The Bitcoin market operates under significant cyclical patterns, with its core mechanism deeply tied to the halving event that occurs every four years, forming observable supply and demand rebalancing cycles. From historical data (validated in 2012, 2016, and 2020), the halving of block rewards structurally compresses the supply of new coins, usually triggering supply-demand imbalance 6-8 months later, catalyzing the formation of a bull market's main upward trend. During this phase, institutional funds and market sentiment create positive feedback, driving BTC prices to break previous highs and continue to set new historical highs.

The transition between bull and bear cycles exhibits strict temporal symmetry, with the period of 18-20 months from the halving date often corresponding to the peak of a bull market. At this time, a clear liquidity inflection point appears in the market, characterized by a continuous outflow of BTC from exchanges and a futures funding rate of #美国加征关税 .