etf_ibit

Yes, a complete absence of a correction or bear market in 2026 is possible, but the probability is low (analysts estimate 20-30%). The current cycle (peak ~$126,000 in October 2025, price on December 14, 2025 ~$90,000) is already showing a decline of ~29%, which is typical for the beginning of a bear phase. However, the factors you mentioned—institutional accumulation, ETFs, and the rise in gold—could indeed mitigate or even prevent a deep bear market (a decline of 70-80%+, as in past cycles). Key factors favoring a "soft" or no decline
Institutional accumulations and HODL strategy:
Corporations (MicroStrategy ~650,000 BTC, other public companies >1 million BTC) #MSTR and ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity) hold BTC as a long-term reserve #etf . They don't sell on dips, but frequently repurchase (example: institutional holdings >$400 billion in 2025).
This creates a liquidity "floor": selling pressure is reduced, volatility is falling (already ~75% below the peaks of previous cycles).
Bitcoin ETF: #ETF_IBIT #ETF_BITO
Despite outflows in December 2025 (~$2–4 billion due to profit-taking and basis-trade unwind), overall inflows for the year are positive. ETFs have made BTC part of traditional portfolios—institutions are reallocating rather than panic-selling. Grayscale and other analysts note that the absence of a parabolic rally in this cycle (up only 97% since the halving) reduces the risk of a deep crash/
Gold growth as an indicator: #BTCVSGOLD
Gold +40–55% in 2025 (peaks >$4000/oz) due to inflation, shortages, and geopolitics—BTC often correlates with it as "digital gold."
If gold continues to rise (safe-haven demand), BTC could consolidate or rise sideways, without a sharp decline. However, gold is currently outperforming BTC, indicating a risk-off (fear), which is detrimental to BTC.
Why a decline is still likely (even moderate)
Historical 4-year cycle: A peak ~18 months post-halving is always followed by a correction (77–85%). The current cycle follows a pattern, but market maturity makes it softer (forecast 40-60%).
Current signals: ETF outflows, declining altcoin dominance, macro risks (pause in Fed cuts, tariffs)—these are classic signs of a bear market.
Analyst opinions: Grayscale says "no prolonged bear market 2026" due to institutional pressures; others (CryptoQuant, Reddit) expect a correction, but not a "winter" one (bottom ~$50-70k, not $20k).

Conclusion: A complete absence of a decline is unlikely – the cycle and the current correction (already ~29%) point to a continuation of the bearish phase into 2026. But thanks to institutions, ETFs, and scarcity (inflation ~0.85%), this will be the softest bear in history (at least 50%). If the macro environment improves (Fed cuts, adoption), consolidation and a recovery by 2027–2028 are possible. Monitor ETF flows and on-chain (long-term holders >70%). This is speculative—BTC remains volatile.

Bitcoin traditionally develops within approximately four—year cycles, closely related to halvings - events that reduce mining rewards by half. Each cycle includes an accumulation phase, exponential growth after halving, reaching a peak and subsequent correction (bear market). In the current cycle (halving April 2024) we observed a classic pattern: moderate growth from ~$64,000 to a peak of ~$126,000 in October 2025 (+97%), followed by a correction to ~$90,000 by December 2025 (-29% of the peak).


In a series of discussions, I will sequentially analyze the key aspects of this dynamic.:

• Comparison of historical cycles in terms of the volume of coins mined, percentage growth and depth of falls, with the initial forecast of a possible drawdown in 2026 to 80-85%, and then a milder scenario of 50-60% due to record low Bitcoin inflation (~0.85% per annum) and institutional participation.
• Analysis of factors that can mitigate or even prevent a deep bear market: the accumulation of BTC by large corporations (MicroStrategy, etc.), capital inflows through spot ETFs, and the parallel growth of gold as an indicator of demand for "protective" assets.

• An assessment of the real capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs since October 2025 (net outflow of ~ $2.5–4 billion against the background of profit-taking), a comparison of this situation with the rotation in the US technology sector and a forecast of a return of strong inflows in 2026. $BTC

• Analysis of what exactly is putting pressure on the price in the current correction: outflows from ETFs or sales of large holders (whales), as well as the impact of similar instruments on Ethereum.$ETH • Finally, a detailed analysis of the BITO futures ETF, which has lost more than 65% of its share price since its launch in 2021 due to structural features (contango bleed, rollover costs and high fees), despite the overall growth of Bitcoin. #ETF_IBIT #ETF_BITO #ETF_FBTC #ETF_GBTC

This chain of issues reflects the evolution of understanding: from the classical cyclical view to the realization that market maturity, institutional participation, and new financial instruments (primarily spot ETFs) make the current cycle significantly more stable and less susceptible to the extreme drawdowns of previous years. Bitcoin is increasingly behaving as a macro asset sensitive to the Fed's monetary policy, capital flows, and global risk appetite, rather than just as a speculative instrument of early cycles.
PS. perhaps these studies and materials will be used in the future to prepare scientific articles or publications in colleges. Please provide links