As of February 26, 2025, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted by 7.25% from a high of $92,000 to $87,169 in a single day, further dipping to $84,570 on the 27th, resulting in a cumulative decline of over 8% in two days; Ethereum (ETH) fell from the $2,500 range below the $2,300 support level, reaching a low of $2,255, with a decline of 6.88%. This drastic volatility was mainly driven by three factors:
1. Macroeconomic policy and market sentiment shocks
1. Strengthened expectations for Fed interest rate hikes: The U.S. January CPI data exceeded expectations, rising to 3.0%, coupled with the Trump administration's tariff policies, which led to a stronger dollar and a wave of risk asset sell-offs, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing a record net outflow of $516 million in a single day.
2. Escalating geopolitical risks: The intensification of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the EU's sanctions on Russian cryptocurrency exchanges have led to heightened risk-averse sentiment, further constricting cryptocurrency liquidity.
2. Security incidents and trust crises
The Bybit exchange was hacked, resulting in the theft of $1.5 billion worth of Ethereum, marking the largest theft in cryptocurrency history, directly triggering panic selling in the market. Although the platform promised full compensation, the incident exposed security vulnerabilities of centralized exchanges, exacerbating investors' trust crisis in crypto assets.
3. Technical and capital market resonance
1. Key support for Bitcoin breached: After falling below the psychological threshold of $90,000, it triggered algorithmic trading stop-loss orders, resulting in a "long squeeze" and over $1.5 billion in liquidations across the network within 24 hours.
2. Pressure on the Ethereum ecosystem: The progress of Layer 2 network expansion fell short of expectations, with staking yields dropping to 3.6%, compounded by the exchange's ETH holdings reaching an annual peak (12.5%), leading to continued selling pressure.
Short-term outlook
If Bitcoin fails to maintain the $82,000 support level, it may further test $78,000 (the miner shutdown price), but the December futures contract still maintains a premium of $103,000, indicating institutional confidence in long-term value. Ethereum needs to pay attention to the $2,300 integer support; if breached, it may test $2,100, but the March 11 Cancun upgrade may provide a rebound opportunity.
Risk warning
The Fed's March monetary policy meeting, revisions to U.S. GDP, and the SEC's lawsuit against Coinbase are major risk points. Investors are advised to control their positions (≤20%) and prioritize grid trading strategies to cope with extreme volatility.