📈 MACROECONOMICS: EXPECTATIONS FOR THE DAY
Today the market pauses. The Federal Reserve announces its decision on interest rates, releases new economic projections, and shortly after, Jerome Powell takes the podium for the press conference. Everything starts at 3 PM (BRT).
⏰ Agenda:
• 📌 FOMC Economic Projections
• 📌 Monetary Policy Statement
• 📌 Federal Funds Rate (currently between 4.25% and 4.50%)
• 🎙️ 3:30 PM: Powell's press conference
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🔥 What does the market expect?
• The majority bet (95%) is for a cut of 0.25 percentage points.
• There is a smaller chance (around 17%) of a more aggressive cut of 0.50 percentage points — a scenario that would surprise and could boost volatility.
The detail that will really affect prices is Powell's tone:
• If he signals more cuts → stocks and crypto could accelerate.
• If he is cautious → there is a risk of "sell the news" and profit-taking.
⸻
💵 Dollar & Stocks
The dollar has been retreating against the euro and other currencies, approaching four-year lows.
In the U.S., stock futures are slightly rising, fueled by expectations of a more dovish Fed and retail data that will also be released today.
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Bitcoin remains above $116,000, boosted by robust inflows into spot ETFs (over $2.3 billion in the last week).
This flow shows that investors are willing to take on risk even before the Fed's decision.
👉 Some analysts project that if the cut comes with continuous inflows into ETFs, BTC could aim for up to $150,000.
But be careful: Powell's speech will be crucial to confirm or curb this expectation.
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📌 Possible scenarios:
• ✅ Cut of 0.25 percentage points + dovish speech → relief, stocks and crypto up.
• 🚀 Cut of 0.50 percentage points → stronger rally, especially in tech and crypto.
• ⚠️ Cautious speech → negative volatility, dollar may gain strength.
• ❌ No cut → shock, strong risk realization.
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