Despite short-term outflows, spot Bitcoin ETFs remain one of the largest structural factors in the market.

By mid-2025, the BlackRock ETF (IBIT) had accumulated over 700,000 BTC—over 3% of the total supply. These assets are stored in cold wallets and are rarely returned to the market, amplifying the effect of a long-term supply contraction.

Conclusion

With shrinking supply, Bitcoin's price is increasingly less reflective of the fundamental processes occurring in the market.

Short-term price movements remain dependent on news, emotions, and speculative pressure, while supply reflects how much of the asset is actually available to the next wave of buyers.

If the current trend continues, even a moderate increase in demand could lead to a sharp price movement. Unlike classic cycles, there is a risk of a scenario in which the market does not provide an extended window for buying $BTC at "low" prices, as a structural supply shortage has already formed.