In early December, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded one of the largest periods of net outflows. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price remained stable, indicating that ETFs were not the key driver of price growth at this point.

Shift of Activity to Derivatives and OTC

Analysts also note weak liquidity in the spot market amid growing derivatives trading volumes, particularly on the CME and other regulated exchanges. This confirms a shift of institutional activity toward instruments that provide price exposure without directly trading the underlying asset.

When Bitcoin's rally is described as "off-exchange," it means that much of the buying pressure isn't reflected on platforms like Binance, Coinbase, or Kraken.

The main accumulation channels include:

- OTC trades, used by large investors to minimize market exposure;

- derivatives markets (e.g., CME futures);

- the withdrawal of coins into cold and private storage for long-term holding.

This shift fundamentally alters the price formation mechanism. A reduction in exchange supply reduces liquidity and is generally bullish. At the same time, this leads to price movement becoming less dependent on traditional spot volumes and visually appearing "contained," despite the presence of significant latent demand.

Essentially, institutional accumulation and the behavior of long-term holders become key factors supporting the price, even if public indicators—such as ETF inflows or spot volumes—appear weak.

Large corporate purchases, including those by Strategy, are typically executed through OTC channels, which masks the real demand pressure from the general public.

This process can be characterized as "volatility absorption": large buyers and new financial instruments withdraw liquidity from traditional exchanges, reducing visible trading activity.