As the S&P 500 index closed in 2025 with a 14% increase, the total market value of the tech giants MAG7 (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla) surpassed $20 trillion. Global investors have set their sights on 2026—a super cycle starting point referred to by Goldman Sachs as 'the resonance of technological revolution and policy dividends.' This feast driven by AI capital expenditure, dual monetary and fiscal easing, and corporate profits may allow the US stock market to outperform the global market for the fourth consecutive year.
1. AI Revolution: From Hardware Frenzy to Universal Productivity Tools
In 2025, the US stock market has evolved from 'concept hype' to 'money-making machine' with AI:
Hardware Layer Monopoly: Nvidia's data center chip orders extend to 2027, gross margin exceeds 75%; TSMC's 3nm process capacity utilization exceeds 95%, foundry fees increase by 20% annually.
Application Layer Explosion: Google Gemini AI agent has replaced 30% of customer service positions, Microsoft's Copilot enterprise version penetration rate reaches 45%, Meta's ad embedding technology creates a new market worth $20 billion.
Capital Expenditure Surge: Global tech giants' AI investments will reach $3 trillion over the next two years, with 60% financed through bonds. The high-yield bond market sees a surge in demand from AI financing, with spreads narrowing to 2.8% (compressed by 120 basis points compared to 2024).
Valuation Controversy: MAG7's average P/E ratio reaches 35 times (S&P 500 at 22 times), but Morgan Stanley points out: 'When AI drives S&P 500 earnings to increase by 17% annually, high valuations can be digested.'
Opportunities: Continue to hold MAG7, but be wary of the risk of application layer deployment not meeting expectations. Pay attention to ecosystem companies like Broadcom (custom AI chips), Oracle (database monopoly), Palantir (government AI contracts).
II. Policy Trio: A Rare Easing Combination in Non-Recession Periods
The U.S. stock market in 2026 will enjoy a 'policy honeymoon period':
Fiscal Stimulus: The U.S. (OBBBA Act) reduces corporate taxes by $129 billion, plus the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac releases $240 billion in non-tax revenue, reducing the fiscal deficit ratio from 6.2% to 5.1%.
Monetary Easing: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 50 basis points in the first half of the year, with 2-year Treasury yields dropping to 2.6%, driving a 'steepening bull market' (short-term rates falling faster than long-term rates).
Regulatory Relaxation: In the energy sector, shale oil companies' capital expenditure flexibility increases by 30%, and in the financial sector, regional banks accelerate credit expansion (loan scale increases by 8% annually).
Historical Comparison: This 'fiscal + monetary + regulatory' pro-cyclical combination last appeared in 1988-1989 (S&P 500 annual increase of 27%). Goldman Sachs predicts: '2026 S&P 500 target price of 7800 points (15% increase from current), but volatility will rise to 20% (15% in 2025).'
III. Market Style Shift: From Tech Solo to Blooming Diversity
Although tech stocks remain core, the 2026 market will be more balanced:
Pro-Cyclical Sectors Rise:
Consumer Discretionary: Tesla Cybertruck production breaks 500,000 units, automotive sector annual increase of 25%;
Industrials: Boeing 737 MAX relaunch drives annual increase of 30% in airline stocks, Caterpillar construction equipment orders increase by 20% annually;
Materials: Freeport-McMoRan (copper mining leader) sees stock price increase of 40% annually due to surge in electricity demand from AI data centers.
AI Transformation in Traditional Industries:
Energy: Electricity consumption of AI data centers rises from 0.8% to 1.3% of global GDP, Chevron and ExxonMobil increase green energy investments;
Finance: JPMorgan's AI risk control system reduces credit losses by 30%, regional bank merger wave resurfaces.
Risk Warnings:
Valuation Bubble: Tesla's P/E ratio at 180 times (industry average 40 times), Palantir's P/E ratio at 205 times (software industry average 35 times);
Capital Flows: 57% of fund managers believe U.S. stocks are 'severely overvalued', but CITIC Securities refutes: 'As long as earnings expectations rise and financial conditions remain loose, high valuations can be sustained.'
IV. Your Opportunity: How to Get on This Wealth Train?
Technology Mainline:
Core Holdings: MAG7 (Microsoft, Nvidia, Google as the preferred choices);
Ecosystem Mining: Broadcom (custom AI chips), ServiceNow (enterprise process automation), Snowflake (data cloud).
Pro-Cyclical Allocation:
Mid-Year Increase: Consumer Discretionary (Tesla, Amazon), Industrials (Boeing, Honeywell), Materials (Freeport-McMoRan, Southern Copper);
Hedging Choices: Gold ETF (target price $4500/oz), bullish dollar options (hedging geopolitical risks).
Global Diversification:
India: Tax cuts driving consumption (Tata Group, Reliance Industries);
Brazil: Commodity cycle (Vale, Petrobras);
UAE: Energy transition (Abu Dhabi National Energy Company).
Defensive Strategies:
Bond Allocation: High-yield bonds (supported by AI financing needs), 20-year U.S. Treasuries (benefiting from the rate cut cycle);
Hedging Tools: VIX options (profit during rising volatility), Bitcoin (hedging geopolitical risks).
V. Black Swan Warning: What risks could end the bull market?
Geopolitical Conflicts: Escalation in Taiwan Strait and Middle East may push oil prices to $120/barrel;
Private Credit Crisis: U.S. private credit scale reaches $2.3 trillion, if default rate rises to 5%, it will impact the market;
Federal Reserve Policy Mistake: If rate cuts come too late leading to hard landing, S&P 500 may correct by 20%;
AI Bubble Burst: If commercialization at the application layer does not meet expectations, tech stocks may repeat the 2000 internet bubble.
You at the Historical Turning Point
The U.S. stock market in 2026 will be both a harvest period for the AI revolution and a release period for policy dividends. As Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates said: 'When technology, policy, and market forces move in the same direction, the wealth effect will spread like a tide.' But beneath the tide, there are also reefs—geopolitical issues, credit risks, and policy misjudgments may all become black swans.
For ordinary investors, rather than chasing short-term fluctuations, it is better to adhere to long-term logic: capture innovation dividends in the tech mainline, layout economic recovery in pro-cyclical sectors, diversify risks in global markets, and hedge uncertainties in defensive assets. After all, in this wealth feast, the most dangerous thing has never been overvaluation, but rather missing the opportunity of the era.
(Data sources: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, CITIC Securities, Erdos Media Research. If there are sources, please don't criticize.)#美股2026预测 #2026年比特币元年 #预测
