CPI shows where inflation is heading. Right now, expectations are for CPI to come in lower, which can support a market pump. But if CPI comes out higher than expected, the market can dump heavily. Initial jobless claims will also help confirm whether pressure in the job market is increasing or easing. December 19 (Friday) – Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision 🇯🇵 This is a major event. If Japan hikes interest rates, global liquidity tightens. In that case, markets can dump sharply, and Bitcoin could fall toward the $70,000 zone. It could be a very rough day for the overall market. So what should you do as a trader? For Futures traders ⚠️ This week will be volatile. If you trade futures, you must use strict stop-losses and very calculated entries. The setups we provide are designed with proper risk-to-reward and controlled risk, so even if a stop-loss is hit, losses remain limited. Discipline is more important than aggression this week. For Spot traders 🧠 If the market dumps, don’t panic. Volatility often creates opportunities to buy strong coins at discounted prices. Be prepared mentally and financially for those zones. As always, we’ll keep you updated. If there’s any confirmed news, early signal, or major move before or during these events, we’ll inform you in advance. One more thing 👇 Bitcoin is already moving exactly as we predicited yesterday. We told that it will have a releif pump fro. 87 - 88k zone From the $87–88K zone, we clearly said BTC would bounce back toward the $90–91K zone. That move is already playing out. For now, stay patient, stay disciplined, and stay informed. If you want to stay ahead of the market ahead of 99% of traders keep following Panda Traders, the most trusted trading platform🥰 $BTC $SOL $BNB {future}(BTCUSDT)
Is BTC moving from a "four-year hype"to a "macro liquidity cycle"? Is someone failing to keep up with the new reality?
Binance News
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White House Economic Advisor Faces Opposition for Federal Reserve Chair Nomination
According to Odaily, Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, is facing opposition from senior officials close to U.S. President Donald Trump regarding his candidacy for the Federal Reserve Chair position. Concerns have been raised about Hassett's close relationship with the President.
The market punishes haste and rewards consistency.
Binance News
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Crypto Market Experiences $135 Million Liquidation in One Hour
According to BlockBeats, data from Coinglass reveals that the cryptocurrency market witnessed liquidations totaling $135 million within the past hour. Of this amount, long positions accounted for $123 million, while short positions saw liquidations of $12.43 million.
How BTC is behaving now:Shallow correctionsQuickly bought outVolatility is increasing, but not chaotic📌 This isn't euphoria, but a trend with supply control.
Binance News
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Bitcoin's Bear Market Confirmed by 10x Research Analysis
According to Odaily, 10x Research has declared on the X platform that Bitcoin has undoubtedly entered a bear market. The institution has been analyzing this downturn since October 22, highlighting that on-chain metrics, capital flows, and market structure all indicate the early stages of a broader decline.
10x Research notes that while some investors struggle to profit during bull markets, others can adjust their strategies to achieve returns in bear markets. Each bear market eventually transitions into a new bull cycle, presenting cyclical opportunities that can be leveraged.