#市场洞察 #比特币波动性
On Thursday, a wave of sell-offs hit the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index briefly rising before falling nearly 4%, evaporating over $2.7 trillion in market value. Nvidia's stock also dropped over 8% as the positive impact of its earnings report faded. The cryptocurrency market was similarly affected, with market capitalization dropping slightly over 7% on Thursday to just above $3 trillion. Bitcoin fell below $85,000 for the first time since April, and market liquidations surged to $829 million. Both the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market have fallen into the 'extreme fear' zone.

BTC

Analysis of the reasons for the decline

  1. Multiple factors intertwined: macroeconomic concerns and technical market factors working together. The November employment report to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on December 16 is viewed by some as a trigger for the sell-off, but analysts believe this is only part of the reason. The market decline is more a reflection of mechanical fluctuations, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

  2. Impact of Federal Reserve policy: Federal Reserve officials have differing opinions and a cautious attitude, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December. Strong employment data and Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook's emphasis on 'private credit risks are imminent' amplify macroeconomic risks, driving short-term market adjustments.

  3. Market sentiment and operations: The U.S. credit spread has slightly widened, reflecting an increased perception of risk and economic uncertainty among investors, but systemic pressure is limited. The decline is also due to investors hedging by buying put options before NVIDIA's earnings report and non-farm payroll data release; after the data is published, uncertainty dissipates, implied volatility decreases, and market makers selling long positions triggered the initial decline. After prices broke below key technical levels, trend-following strategies exacerbated the downtrend.

  1. Potential positive factors: Chung from Presto stated that if private credit risks spread, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to lean towards interest rate cuts at the December FOMC meeting, which would be beneficial for risk assets including cryptocurrencies. However, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in December has dropped from almost certain a month ago to 35%.

  2. Market sentiment and volatility: Sun from HashKey believes that the recent deterioration in sentiment is caused by a repricing of macro expectations leading to position adjustments, rather than a fundamental collapse. If economic data prompts the government to cut interest rates, the outlook may improve, but strong upward momentum will require additional macroeconomic positives. Given the current macroeconomic outlook and investor sentiment, the market will continue to fluctuate during the year-end portfolio rebalancing fund flow period. NOBI CEO Lawrence Samantha stated that investors face many unknowns, and when uncertainty accumulates, both retail and institutional investors will quickly reduce risks; automated trading system sell-offs can exacerbate panic.