fomc‬⁩

$BTC BTC Price Action: 9.21 PM Snapshot & Analysis 🚀
As we approach the final stretch of the day, Bitcoin (BTC) is navigating a complex technical landscape. Following a volatile session, the market is catching its breath, with traders keeping a close eye on critical psychological and technical levels.
Market Snapshot (9:21 PM)
* Current Price: ~$90,950 (fluctuating near local support)
* 24h Trend: Consolidation within an Ascending Channel
* Key Resistance: $94,150 (immediate) / $100,000 (psychological)
* Key Support: $86,000 / $80,600
Technical Analysis & Sentiment
Bitcoin recently faced rejection after its sharp rally toward the $94k zone. On the 1-hour and 4-hour timeframes, we are seeing a declining volume trend, which suggests that the current upward momentum might be losing some steam.
The Bull Case:
If the bulls can defend the $86,000 level, we may see another attempt to break the $100k barrier before the year-end. Maintaining the mid-line of the current ascending channel is crucial for continued upside.
The Bear Case:
Technical analysts are warning of a "Symmetrical Triangle" breakdown that previously sent prices toward $80k. High-profile traders, like Peter Brandt, have even pointed toward deeper historical pullbacks if parabolic structures continue to weaken.
Macro Outlook: The FOMC Shadow
The primary driver for tonight’s caution is the upcoming US Federal Reserve interest-rate decision. With the market pricing in a 0.25% cut, volatility is expected to spike. Historically, BTC tends to face "pre-FOMC" pressure as investors de-risk ahead of policy signals.
> Trader’s Note: Stay nimble. The 9:21 PM snapshot shows a market in "wait-and-see" mode. Watch for a decisive close above $94k or a breakdown below $86k to confirm the next major leg.
>
Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always DYOR.
#WriteToEarnUpgrade #Bitcoin #CryptoAnalysis #BinanceSquareFamily #FOMC‬⁩

Before the previous FOMC meeting, Bitcoin recovered on expectations of rate cuts. However, during the same period, open interests declined, creating a clear divergence. This indicates that the rally was mainly driven by spot demand rather than derivatives positioning. This episode again emphasizes that a sustainable upward trend in Bitcoin usually requires not only greater spot demand but also a simultaneous expansion of open interests.

#Fed liquidity injection explained
The Federal Reserve’s “liquidity injection” means expanding dollar liquidity in the financial system through operational tools that ease funding conditions. Practically, this includes short-term repurchase agreements (repos), halting balance-sheet runoff (ending quantitative tightening), purchasing short-duration assets like Treasury bills, and adjusting the interest rate paid on bank reserves. Together, these measures reduce funding frictions for banks and dealers, making balance sheets less constrained. In December 2025, the Fed signaled a more flexible stance: ending QT from December 1, issuing an Implementation Note that lowered the interest on reserve balances to 3.65%, and directing the New York Fed’s Open Market Desk accordingly—steps that collectively set a more accommodative liquidity backdrop.

Recent indicators reinforce this shift. The formal end to QT on December 1 pivots structural liquidity toward stabilization and potential gradual expansion. Daily repo operations injected about $13.5 billion—among the largest since the COVID era—providing immediate, short-term funding relief. On December 10, the Implementation Note confirmed the 3.65% reserve rate and operational guidance consistent with the new stance. Reports of T‑bill purchases beginning December 12 point to organized injections that add reserves while limiting duration risk; markets often respond with stronger risk appetite, reflected in rising equities and a softer $USDT dollar around such signals.

Mechanically, each channel targets a different bottleneck: repos unclog daily funding stress; T‑bill purchases add reserves cleanly; ending QT stops structural liquidity drain; and a lower IORB reduces reserve costs and nudges short-term credit channels. That said, injections don’t automatically equal a full easing cycle—scale, cadence, and collateral terms determine the real impact on assets and credit. To stay precise before any formal announcement, watch: New York Fed Desk updates (repo auction calendars, caps, and guidance), the calendar and short-term funding pricing (to gauge policy stance versus temporary liquidity management), daily repo volumes (spikes signal active relief), and T‑bill purchase details (size, frequency, maturities), which reveal how sustained and risk‑controlled the injections are.
$ETH

According to BlockBeats, data from the FedWatch CME tool indicates a 24.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year, while the probability that rates will remain unchanged is 75.6%.
Looking ahead to March, there is a 50.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates. The probability of a cumulative reduction of 25 basis points by that time is 41.4%, while the probability of a cumulative reduction of 50 basis points is 8.1%.