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$BTC $ETH $SOL fell on December 15 as traders braced for a busy week of US economic data releases. The decline came amid a sharp rise in forced liquidations in the derivatives market.

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ETFs no longer boost cryptocurrency prices, as they did when they launched in 2024.Instead, they increasingly act as a stabilizing layer in the market, absorbing sell orders during corrections rather than amplifying price fluctuations.

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ETFs no longer boost cryptocurrency prices, as they did when they launched in 2024.$BTC Instead, they increasingly act as a stabilizing layer in the market, absorbing sell orders during corrections rather than amplifying price fluctuations. This is a sign of a mature market infrastructure.

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Pressure on the $BTC Mining Sector and Signs of Capitulation The Bitcoin mining economics are currently under significant pressure. Mining profitability (hashprice) has fallen by approximately 30-35%, from around $55 to $35 per PH/s per day. The main factors driving this decline are the relatively low price of Bitcoin, increased network difficulty, and minimal transaction fees. As a result, a significant portion of mining companies are operating with negative margins. With average production costs at approximately $44 per PH/s per day, actual revenue does not exceed $38, leading to equipment shutdowns and the onset of what is known as miner capitulation. Given current market conditions, it is expected that by 2026, the industry will be dominated by operators with the most resilient economics. These miners have access to cheap electricity (around $0.06 per kWh or less), use highly efficient equipment (less than 20 J/TH), and have sufficient financial liquidity. An additional constraint on the industry is the declining investment attractiveness of new equipment. The payback period for modern ASIC rigs is estimated at approximately 1,000 days, meaning a low probability of recouping investment before the next halving. Amid declining profitability, reports and professional communities have documented signs of mining rig shutdowns and the sale of excess equipment. A technical hashrate indicator based on the intersection of 30-day and 60-day moving averages recently generated a historically significant signal indicating a phase of miner capitulation. This crossover reflects a situation in which unprofitable network participants cease mining en masse and are likely forced to sell previously accumulated bitcoins to cover operating losses. Historically, such signals have often coincided with the end of the capitulation phase and preceded the formation of local price lows in the Bitcoin market.

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Despite short-term outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs remain one of the largest structural factors in the market. By mid-2025, the BlackRock ETF (IBIT) had accumulated over 700,000 BTC—over 3% of the total supply. These assets are stored in cold wallets and are rarely returned to the market, amplifying the effect of a long-term supply contraction. Conclusion With shrinking supply, Bitcoin's price is increasingly less reflective of the fundamental processes occurring in the market. Short-term price movements remain dependent on news, emotions, and speculative pressure, while supply reflects how much of the asset is actually available to the next wave of buyers. If the current trend continues, even a moderate increase in demand could lead to a sharp price movement. Unlike classic cycles, there is a risk of a scenario in which the market does not provide an extended window for buying $BTC at "low" prices, as a structural supply shortage has already formed.

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