$BTC $ETH #加密市场回调 Weekly decline begins, analysis of short-term rebound opportunities for Bitcoin and Ethereum

At the beginning of November, we had indicated risks for Bitcoin below 100,000, and now it has broken below the 90,000 mark, with a high probability of a weekly-level decline starting, and the short-term target of 150,000 is off the table.

In the medium to long term for Bitcoin, the weekly-level rise from 49,000 to 126,200 has ended, and the monthly MACD death cross signal is clear, with a very low probability of a trend reversal after a 20,000-point surge within 12 days. Referring to historical trends, this wave of weekly decline could end as early as April-May 2026, or as late as October, targeting around 60,000, with the next round of weekly upward movement expected to challenge 250,000. Currently, the daily-level decline may not be over, with a high probability of a rebound in December to 104,000-111,000, and possibly retesting below 78,000 by the end of January 2026.

In the short term, Bitcoin has completed 5 waves of ups and downs at the 4-hour level, currently at the tail end of the fifth wave of decline, with 89,000 as key support. If it holds, a sixth wave of rebound will start, targeting first at 100,000; if it does not break 103,500, it may drop to 84,000, and a breakthrough could bring about a daily-level rebound to 110,000. The 1-hour and 15-minute levels currently show signs of stabilization, and a breakthrough of 93,000 or 95,000 will upgrade to a 4-hour level rebound, which could last until around next Tuesday, otherwise, it may retrace near 88,500.

Ethereum is also weakening, breaking the 3,000 mark, with weekly and daily-level declines underway. In the short term, 2,900 is key support; if it holds, it will rebound to 3,350-3,500, and if it does not break 3,700, it may drop to 2,500-2,600; a breakthrough at the 1-hour level of 3,200 confirms the rebound, while breaking below 2,900 will continue to test lower levels. In the medium to long term, the rebound target for Ethereum in December is 3,850, and from January to April 2026, it may drop to 1,800, and after completing the weekly adjustment, the next round of rise is expected to break through 10,000.

Trend Overview

- Weekly: Downward, Bitcoin target 62,000, Ethereum target 1,800;

- Daily: Downward, current decline may continue;

- 4-hour: Upward, Bitcoin breaking 95,000, Ethereum breaking 3,200 will upgrade the rebound;

- Short-term: Upward, focus on Bitcoin 93,000 and Ethereum 3,200 breakthrough situation.